Gold 1753,555
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EURUSD 1,159
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DJIA 34091,50
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OIL.WTI 79,135
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DAX 15155
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The oil market is already up 60% since the beginning of 2021. The overbought nature of this asset is already beyond all bounds and technically there should be a reversal somewhere, but in this situation the trend is likely to continue.
OIL.WTI
The energy crisis is escalating. Gas has become so expensive that it will soon become cheaper to heat with oil-based products. The increase in production, together with the start of the heating season, has additionally made adjustments to the oil price.
All would still be well, but on Monday after the OPEC+ meeting it became clear that no build-up beyond current levels would take place any time soon. Moreover, there was not even an official statement on the current situation after the meeting. Everything remains at current levels and OPEC+ is happy with this situation. At least there were thoughts that OPEC+ would not allow oil to rise too much, so as not to taunt competing shale oil companies in the US.
The picture ahead is not yet very clear as to what levels oil could rise to. In the short term, fuelled from all sides, prices could fly quite high. As high as $90-100/bbl. Such high prices would in any case put pressure on the economy. Because of this pressure, demand for oil is likely to fall, and the price of black gold will fall as a result. For commodity markets, and oil in particular, there is a very good saying said by a fairly respected analyst – “High prices are the best cure for high prices”. And it almost always works.
It is also worth remembering that high oil prices have a direct impact on pricing. So high prices are accelerated inflation. Inflation in developed countries is now quite high and no one wants to see it go any higher.
11.00 EU retail sales YTD
14.15 ADP US private sector employment report for September
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