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Corona virus sinks the stock exchanges

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21.01.2020 – Daily Report. Unexpected neck blow for investors in Asia: fear of a deadly lung epidemic has pulled prices sharply south. Brokers in Germany are also predominantly pushing the sell button.

Frankfurt in reverse gear

Only a few traders had this threat on their radar: the spread of a new type of virus-induced lung disease in China is unsettling investors. The DAX fell by 0.5 percent to 13,487 points in early Tuesday trading. The indicator thus moved further away from its record high of 13,596 points, which it reached about two years ago. The strong ZEW economic data only supported the prices a little.
US futures also fell by 0.4 percent. Government bonds and the Japanese yen were in demand as safe havens. There were no specifications from the USA for the DAX: The American stock exchanges remained closed yesterday because of the holiday “Martin Luther King Day”.

Threatening epidemic in China

In the People’s Republic of China, the CSI-300 dropped by a whopping 1.7 percent to 4,114 points in the morning. Brokers explained the development with the outbreak of the corona virus and four deaths. The disease, which resembles pneumonia, could cause considerable damage to the retail trade and tourism, the floor said. Some stock market experts drew parallels to related epidemics such as SARS and MERS. The situation appears to be more dangerous than previously suspected.
China’s President Xi Jinping said yesterday, according to the state TV station CCTV, that the outbreak must be taken seriously. Also on state television, scientist Zhong Nanshan, head of a commission investigating the disease, confirmed that it is now certain that the epidemic can be transmitted from person to person. Previously, only animals – specifically the fish market in Wuhan – had been considered a source of infection. According to the “Wall Street Journal”, the number of confirmed cases in the Middle Kingdom has now tripled to over 200. And this before the great wave of travel to the Chinese New Year. First cases have also been reported in Thailand, Japan and South Korea. The World Health Organization has now convened its Emergency Committee because of the diseases.
In Hong Kong, the continuing protests also depressed the mood. As a result, the Hang Seng fell particularly sharply by 2.8 percent to 27,985 points.

Japan’s central bank stands still

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 lost 0.9 percent to 23,864 points. As expected, the Japanese central bank did not touch the key interest rate of minus 0.1 percent. The goal remains to push the yield on ten-year government bonds towards zero. At the same time, the central bank raised its economic forecast by 0.2 points to 0.9 percent, justifying the move with the reduced risks in the course of Phase 1 between China and the USA.

Institutions sell oil

Oil prices continued to fall, WTI lost 1.5 percent to USD 57.81, Brent slipped 1.1 percent to USD 64.39. According to an analysis by Reuters, many major speculators have exited their long positions after the situation between Iran and the USA calmed down. By 14 January, fund managers had sold the equivalent of 64 million barrels of WTI futures.

Short process in Impeachment

For brokers, the question could become interesting in the coming days as to whether the majority of Republicans in the Senate will push through a short trial; or whether there are defectors who, just like the Democrats, now want to summon witnesses in impeachment after all. If so, the stock market is likely to interpret this as a signal that there is a crack in the Republican faction. And that US President Donald Trump is in danger – which would be a bearish signal for Wall Street. A quick acquittal, on the other hand, would be a bullish factor for anyone trading CFDs on US indices or online US stocks.

What the day brings

The diary does not show any really big events on Tuesday, you can find the overview as always here: Market Mover
The Bernstein-Bank wishes successful trades!


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Morning Stock News

Will the Bank of Japan and the ECB follow the same path as the Fed?

By | News | No Comments

Gold   1566,09
(+0,34%)

EURUSD   1,1097
( +0%)

DJIA   29195,50
(-0,33%)

OIL.WTI  58,26
(-0,70%)

DAX   13577,75
(+ 0,01%)

Yesterday America celebrated Martin Luther King’s Day, so the US markets were closed. Usually on such days, the market activity on all world markets decreases. During the trading session, the DAX index is slightly increasing, adding 0.17% to the previous closing.


USD/CHF chart of the day

USD-CHF chart of the day
Already on Thursday, the first ECB meeting of this year will be held. Bidders are very cautious, as they are likely to hear some information about the ECB stimulus measures. In general, the easing of tension in the trade wars between the U.S. and China and the likely pause in further Fed interest rate adjustments have left no choice to bidders and force them to buy shares. This week, there will be quite a lot of different fundamental data waiting for us, from which investors will make decisions.

