{"id":17171,"date":"2020-12-04T07:09:11","date_gmt":"2020-12-04T06:09:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.com\/?p=17171\/"},"modified":"2020-12-04T07:09:11","modified_gmt":"2020-12-04T06:09:11","slug":"the-end-of-the-oil-era","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.com\/en\/the-end-of-the-oil-era\/","title":{"rendered":"The end of the oil era"},"content":{"rendered":"<table cellspacing=\"0\" cellpadding=\"4\">\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<th>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #e2b365;\">Gold<\/span>\u00a0 1838,81<br \/>\n(<span style=\"color: #008000;\">+1,54%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #e2b365;\">EURUSD<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a01,2144<br \/>\n(<span style=\"color: #008000;\">+2,28%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #e2b365;\">DJIA<\/span>\u00a0 30008<br \/>\n(<span style=\"color: #008000;\">+0,53%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #e2b365;\">OIL.WTI<\/span>\u00a0 46,51<br \/>\n(<span style=\"color: #008000;\">+6,99%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<th>\n<h4 style=\"text-align: center;\"><span style=\"color: #e2b365;\">DAX<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a013202,21<br \/>\n(<span style=\"color: #ff0000;\">-0,34%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p align=\"justify\">While the representatives of OPEC+ countries are holding the final agreements for the upcoming meeting (we recently talked about the nuances and disagreements among member countries), let&#8217;s look at the oil market globally.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong> OIL.WTI<\/strong><\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-17172 aligncenter\" src=\"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.azureedge.net\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/12\/OIL.WTI_.png\" alt=\"OIL.WTI\" width=\"600\" height=\"241\" \/><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">Let us make the following assumption, which will be displeased by so many supporters of black gold. It is possible that the previous year, 2019, showed the maximum historical volume of demand for oil. We will never see this level again. In other words, the demand for oil will be declining.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><br \/>\nHow is this even possible?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">In 2020, demand for oil collapsed in all regions of the world without exception. Black gold producers do not expect demand to recover in 2021. On the other hand, they have high hopes for 2022. On the one hand, there are plans to end the COVID-19 pandemic due to widespread vaccination. On the other hand, it is expected that the deferred demand for a number of services, currently limited due to coronavirus, will increase sharply. For example, travel, business conferences, etc.<br \/>\nBut are the oil producers right? We do not think so. Nobody knows if the epidemic will really be halted in 2022 or if its impact on our lives will only decrease. Even in developed countries, up to 30%-40% of the population does not plan to be vaccinated. And in those same countries in Africa, the majority of the population will not have access to vaccine because of problems with the local health system.<br \/>\nWill the demand for travel regain? Partly yes, but not completely, for one trivial reason. The severe economic crisis will not return middle-class income to its previous level of consumption for several more years. Namely, the middle class was the main engine in the tourism industry.<br \/>\nWell, with conferences in general, everything is sad. Large corporations with the funds to hold them were surprised to find that there was no need to gather hundreds and thousands of employees from dozens of countries in Bangkok or London. Everything can be perfectly organised in an online format. And medium-sized companies simply will not have a budget for such events in the near future.<\/p>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\"><strong><br \/>\nWhat awaits us today?<\/strong><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\">01.30 Retail sales in Australia for October<br \/>\n14.30 Number of new jobs in non-US agricultural sector for November<br \/>\n14.30 US unemployment rate for November<br \/>\n14.30 Change in the number of employees in Canada for November<br \/>\n14.30 Unemployment rate in Canada for November<\/p>\n<hr \/>\n<p style=\"text-align: center;\" align=\"justify\">Important Notes on This Publication:<small> <\/small><\/p>\n<p align=\"justify\"><small>The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Gold\u00a0 1838,81 (+1,54%) EURUSD\u00a0 \u00a01,2144 (+2,28%) DJIA\u00a0 30008 (+0,53%) OIL.WTI\u00a0 46,51 (+6,99%) DAX\u00a0 \u00a013202,21 (-0,34%) While the representatives of OPEC+ countries are holding the final agreements for the upcoming meeting&#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":13158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17171","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v27.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>The end of the oil era | Bernstein Bank<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"While the representatives of OPEC+ 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