A new supercycle of commodities

By 07/05/2021News

Gold  1820,865

EURUSD   1,2065

DJIA  34466,50

OIL.WTI  65,155

DAX   15265

We are not claiming that a new commodity supercycle is coming. That’s what analysts who have been impressed by the growth of recent weeks in commodity markets are saying. And it is important for us, as traders, to know how to take advantage of the emerging opportunities in the forex market.



Strong demand from China, increased government spending on economic recovery programmes after the pandemic. And the trend towards “greening” the global economy has lifted prices for many important raw materials.
Iron ore, a key ingredient needed to make steel, palladium, used by carmakers to limit emissions, and timber hit record highs last week. Key agricultural commodities, including grains, oilseeds, sugar and dairy products, also jumped, with corn prices topping $7 a bushel for the first time in eight years.
At the same time, copper, the world’s most important industrial metal, is trading above $10,000 for the first time since 2011 and soybeans have reached an eight-year high. The S&P GSCI spot index, which tracks price movements of 24 commodities, is up 24% this year.
Of course, you could look at commodity CFDs. But forex traders have a good alternative. These are commodity currencies. Traditionally we are talking about the Canadian, Australian and New Zealand dollars.
If we look at the daily charts, we can see that the Canadian and New Zealand dollars have gained enough since the beginning of the year. The Australian dollar, on the other hand, is now trading at the same levels as at the start of the year. Meanwhile, the main export commodity, iron ore, has risen strongly and demand from China continues to increase.
This could lead to a strong uptrend at any time, with an upward move out of the range of recent months. The interesting thing is that it is not only the USD and the EUR which are likely to rise. But also in the crosses against the New Zealand dollar and the Canadian dollar. Especially interesting is the situation in the aud/cad pair. On the daily chart, the 200-day moving average is rising and the price is below it, at the important round level of 0.95.

14.30 US non-farm payrolls for April
14.30 US unemployment rate for April
14.30 Canadian unemployment rate for April
14.30 Canadian Employment Change for April

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