15.11.2019 – Special Report. The theatre of public hearings in Washington has begun. No one is yet assuming that President Donald Trump will be deposed – the latest all-time highs speak for this. No wonder, the US brokers know facts that are usually swept under the carpet by the German media as unfounded conspiracy theories. And which we hereby provide to you. Despite everything, the bulls are in danger.
Public opinion as a means of exerting pressure
The Democrats will let trump-hating witnesses from the establishment parade against the president in front of the cameras. With the constant repetition of the litany, public opinion is to be pushed unassailably in the direction of impeachment. This could succeed and break up the Republican defensive bloc in the House of Representatives and the Senate.
Trump goes, the crash comes
If the Democrats remove Trump, Wall Street is likely to collapse by 25 to 30 percent from the recent highs. The stock market doesn’t like surprises and certainly doesn’t like the departure of a business-friendly president. A sellout is likely to occur especially if the radical left-wing Elizabeth Warren or Bernie Sanders prevail in new elections.
In early November, the New York Times reported rising nervousness on Wall Street over Warren. And Goldman Sachs calculated that corporate profits could fall by 11 percent if she could implement her plans in the White House. Hedge fund manager Paul Tudor Jones said at the Robin Hood Investors Conference in New York at the end of October that the S&P 500 would crash by 25 percent if Warren was elected in early 2020, according to Bloomberg. We think In addition to shorts on US indices, long trades on gold or silver could also be worth a look in this scenario.
Mega bear market in a revolution
A dismissal of Trump would also be a signal that the people can vote for whom they want. Because the establishment of democrats, corporate media and bureaucracy will in any case remove any president they don’t like. De facto this would be a coup d’état that transforms the US presidential democracy into a parliamentary democracy. Some US commentators believe that a revolution will break out if Trump is overthrown. Which Dow, S&P 500 is likely to cause far more than 25 percent to fall.
Trump bull market at the end of the smear theatre
Should the show end, however, as expected by most brokers so far, then the stock market should go up. For example, if the matter fails in the Senate. There would be a nice spike if the House of Representatives were to drop everything. If Trump is re-elected, the above-mentioned hedge fund manager Tudor predicted a possible rise in the S&P 500 to 3,600 points. Long positions on the Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500, but also on the DAX, would then be the obvious choice.
Show trial in Washington
This brings us to the currently known facts. The impeachment is anything but fair. Since it was initiated under the leadership of the House Intelligence Committee, secret hearings could be held. Unlike Bill Clinton or Richard Nixon, Trump was also denied access or legal representation by the head of the committee, Adam Schiff (D-CA). The secrecy made the Democrats look bad, so they switched to a public hearing. But Schiff can veto witnesses summoned by the Republicans – which the Republicans can’t do.
Quid pro Quo?
At the heart of the investigation is Trump’s telephone conversation with Ukrainian President Volodimir Selensky on 25 July. Trump is said to have exerted pressure here to take a closer look at the Biden family – allegedly abusing his power to harm a political competitor. At the same time, the Ukrainian did not even know that military aid amounting to around 390 million dollars had been stopped. Ultimately, the money flowed. So where was the leverage? The Ukrainian also confirmed to journalists in the UN on 25 September that there had been no pressure.
Fight against corruption
It is also the President’s job to ensure that American taxpayers’ money does not seep away. There is no protection for political competitors. According to Breitbart News, Catherine Croft of the State Department recently confirmed that Trump had withheld military aid to Ukraine by the end of 2017. He was concerned about the rampant corruption under Petro Poroshenko’s government and frustrated that the US would have to pay for the defense. Trump was also worried about Russia’s reaction to the delivery of heavy weapons. And even if Trump has built up pressure: that is day-to-day business in politics. Nobody knows this better than the Democrats.
