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In recent months, the whole world has been in the vaccination phase. More than half the world’s population had already been vaccinated. All this meant that we were about to go back to our old lives, without lockdowns and distancing. But suddenly an Indian strain of coronavirus has emerged that could make a difference to our future.
GBP/USD
Why do we have a graph of the pound/dollar pair? Because it all starts again with the UK. June 23th marks 5 years since the Brexit referendum data was published, which shocked the whole of Europe. At that time the GBP/USD pair flew downhill and still hasn’t recovered to the previous levels. It can now be affirmatively stated that due to the all-round weakness of the economy, the pound is an outsider currency.
As research shows, the entire UK corporate sector is going to face big problems in the future. Already we can see that the economy of this state is not growing at the rate that was predicted, all because of Brexit.
The pound has a difficult fate ahead of it. It’s likely to be in a range for a long time. The government is having a hard time rocking this system, even though they are forecasting GDP growth of as much as 7% due to the consumer boom.
This is where the Indian strain of coronavirus comes into the picture. There are a huge number of new infections in the UK, even though the country says more than 65% of the population has already been vaccinated. In a month and a half the number of infections has gone from two thousand a day to sixteen. The rate of spread is impressive. What does this mean? Is the vaccine not working? Many questions remain unanswered, but it is time for the government to take action and conduct research in parallel. If nothing is done, the fragile economy will very quickly lose what it has managed to preserve of late.
If we look deeper, let’s imagine that there is such an increase in disease in the US. Restrictions would have to be imposed again. The labour market could collapse again and the economic recovery would be over very quickly.
All forecasts would have to be thrown out and scenarios rewritten. This development could be very painful for the entire global community and set things back a couple of years.
8.00 Gfk consumer confidence index in Germany for June
14.30 US Personal Consumption Expenditure YTD
16.00 US Consumer Confidence Index for June from the University of Michigan
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