{"id":17475,"date":"2021-02-18T07:21:26","date_gmt":"2021-02-18T06:21:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.com\/?p=17475\/"},"modified":"2021-02-18T07:21:26","modified_gmt":"2021-02-18T06:21:26","slug":"is-the-sp-500-a-bubble","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.com\/en\/is-the-sp-500-a-bubble\/","title":{"rendered":"Is the S&P 500 a bubble?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n\n\n
\n

Gold<\/span>\u00a0 1782,525
\n(+0,37%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n

\n

EURUSD<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a01,2043
\n(-0,01%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n

\n

DJIA<\/span>\u00a0 31542
\n(-0,01%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n

\n

OIL.WTI<\/span>\u00a0 61,715
\n(-0,01%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n

\n

DAX<\/span>\u00a0 \u00a013943,50
\n(+0,01%<\/span>)<\/h4>\n<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

The 12-year rise in the US stock market is increasingly scaring investors. And more and more analysts are calling the situation a bubble. However, there are just as many who do not see a bubble. There is a main fundamental factor which for some reason most analysts either forget or do not think about at all.<\/p>\n


\nS&P 500 <\/strong><\/p>\n

\"S&P<\/p>\n

– 80% of companies now going public are unprofitable. That hasn’t happened in over 20 years, not since the dot-com crash.<\/p>\n

– Non-residents bought $400 billion worth of U.S. stocks last year. The previous high was $200 billion and was recorded in 2007, just before the last financial crisis in 2008<\/p>\n

– The broader index, which includes 2,000 US small-cap companies, is now almost 40% above its 200-day simple moving average. This has never been seen before in history.
\n– Fund managers have less than 4% cash on hand, with the rest already invested in assets<\/p>\n

– The level of leveraged funds (leveraged trading), for US equities will soon approach $1 trillion
\n– VIX Fear Index is at multi-year lows<\/p>\n

What can all this lead to? If there is a massive sell-off in equities, then leveraged buyers will be the first to suffer. They will close positions en masse, including on margin calls, pushing the price down even further. That makes sense. But it doesn’t answer the question, “Is there a bubble or not?”<\/p>\n

01.30 Australian Unemployment Rate for January
\n13.30 Update on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
\n14.30 US initial jobless claims for the week<\/p>\n

\n

Important Notes on This Publication: <\/small><\/p>\n

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Gold\u00a0 1782,525 (+0,37%) EURUSD\u00a0 \u00a01,2043 (-0,01%) DJIA\u00a0 31542 (-0,01%) OIL.WTI\u00a0 61,715 (-0,01%) DAX\u00a0 \u00a013943,50 (+0,01%) The 12-year rise in the US stock market is increasingly scaring investors. And more and…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":37,"featured_media":13158,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17475","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nIs the S&P 500 a bubble? | Bernstein Bank<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"The 12-year rise in the US stock market is increasingly scaring investors. 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