Pressure from Biden on Ukraine
Because in his time as vice-president Joe Biden enforced that Ukraine closed its Attorney General Viktor Shokin. He once investigated corruption at a Ukrainian gas company called Burisma Holdings – and his son Hunter Biden, who in turn had been employed since 2014, paid a hefty 50,000 dollars a month. The task: unclear. In fact, before the Council on Foreign Relations, Biden boasted that he was forcing Ukraine into a corner with the threat of either dismissing the prosecutor or waiving $1 billion in loans. You can watch the video here.
According to Biden, President Barack Obama knew about the blackmail that had driven Ukraine into national bankruptcy. Shokin signed an affidavit that he was fired for targeting Burisma. It remains to be noted that Hunter Biden flew more often in Air Force 2. And that he had some shady deals on funds in China.
Furthermore, the Democrats, who like to look the other way in these matters, did exactly what they now accuse Trump of doing. In May 2018 the three democratic senators Robert Menendez (D-NJ), Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Patrick Leahy (D-VT) politely but unequivocally urged the Ukrainian Attorney General Yuri Lutsenko to support investigations against his own president. At that time it was about the claim, refuted by the Mueller Report, that Russia had helped Trump in the 2016 election campaign. By the way, Lutsenko followed Shokin. You can see the letter here.
Coup of the Deep State
Trump’s assertion remains that there’s a Deep State coup against him. In fact, Trump’s opponents had already considered an impeachment before he had even won the Republican nomination – this was reported by “Politico” in April 2016. Even the left-wing “New York Times” admitted that the Deep State existed. Michelle Cottle, member of the editor-in-chief, wrote on 20 October: “President Trump is right: The deep state is alive and well. But it is not the sinister, antidemocratic cabal of his fever dreams. It is, rather, a collection of patriotic public servants – career diplomats, scientists, intelligence officers and others – who, from within the bowels of this corrupt and corrupting administration, have somehow remembered that their duty is to protect the interests, not of a particular leader, but of the American people.” Well-meaning officials who know everything better and act only for the good of the people. But unfortunately they were not elected by the people.
Whistleblower or agent?
The fact that the lawyer of the whistleblower, Mark Zaid, already tweeted on 30 January 2017 that Trump had to be got rid of fits into the picture. So one week after the impeachment. Specifically: “#coup has started. First of many steps. #rebellion. #impeachment will follow ultimately.” Strangely enough, the Democrats refuse to summon the whistleblower before the impeachment jury. His name has become an open secret in Washington. The vita of the tipster points to an extremely biased agenda. According to “Red State,” he is a Democratic member, working for Joe Biden and former National Security Advisor Susan Rice, who served under Obama.
The fact that the tipster was able to deliver his now impeachment-inflated statement at all is because the Intelligence Community Inspector General (ICIG) cleared the way for it. Sometime in the past months this allowed a statement according to “Epoch Times” and other media from hearsay. Previously, only first-hand knowledge was allowed.
Clinton and CrowdStrike
Perhaps the impeachment is a first strike against Trump, which perhaps came too close to another matter: a possible intervention of the Democrats in the 2016 election campaign against Trump with the help of Ukraine. And that brings us to Hillary Clinton. Trump mentioned the company CrowdStrike in the phone call with Selensky – it investigated cyber attacks on the Democrats and blamed the Russian secret service. An investigation by the Department of Justice is currently underway on this subject: Inspector General Michael Horowitz is now illuminating the FBI investigations against the Trump election campaign in the course of the Mueller Report.
Only volatility is guaranteed
Conclusion: According to all that is known so far, Trump has not committed an impeachment-worthy crime – the US constitution provides for “Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors”. Ultimately, he did nothing but the Democrats. But they don’t care. Perhaps because they have themselves been targeted. So let’s wait and see what new facts come onto the table. And how the Republicans fight for public opinion in the battle.
What is certain is that the stock market doesn’t like uncertainty – if there is an impeachment vote, we should see increased volatility. Which would make the VIX a long trade. So keep an eye on it and keep your trading platform open.
Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!
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