JAPANESE YEN

The Japanese yen has come close to the levels of the downtrend, which has been going on since 2015. Trading above 110 in a weak market, the yen did not provide enough momentum on the first day of the week to go even higher. Investors are just waiting for the Bank of Japan meeting, which will be held today. Now the USD/JPY should confirm the weekly breakthrough above the current levels and fix there. If that doesn’t happen, it is likely to roll back to 109.80. The further movement will depend on the economic data from the USA. If they surprise positively, we might see a new high at 110.70 on the Yen due to the strengthening of the US dollar.

SWISS FRANC

It feels like there’s nothing to stop it. Franc has always been one of the protective currencies and its strengthening gives not very good signals for the European market. Investors do not really believe in the growth of the economy of the European Union and at the moment they just buy back the Swiss franc, keeping their savings in a stable currency. It is very likely that this trend of the Swiss franc will continue. At the moment, the currency pair has worked out its growth to the level of 0.9690, now we can expect a further decline to 0.9660 and possibly 0.9590, where the price is waiting for the first serious support.

What is waiting for us today?

04.00 Bank of Japan press conference and interest rate decision
10.30 ILO unemployment rate in the UK for November
11.00 ZEW Institute business sentiment index


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Trading map dots

Thin air at high altitude

By | News | No Comments

20.01.2020 – Daily Report. We could gradually write this market report with copy and paste: Wall Street is setting new records, the DAX is hesitant. And the MDAX has reached another all-time high. But in the meantime, Wall Street looks increasingly overbought – when will the permanent bull market end? Certainly not today, because the US stock market remains closed.

Threatening double top

On Monday morning, the DAX made no move to follow the USA’s lead: The German leading index lost 0.2 percent to 13,505 points. On Friday, the price indicator had made it to 13,558 points. Thus, the DAX was only 41 points below its record high of 13,597 points at the beginning of 2018. Now the bulls had better get going soon, otherwise a double high is imminent. The chart analysis shows that this is a classic sell signal.

Meanwhile, the MDAX reached a new record high at the start of trading, rising to 28,815. Recently, however, it also crumbled, falling 0.1 percent to 28,738 points.

Asia predominantly solid

Asian stock markets rose on Monday on hopes of a recovery in the global economy. The Chinese CSI-300 climbed 0.8 percent to 4,185 points. And the Nikkei closed 0.2 percent higher at 24,084 points. In contrast, the Hang Seng slipped by 0.9 percent to 28,796 points due to new protests in Hong Kong.

Records, records, records

Wall Street had continued its series production of all-time highs on Friday. Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500 and high-tech indices reached new highs. At the closing bell, the Dow was 0.2 percent firmer at 29,348 digits. In the course of trading, it had pushed the intraday high to 29,374 points. The S&P 500 finally gained 0.4 percent to around 3,330 points. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.5 percent to 9,172 points.

In the USA the air is getting thinner

The major US indices have now moved a long way from normality, measured by moving averages. Take the Dow as an example: the 50-day line runs at 28,240 points, the 200-day line even at 26,909 digits. The last time the leading index touched both lines was in early October. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI 14) reached oversold territory at 72.62 points. By the way, the high-tech indices have been trading in oversold territory on the RSI for several trading days now.

All this means that a reset is overdue. But when? Probably when unexpected events provide the bulls with reasons to make a killing – such as new Chinese trickery in the customs dispute or an imminent betrayal of Republicans in the Senate during the Impeachment. So be sure to keep an eye on the regular market updates.

It is also quite possible that the cracking of the 30,000 mark in the Dow will cause a final buying frenzy before the hangover sets in. Such a big house number always convinces even the last anxious ones, while the professionals discreetly leave the parquet when the amateurs appear. According to the teachings of Behavioral Science, a headline in the “Bild” would be appropriate, for example according to this freely invented pattern: “Dow 30,000 – so you can get rich with US stocks!”

Bank of America warns of the bubble

Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett from Bank of America just spoke with a similar tone. In his weekly “Flow Show” he stated: “Q1’2020 = Q1’2000”. There is euphoria everywhere. The clearest parallel to the time before the bursting of the dotcom bubble was the emergence of the “Trillion Dollar Babies”, i.e. stocks worth over 1 trillion dollars. This is the direct result of “$12 trillion of QE since Lehman”. In addition, there were “$1 trillion in stock buybacks past 5 years by top 20 US companies (amounting to $381,000 per employee”. Now the S&P 500 “just 5% away from becoming largest bull market of all time (3498) even as the Fed is now stuck and can never again allow stocks to drop as US financial assets (i.e., Wall Street) is a record 5.5x size of GDP (Main St). In short, the entire market is now “too big to fail.”

