Gold 1898,57
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EURUSD 1,2201
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DJIA 34541,50
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OIL.WTI 67,96
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DAX 15564
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On Tuesday, 1 June, WTI crude broke through resistance and hit a new yearly high. Naturally, all eyes immediately turned to black gold. And the questions began. What is it? The beginning of a new trend to the area of $100 per barrel? Or another bull trap, of which there have been many in recent years?
OIL.WTI
Let’s start with the fundamentals. What has changed recently? In principle, nothing has changed. Gradually, developed countries are beating the coronavirus pandemic. But the situation in developing countries is even worse than a year ago. Air travel is also increasing, which means there is a greater demand for aviation fuel. But we all knew that before.
However, there is a potentially new downward factor in the market. It is the possible removal of restrictions on oil exports from Iran. And that will be the real nail in the coffin of the uptrend.
But then why is the oil price rising? You could put the question another way. Are you sure the price of oil is going up? Let’s just say inflation is rising. Oil simply follows the upward trend in the price of all manufactured goods. At the same time, oil is rising much more slowly than copper, timber, rare metals.
Can the price of oil show $100 per barrel in the medium term? Yes it can. But only for one reason – anything is possible in the market. It means that speculators will try to push the price to the sky under a particular futures contract. Who does not believe in it, just recall the events of a year ago when the price of WTI oil reached -37 USD per barrel.
03.30 Australia’s Q1 GDP
08.00 German retail sales for April
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