Gold 1923,475
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DAX 13668,50
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The first newsletter of the year is of course about the first cryptocurrency, and you can see why! On Sunday, Bitcoin was actually trading at $34,800, more than $5,000 higher than in the last days of December.
The first bears on the foreign exchange market and the stock exchanges have been in mischief since the opening of trading on Monday. Massive margin calls and position closures by brokers.
We have warned our subscribers of exactly this development, under the low liquidity conditions during the New Year holidays.
What happens next?
The decisive factor is what happens with the opening of the US trading session. It is possible that the price will fly up by another 10-15% when the stops are closed. There will simply be no one left in the market who wants to short Bitcoin again. However, another scenario is also possible. First, stops are removed above the $35,000 level and then profit taking and a sharp reversal are possible.
This could be favoured by regulators. This is one of the last chances to dramatically defeat bitcoin before everyone in the world realises that it will become a major investment asset for the rest of the year.
We remain conservative
Although BTC has risen 15% in just 3 days of the new year, we still do not expect levels of USD 100,000-200,000-300,000 etc. in 2021. These levels are being vigorously predicted by a growing number of analysts, including from the banking sector. The number of such forecasts is likely to increase sharply in January. Our conservative forecast is that BTC will grow 2-3 times from its closing level of $29,000 by the end of the year. That would be a range of $58,000-$87,000. And of course, we’d love to be wrong on the downside!
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