Gold 1898,535
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EURUSD 1,219
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DJIA 34233,50
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OIL.WTI 65,865
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DAX 15451,50
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An idea that we constantly bring to the attention of our subscribers. Markets are extremely insidious and like to do things that no one expects them to do. This is exactly how the gold market is behaving this year.
XAU
Since the beginning of 2021, inflation has started to accelerate around the world. Commodity prices began to rise rapidly. And gold, which is considered the best defence against inflation, began to fall. And it fell for four months. What did fundamental traders have to do? They had to constantly close their positions on stops. Then they would go long again, hoping that finally an uptrend started. And then they would exit again on stops.
All this went on until the gold began to not interest anyone. The attention of the markets switched to Bitcoin’s rise. Moreover, one of the growth drivers of the first cryptocurrency was the overflow of money from gold ETFs into BTC. As a result, both volatility and trading volumes on the yellow metal fell to an annual low.
It was at this point that we suggested that the market had finally bottomed out. There is simply no one to sell further. The technical and fundamental point of view showed that at any moment an uptrend will start. It began. The whole beauty of the situation for the bulls is that the gold has been rising for a month, and not many people pay attention to this growth. This means that we are still very far from the potential end of the move. The higher the prices go up, the more funds and speculators will go back into the longs, only pushing the price higher.
We noted that the only risk for the bulls is a potential interest rate hike in the US. However, the Fed governor has once again reassured the markets. Rates will not rise for a long time to come. Therefore the nearest psychological resistance is at 2000$. After its passing, the talks that gold is highly undervalued will start again. And predictions of new historical highs for the yellow metal this year.
14.30 US Q1 GDP
14.30 US Durable Goods Orders for April
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