Derivatives-Hausse with Bitcoin

What remains is a look at another rally: On Friday Bitcoin broke through the $9,000 mark for the first time since November, but recently dropped 0.7 per cent to $8,646. ZeroHedge stated that in percentage terms this was the best start to the year ever registered for the most important crypto currency. The blog “CoinTelegraph” stated that derivatives trading is likely to reach new records this month and that the volume of open interest is rising strongly. No wonder, the CME Group – the world’s largest derivatives exchange in Chicago – had recently launched options on BTC, following its competitor FTX. All in all, the market is hoping for continued recognition of the cryptos by institutional investors, and thus for a virtual knighthood in the financial world. Let’s wait and see.

What the day brings

The diary is quite sparse today. You can find the overview here: Market Mover
The Bundesbank’s January monthly report is due at 12.00 noon.

And at 14.00 the International Monetary Fund gives its outlook.

Wall Street remains closed for Martin Luther King Day.

The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades and a good start to the week!


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Morning Stock News

Is the worst for the U.S. economy over yet?

By | News | No Comments

Gold   1561,05
(+0,25%)

EURUSD   1,1101
( +0,12%)

DJIA   29297
(-0,02%)

OIL.WTI  59,23
(+0,94%)

DAX   13526,24
(– 0,09%)

Probably not. The stock markets are hitting another historic high, while the US dollar is strengthening against the Japanese Yen and making an eight-month high. The selling season in the U.S. was in normal rhythm. Despite the slowdown in wage growth, consumer spending increased by 0.3% in December.
Whatever these reports are, you still can’t ignore the problems with sales during the holiday season. Trade wars, tense situation in the Middle East can make 2020 a very difficult year for trade.


Chart of the day USD Index

Chart of the day USD Index
But the US government and the Fed have prepared many more surprises this year. Some are promising tax cuts that will fuel the rally in the market, while others are very optimistic about the prospects for labor and real estate. The first phase of U.S.-China trade relations has already been signed, although it is not enough to ease trade tension. Investors hope that markets will be able to breathe a little calmer in the next few months, while the US and China will be able to negotiate further. One thing to say is that the U.S. government and the Fed are very eager to see a strong economy in their country and are doing their best to make it happen as soon as possible.

EURO

Euro’s not going anywhere in a hurry. Chatter in a narrow range does not give a reason to see any emerging trend. The U.S. dollar ended the week on a positive note and showed good growth, although the fundamental data on the U.S. did not meet the expectations of the market. This week is likely to pass for the Euro in a narrow range between 1.1060 – 1.1200

GOLD

Gold is still an insurance policy for big investors. The increasing politicization of large central banks makes us think about the future of world currencies. It is already clear that the U.S. government will gradually devalue its own currency, and the price of gold is tied to the dollar, which will certainly lead to an increase in the price of the metal.

What’s waiting for us today?

02.30 Decision of the People’s Bank of China on interest rate
05.30 Industrial production in Japan for November since the beginning of the year
08.00 Producer price index in Germany for December


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Stock chart colorful image

Bull market without an end

By | News | No Comments

17.01.2020 – Daily Report. You probably already guessed it: Wall Street has already marked new highs. And now the DAX is also awakening – in Frankfurt the all-time high is finally within reach. Meanwhile, its little brother, the MDAX, is already showing what a storm at the top looks like.

A party for the bulls

Bullish news everywhere: The first part of the trade agreement between China and the USA is in the bag. Yesterday the US Senate also waved through an important free trade agreement. The Chinese economy is growing within the corridor envisaged by the government. The balance sheet figures of American high-tech and financial groups have been strong so far. Global trade is applauding. The odd small drop of bitterness from the American old economy has hardly curbed investors’ appetite for shares.

DAX lurks – MDAX at record high

As a result, the DAX climbed to 13,556 points on Friday afternoon, and was recently up 0.7 percent to 13,524 points. This brings the all-time high of 13,596 points from January 2018 back into view. We are curious to see whether the German stock market will now finally put the stagnation of the past few days behind it. Meanwhile, the MDAX moved to a new all-time high of 28,705 points on Friday morning. Most recently, the index of medium-sized shares remained in the profit zone at 28,682 digits, up 0.4 percent.

