10.01.2024 – Applause, applause: the authorisation of the first spot-based index funds for Bitcoin is turning into a thriller. Or is it a comedy of errors? Either way, a seemingly positive message on X/Twitter initially brought relief. Then the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) applied the handbrake: Fake news – there’s no decision yet. The back and forth has burnt a lot of traders – and presumably made the fraudsters rich. Many investors are now betting on ether – things are currently calmer here.
It can happen that quickly: In the midst of the fever of the hoped-for approval, SEC chief Gary Gensler ostensibly gave the go-ahead for Bitcoin ETFs. Then came the cold shower: the whole thing was a hoax. Here is the hourly chart of BTCUSD.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
Particularly embarrassing: Gensler, after all pretty much the most important man in the financial world, was apparently unable to use two-factor authentication for his account. Which is why it was hacked. This is the fake news:
That’s the real denial:
Now the dust is gradually settling and the trader community is starting to ponder. Perhaps the current hype surrounding the market leader BTC is simply too great. Every rumour sends the market into a wild spin. And perhaps it is better to invest in the number two. The daily chart speaks volumes. We are curious to see whether there will soon be turbulence here too.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
If the approval of a Bitcoin ETF does not turn into a “sell the news” event, then Ether is well positioned for a bull market, author Yashu Gola from CoinTelegraph has just stated. From a fundamental perspective, this means that a Bitcoin ETF will increase the exposure of traditional investors and boost demand. In a positive case, Ether could rise to USD 3,870 by March. In the event of a delay or rejection by the SEC, the price could slide to USD 1,865 by February.
Our conclusion: We are curious to see what happens next. Maybe you’ll just enjoy the show with a bag of popcorn. If you do get into the ring, perhaps you should build a straddle or strangle with tight stops and simultaneous long and short positions. Or you could be right with a little play money and strike it rich. Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades and investments!
________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7