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It’s time for another round of pressure from China on Bitcoin. Last week China imposed additional restrictions. The list is quite large, and this time it will not only apply to legal entities but also to individuals.
BTCUSD
This news immediately knocked bitcoin down almost 10%, but are these bans really scary? Chinese cryptocurrency exchanges are already starting to shut down user accounts. It will likely be more difficult for Chinese residents to transact in cryptocurrencies now, but they will be anyway. Already we can see that such bans are benefiting so-called decentralised exchanges, such as Uniswap. This is essentially just a specific protocol that allows exchanges to take place between two users. It is not geographically located in any way, nor is it subject to any jurisdiction. Users will go there and continue to use cryptocurrencies. Therefore, these bans should not affect the bitcoin price very much.
It has long been clear that China does not have the power to completely ban cryptocurrencies, and most crypto investors have been watching the China-Bitcoin standoff for a long time. If such bans were implemented in the US, this market could be killed off very quickly, but for some reason the US does not do that. On the contrary, bitcoin futures are trading very well on the CME. There are rumors that the American top brass has created this product for implementing their future goals for the digital dollar.
Another thing is that bitcoin may be heavily influenced by the winding down of the QE programme in the USA. Which may start very soon.
The first hints of a rollback are already appearing in the bond market. The yields of the two-year Treasuries have reached a new high since the start of the coronavirus pandemic. In the medium term, if the sell-off in the bond market continues and yields rise, we could well see a revaluation of risky assets and hence a possible sell-off. In such a situation, bitcoin will have a hard time holding current levels.
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