01.12.2023 – The DAX on the rise: Fund managers have to invest capital that was previously held in reserve. So that they can point to winning stocks in the annual review and show that they made the right investment. At the moment, there are few disruptive factors that could impair the usual window dressing at the end of the year
This is what a real bull chart looks like: The year-end rally is underway, the picture shows the daily chart of the DAX.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
The experts at DZ Bank explained that the first obstacle to the continuation of the upward movement was the daily high of 16,263 points on 30 November. “Only if this hurdle is sustainably surpassed could the price trend in the following days extend towards the all-time high of 31 July at 16,532 points”. We think so: At the moment, it certainly looks like it.
And ING’s early analysis has now also been overtaken by reality. If the DAX can rise above the high of 16,311 points, a run-up to the resistance area at 16,400 points can be expected. The focus for the short-term price trend in the DAX remains on the 10-EMA (Exponential Moving Average), which most recently stood at 16,035 points. As long as the DAX remains above the 10-EMA, prices are likely to continue rising in the short term.
Why shouldn’t it continue to rise? There is currently hardly any disruptive fire from the news side from the various problem areas: Interest rates in the USA are unlikely to be raised any further for the time being, and the European Central Bank is also likely to change course at some point.
Conflicts continue to smoulder
In politics, everything is going well for the stock market. Always simulate determination, but please don’t act decisively. Ukraine is not making any progress on the front, the West is starving the country to death: the Ukrainian army is only receiving just enough weapons to keep it from buckling, but not enough to win against Russia. The best example of this is the fact that weeks after the promise to deliver one million artillery shells, just 300,000 have arrived. Russia, on the other hand, has apparently received one million shells from North Korea within days.
The war in Gaza continues to smoulder at a low level for the time being, but there has been no escalation. We are curious to see whether the situation will boil up again now that the ceasefire has expired. Meanwhile, politicians in Europe and the USA are doing what they always do: they make grand speeches but stab Israel in the back out of fear of the raging mob and prevent the Arab Waffen SS called Hamas from being eliminated. Of all the scum calling for a caliphate in this country, none have been put behind bars or even deported.
With this in mind, as long as there is no disruptive fire from geopolitics, there is little to be said against a continuation of the upward trend in view of the easing tightening. Perhaps the Federal Reserve still has surprises in store, who knows. We will keep an eye on the situation for you – and wish you successful trades and investments!
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