{"id":26593,"date":"2023-06-26T13:02:04","date_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:02:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.com\/?p=26593"},"modified":"2023-06-26T13:02:04","modified_gmt":"2023-06-26T11:02:04","slug":"tense-calm","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/bernstein-bank.com\/en\/tense-calm\/","title":{"rendered":"Tense calm"},"content":{"rendered":"

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26<\/strong>.06.2023 \u2013 After the bizarre one-day coup by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the first thing to do is relax in politics and on the stock market. But the march could have been only a small foreshock.
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The stock market players are still cool. But if the nuclear power Russia drifts into a civil war, this will also concern the financial world. Traders should consider putting some of their money into the VIX as a hedge – it will jump up if the situation escalates. Here is the daily chart.<\/p>\n

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Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH<\/p><\/div>\n

Back in September last year, we wrote that Russia’s President Vladimir Putin must respond with an escalation in the face of the successful Ukrainian offensive around Kharkiv and Kherson – he needs successes, otherwise there is a threat of implosion of the Russian Federation. The successes have failed to materialize, and now the Wagner coup marks a turning point.<\/p>\n

Patriot or traitor?<\/strong>
\nYevgeny Prigozhin acted as a patriot and front-line fighter against a corrupt state apparatus. Even if he apparently lacked the support of the army during his march on Moscow and even if many see him as a traitor who shot down his own helicopters, the matter could develop explosive power.
\nFor the mercenary chief has raised some interesting things in recent weeks, which have been circulated thousands of times on his Telegram channel: There are no Nazis in Ukraine, he said; the war was instigated by vain Russian generals; the army leadership is completely incompetent; the rich have taken their children to safety while the poor die on the front lines.<\/p>\n

The cheering in Rostov-on-Don shows that many Russians think alike. They love Russia – but hate the elites who bunker billions abroad and treat themselves to ostentatious palaces. In the army, for example, it is a bad custom for generals to have their recruits build them nice houses. Feudalism at its finest.<\/p>\n

Under pressure to move<\/strong>
\nThe question is how Putin will act now. He has allowed Prigozhin to criticize him for a long time and has miscalculated. Now the Kremlin leader must demonstrate strength; he needs successes – perhaps the talk of a nuclear strike will be followed by action. Or perhaps the Russians will scale back by blowing up the mined Zaporizhia nuclear power plant to stop a Ukrainian advance across contaminated land in the south.
\nIn addition, the tsar must show toughness or the internal decomposition will continue. But if Putin breaks his exile deal with Prigozhin and has him eliminated, the Wagner mercenaries in Russia could revolt. Putin can feel secure only if he wins a convincing victory in Ukraine. And if he keeps a better leash on all dangerous factions in the country in the future. So keep an eye on the real-time news!<\/p>\n

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. <\/small>CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7<\/small><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

26.06.2023 \u2013 After the bizarre one-day coup by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the first thing to do is relax in politics and on the stock market. But the march could…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":41,"featured_media":24553,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-26593","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news"],"yoast_head":"\nTense calm | Bernstein Bank<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"After the bizarre one-day coup by Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, the first thing to do is relax in politics and on the stock market. 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