Optimism in Asia

Investors in Asia also showed courage: the Nikkei closed with a plus of 0.5 percent at 24,041 points. Here, the weaker yen and hopes of an upturn in global demand led to a 15-month high. In China, the CSI-300 rose by only a moderate 0.1 percent to 4,155. The Chinese economy grew by 6.1 percent in 2019, in line with government and analyst forecasts. However, this was the weakest growth since 1990, with brokers expressing hope that the bottom has now been reached in industrial production and retail trade.

The Trump bull market continues

Right here, right now: If you want to trade CFDs or online shares on the long side, you can’t avoid the US stock exchange at the moment. President Donald Trump scored another success after the China deal: the Senate approved the USMCA trade agreement with Mexico and Canada. As a result, all the major indices reached new highs in the bull market that has been going on for weeks now. The Dow rose by 0.9 percent to 29,298 points, the S&P 500 rose by 0.8 percent to 3,317 points. And the Nasdaq 100 climbed 1 percent to 9,125 points.

Investors also rewarded the company figures, which have so far been predominantly positive. Alphabet achieved a market capitalisation of over USD 1 trillion for the first time. The stock thus caught up with Apple, Microsoft and Amazon. In the banking sector, Morgan Stanley’s figures were convincing, with the share climbing 6.6 percent. In contrast, Alcoa disappointed, the stock slipped by 11.9 percent.

The upside-down world in Turkey

Meanwhile, traders in EURTRY rubbed their eyes in amazement: Yesterday the Turkish central bank lowered the 1-week repo rate from 12 to 11.25 percent. Analysts had expected this step. Thus the real interest rate adjusted around the inflation rate slipped with minus 0,6 per cent into the negative zone. Interestingly enough, the lira nevertheless rose against the euro – from 6.57 to 6.53. Analysts from Rabobank explained this by saying that the central bank had avoided a surprise. Nevertheless, the bank remains bearish, as urgently needed structural reforms are still pending.

What the day brings

Friday again brings some interesting dates – so you should make sure that your direct market access is open. As always, you can find the overview here: Market Mover
For example, at 02:30pm the American building permits for December are announced.
Shortly thereafter, at 03:15pm US industrial production for December is published
At the same time, the capacity utilization in December is reported.
And at 04:00pm the consumer confidence of the University of Michigan in January will follow.
The Bernstein-Bank wishes successful trades!


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Morning Stock News

Donald Trump – a negotiation victim?

By | News | No Comments

Gold   1556,75
(+0,29%)

EURUSD   1,1137
( 0%)

DJIA   29278
(+0,14%)

OIL.WTI  58,51
(-0,12%)

DAX   13465
(+ 0,01%)

The news has come out that the U.S. and China have signed the first phase of the trade agreement. That is, the whole deal is still not in place. So far, we are talking about import conditions and customs duties on goods worth $250 million. Who was involved in signing the contract?


The S&P500 chart of the day

trading-news-sp500
Not the leader of the People’s Republic of China or even the Prime Minister, on the Chinese side, but just the Deputy Prime Minister. Well, he’s no equal to Donald Trump, not only by the standards of diplomacy, but also by simple human logic. The American president’s time is running out. There’s an election coming up and now he’s not like a hunter, he’s like a negotiation victim.

THE S&P 500

The American market does not even try to understand such details (relations between Trump and Chinese leaders). Having received the positive news, it continues to grow, showing the next historical peaks. The situation is repeating from year to year. Everybody is waiting for the crisis, and it keeps not coming. Everybody tries to short stock and then escapes from the shorts.
Against this backdrop, the DAX30 seems to be lagging behind. As we noted in recent reviews, investors are looking more negatively at the prospects of the European market.

Swiss franc

Thursday was another interesting day for the franc. Despite the huge positive sign of the US-China agreement, the pair showed a new low at 0.961. However, at some point the profit taking started. If on Friday the growth trend of the pair continues, we may see the minimum of the 1st quarter.

What is waiting for us today?

03.00 GDP data for the 4th quarter in China.
10.30 UK retail sales level for December
14.30 Started house-building data for December in the United States
16.00 University of Michigan USA Consumer Confidence Index January


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Trade Up

Wall Street records after phase 1

By | News | No Comments

16.01.2020 – Daily Report. The New York Stock Exchange is on a quiet and steady upward trend. While investors in the USA are applauding the customs deal with China, investors in Frankfurt are playing coy. Many Asian stock exchange traders are also analyzing the small print for the first time.

