28.12.2023 – Shockwaves threaten the financial market in the coming year. This is due to Donald Trump: instead of “Orange Man Bad”, the motto of the mainstream media could soon be “Orange Man Back”.
Everything has been fine on the stock market recently: the setbacks following the Ukraine invasion and 07/10 have been offset. The Dow Jones has just posted a new record, which is due to the expected easing of US monetary policy, here is the weekly chart.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
The fact that Russia attacked Ukraine in the first place and that Hamas has now struck out against Israel is also due to the weakness of the current president in the White House. We don’t even need to talk about Europe: Appeasement everywhere. The pace could change soon: Donald Trump is on the doorstep again.
Stalin would be proud
Despite – or precisely because of – the various politically motivated indictments by prosecutors appointed by Democrats and handled by judges who were also installed by the Dems, Trump has been ahead of Joe Biden in the opinion polls for weeks. You can follow this very closely on the website “Realclearpolicitics.com” – where you can also find news that our press likes to sweep under the carpet. Four years ago, Biden had a lead of ten percentage points one year before the election; this time, Trump had pulled away to just over three points.
No wonder. Many voters believe that it is a Stalinist-style political campaign when the Supreme Court of Colorado disqualifies Trump from the election because of an alleged coup attempt, even though there is no conviction for it; or when a left-wing judge in New York ruled before the trial even began that Trump inflated real estate values, even though financing banks saw no problems. The calculation is clear, as the left-wing New York Times has just summed up: a single conviction could be enough to scare enough voters and influence the election in the desired direction.
However, since there is a functioning conservative press in the USA, Americans know about the highly probable corruption of the Biden clan and the FBI’s delay in investigating Hunter Biden. Many voters criticize the fact that Trump was indicted for hoarding sensitive documents, while Joe Biden had nothing to worry about. In short: the left’s “lawfare” is rubbing off on Trump. Still – or always?
Ukraine – China – Middle East
If Donald Trump presents the comeback of the century, it will be exciting. In the case of Ukraine, “The Donald” has already outlined what he would do: he would force Moscow to negotiate. If Russia did not agree, America would supply Ukraine with more weapons than ever before. Ukraine would also have to make concessions. This would probably amount to territorial concessions, which would not be enough for Moscow. This poses the risk of Russia stepping up its attacks before the US election.
Iran would have to be prepared for a tougher stance from Trump, such as the renewed freezing of assets – Biden had released billions, and the various terrorist groups thanked him. The military leadership in Tehran would also no longer be safe, as it is now. Furthermore, the Houthi rebels would probably have to brace themselves for military strikes because of their attacks on global trade. The oil price in particular could react to this risk.
Trump would probably reactivate the trade war with China. In addition, Beijing could feel compelled to attack the island over the Taiwan issue before Trump returns. A Taiwan invasion would be the biggest shock ever for the world’s stock markets.
Our conclusion: Rarely has an election year been as exciting as 2024. Incidentally, Citigroup believes in a red wave and a Republican sweep in the Senate. In this case, taxes would probably fall, which would trigger a new surge in consumption and a buying spree on the stock market. Expect the impossible. We wish you successful trades and investments!
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