Bearishe Fed Minutes

By 07/04/2022News

07.04.2022 – Incredible but true: The Federal Reserve is serious. It actually wants to suck a lot of money out of the market. Those who still didn’t get it after Fed Vice Chairman Lael Brainard’s previous statements now learned it from the minutes of the March meeting. The market is waking up to reality: the financial market needs to be shrunk to fight inflation.

Some traders just aren’t hearing the signals. Yet the Federal Reserve has been unusually clear in communicating what it discusses behind closed doors. The Fed Minutes now confirmed the shrinkage: there can be no doubt that the central bank will suck a lot of money out of the market. Stocks, bonds and cryptos went down for the time being after the publication. Nevertheless, the market is still undecided about how to proceed in the medium term. But a decision in one direction or the other is on the horizon, as shown once again by looking at the Nasdaq 100 – high-tech stocks are nervously holding between the 200- and 50-day lines (below). We suspect that they will be the first to show the way ahead.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

Das Finanzblog „ZeroHedge“ kommentierte, wir hätten es mit einem „reverse wealth effect“ zu tun – also mit einer Umkehrung des Wohlstandes. Vulgo: Weniger Geld für Investoren. Alles in allem seien die Fed Minutes „more hawkish than expected on rate-hikes and QT“ ausgefallen, also in Bezug auf höhere Zinsen und das Quantitative Tightening. So dürfte es ein Abschmelzen der Fed-Bilanz von rund 95 Milliarden Dollar pro Monat geben – die meisten Analysten hatten 60 bis 90 Milliarden erwartet. Gleich mehrere Mitglieder der Fed sprachen sich zudem für ungewöhnlich kräftige Zinsschritte von 50 Basispunkten aus. Ferner befürchte die Notenbank einen Vertrauensverlust in der Öffentlichkeit bezüglich der Entschlossenheit bei der Inflationsbekämpfung.

Mehrere Falken in der Fed

JPMorgan hatte vor der gestrigen Veröffentlichung der Fed Minutes noch geschrieben, die vorherige Marktreaktion auf die hawkishen Aussagen von Lael Brainard seien überzogen. Doch warum tauchten die Kurse dann noch weiter ab? Wir meinen: Weil die Hoffnung bestand, dass die Fed aus Angst vor einer Rezession doch nicht so entschlossen auftritt. Diese Illusion ist jetzt zerplatzt. Brainard äußerte zudem keine Einzelmeinung – mehrere Direktoren wollen entschieden vorgehen, um die höchste Teuerungsrate seit vier Jahrzehnten zu drücken.
Der frühere Chef der Federal Reserve of New York, Bill Dudley, jedenfalls kommentierte in einem Video-Blog die Vermutung, dass die Fed unbedingt den Finanzmarkt drücken müssen, um die Inflation zu bekämpfen. Das Tightening werde so lange laufen, wie die Kurse oben seien, urteilte der jetzige Volkswirt von Goldman Sachs. Unser Fazit aus alledem: Die generelle Tendenz an der Börse ist bearish. Was nicht heißt, dass es mitunter Erholungsrallys gibt. Die Bernstein Bank behält die Lage für Sie im Blick!

 

 

 


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