Frankfurt slightly in the red

Shareholders’ capital is increasingly flowing to New York, while Frankfurt is still lagging behind: the DAX was down 0.1 percent at noon on 13,420 points. There is still a bit of air left until the all-time high at 13,596 points. Apparently, many investors who believe in chart analysis expect that the DAX will first have to close the upward gap it tore last week in order to pick up.

Caution in Asiae

Investors in Asia also tended to stay on the sidelines. The Nikkei closed with a minimal plus of 0.1 percent at 23,933 points. The major Chinese stocks in the CSI-300 lost 0.4 percent to 4,149 points.

Promises, Promises

Many brokers welcomed the completion of Phase 1 – delivered as ordered and announced by US President Donald Trump. The stock market loves reliability. In addition, the fact that China intends to buy US goods worth around 200 billion dollars over the next two years exceeded expectations. However, it remains to be seen whether and how Beijing will fill this promise with life. And as described in our Annual Outlook, the really important problems are only in Phase 2 – industrial espionage and favouring domestic companies in China. We are skeptical that Beijing will change its business model. In fact, China has bought itself time now. And Washington is keeping existing punitive tariffs as a disciplining whip. Presumably nothing will happen until the presidential election.

Records on the US stock markets

Gregory Gilligan, Chairman of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, commented on CNBC that there is moderate optimism among companies after the customs deal, despite the continuing uncertainty. The target of 200 billion dollars will be difficult to achieve, but this is better than no way to sell goods at all.
So Wall Street celebrated the deal. The Dow Jones rose 0.3 percent to 29,030 points at the closing bell – a new closing record. In the course of trading, the leading index had marked an all-time high at 29,128 points. The S&P 500 rose by 0.2 percent to 3,289 digits at the end of trading – this was also a new closing high. The Nasdaq Composite had also reached a record high in intraday trading, and the high-tech index closed with a moderate gain of 0.1 percent at 9,259 points.
.

Serenity in New York

What the bulls should keep a close eye on is the fact that there is still no sign of exuberant euphoria on Wall Street. This would be a signal to get out. But instead, the major indices have groped their way forward a bit, only to fall back again before the daily high. Sensible cash management, then. Or is it Sell the News? Let’s wait and see. Another look into the Washington swamp: The articles in the impeachment indictment finally delivered to the Senate by the Democrats in the House of Representatives are currently not an issue for the bulls. Because the Republican defensive front in the Senate is in place.

The Eternal Tsar

Traders in EURRUB and investors who trade online shares on the Russian stock exchange should also keep an eye on the policy. We are not alone in suspecting that the current government reshuffle in Moscow is the harbinger of major events. Most likely, the Russian constitution will soon be amended – to allow the president to remain in power indefinitely and not just two terms in office at a time. Of course, this would be an autocratic move that will secure Vladimir Putin’s place in the Kremlin for the rest of his life. The financial market and the people should welcome the move, as it should ensure stability and prosperity for Russia for a number of years until the succession is settled.

What the day brings

The diary brings some interesting events, you can find the overview as always here: Market Mover
Traders in Euro and European government bonds will be watching the news on the trading platform closely at 1:30pm, as the ECB minutes of the meeting on 12th of December will be running on the tickers.
At 2:30pm it will get interesting for dollar, treasuries and US equities, as US retail sales for December will be reported.
At the same time, the Philly Fed Index will be publishe das well as the weekly American initial claims for unemployment benefits.
Finally at 4:00pm the NAHB-Index for January follows.

The Bernstein-Bank wishes successful trades!


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Morning Stock News

Where’s the Swiss franc going?

By | News | No Comments

Gold   1553,43
(-0,18%)

EURUSD   1,1151
( 0%)

DJIA   29067,50
(+0,15%)

OIL.WTI  58,27
(+0,36%)

DAX   13406,05
(+ 0,01%)

What recently seemed to be a small market error is beginning to look like a frightening trend. The Swiss franc ignores absolutely any positive news in the world economy and keeps growing against all major currencies.
Who feels bad about it? Bad, above all, for the Swiss economy itself. Exports and production are becoming less competitive and tourists do not want to visit the “expensive country”, which is becoming even more expensive. We passed all this 8 years ago, when the Swiss Central Bank first conducted currency interventions and then set the bar at 1.20 per euro/franc.


USD/CHF chart of the day

trading-news-USD-CHF
If stock markets continue to grow, we will not see any currency interventions in the near future. But what happens when the markets start to fall? For example, from May, which is traditionally bad for the stock market? The flow of money, which is sent to the Swiss franc, may reach the size of a huge avalanche. And it will be too late to do anything on the move.
We are sure that not only the Swiss National Bank, but also large hedge funds around the world are thinking about this problem. In any case, traders should understand that when sentiment changes in the stock market, it is the franc that can grow the most.

EURO

After a couple of abrupt moves in early 2020, EUR starts doing what it did for most of the past year. Namely, do nothing at all, but oscillate near the 200-day moving average. So far we do not see the emergence of new trends, which means that speculators working on the strategy of “carry trade” continue to make money without much risk.

Gold

A small consolidation, after a strong drop from the highs of the year, only benefited the yellow metal. Investors saw that there were no more people willing to sell the gold and started buying it again hoping for new growth. Against this background, the yellow metal rose in trading on Wednesday to 1555$ per troy ounce. Analysts continue to insist that the growth at the end of the year will be about 10-20%, so the most interesting things are still ahead.

What is waiting for us today?

08.00 Harmonized consumer price index in Germany for December
13.30 Information on the ECB monetary policy meeting
14.30 US retail sales level for December
19.00 Speech by ECB President Lagarde


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Morning Stock News

Crypto day!

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Gold   1553,18
(+0,45%)

EURUSD   1,1133
(+0,06%)

DJIA   28862,50
(-0,24%)

OIL.WTI  58,15
(+0,05%)

DAX   13454,06
(+ 0,01%)

Is this about Bitcoin? Oddly enough, it’s not even about Bitcoin. Yes, Bitcoin has grown by 8% by the time this review was written. However, which has become very rare for the market, on Tuesday most altcoins have grown much stronger than bitcoin. For example, Ethereum is 15 percent higher, and Bitcoin SV is 95 percent higher.


BTC/USD chart of the day

trading-news-btc
It takes one bitcoin to diversify from currencies and futures. In the crypto market there are those changes, which at the beginning of the year were detailed in one of the reviews. Those who missed it, again we recommend you to find and read the article.
It is very likely that this year Bitcoin will again become an asset that will bring maximum profit to trendy players.

JAPANESE YEN

As part of yesterday’s algorithm, the Japanese yen touched the border and fell below 110 yen for 1 US dollar. As the pair tried, but did not leave below the level on the same day, Wednesday becomes a critical day. If there is a second consecutive closing above 110 yen, we can predict a new range of 110-115.

S&P 500

And the American stock market does not care about any news at all! Traditionally, it drops slightly during the Asian and sometimes European session. Then American investors wake up, look at a more attractive price than last night and rejoice. They drink coffee, buy back cheaper stocks and go to bed. Wake up in the morning and rejoice again.
No matter how much the public hits Donald Trump, he fulfills his election promise that stock markets will grow under him as a businessman.

What awaits us today?

01.30 Speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda
09.40 Speech by a representative of the Bank of England Saunders
10.30 UK consumer price index for December
17.00 Speech by Patrick Harker, member of the US Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Trading Profits

Dax falls sharply at the opening

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14.01.2020 – Daily Report. The start of trading in the Dax today can certainly be described as bumpy. In the first few minutes of trading, the stock market barometer plummeted to just under 13,355 points. However, a recovery movement began from this level, so that the Dax currently stands at 13,457 points, almost unchanged.

The benchmarks from the overseas stock exchanges have been positive through the Bank. Both the broad-based S&P500 and the Nasdaq technology exchange were able to achieve new highs. The Dax is also not far from its all-time high of 13,597 points.

Investors are likely to continue to focus on two events. On the one hand, all eyes are on the partial agreement in the trade dispute between the USA and China. The signing of the so-called Phase 1 deal is likely to be imminent. On the other hand, this evening marks the start of the reporting season in the US, where companies will provide insights into their Q4 business. The quarterly reporting season will be opened by the major banks JP Morgan, Citigroup and Wells Fargo. On average, analysts expect companies to report a decline in profits for the past quarter.

Against the background of the current global easing, the price of gold is easing slightly. Currently, the price of a fine ounce of gold is falling by around 0.3 percent to the current level of USD 1543.55.

Bernstein Bank wishes you succesful trades.


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 78% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.