Gold 1811,165
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EURUSD 1,1876
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DJIA 35482,50
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OIL.WTI 69,795
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DAX 15814
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Here we are waiting for the end of the week and with it the long-awaited US jobs report. After Powell’s speech US employment comes out on top. We should not expect strong swings in the markets before this report comes out as not only investors are waiting for it but also the Fed to plan stimulus policy actions.
EUR/USD
Given the latest unemployment and private sector employment data, it is safe to say that this report will not be strong enough to reverse the current trend in the stock market. And that is a good thing. The smoother we approach the start of the tapering of quantitative easing, the better for all.
The biggest impact of the released labour market data has been on the US dollar, which has been weakening since mid-August. Investors realise that a weak jobs report will delay further decisions to reduce support and hence more currency will further affect the exchange rate. There is also still time for speculating with risky assets that might still yield profits.
The technical picture of the EUR/USD pair looks quite readable. By Friday’s reports the pair is approaching an important resistance at 1.19. It is safe to say that on Friday the volatility will increase and there will be an attempt to test this level.
If the pair manages to close at least above 1.1890, it will mean a possible continuation of the bullish movement in the near future.
However, there will be questions about the Euro’s medium-term upside to 1.21. The European Central Bank does not plan any unwinding of economic support at all before spring and will continue to print the Euro at the same pace. It is a negative factor for the strength of the Euro and the central bank does not need a stronger Euro. Almost all sectors of the economy will suffer. Therefore it is very likely that EUR/USD will remain in the 1.17-1.20 range by the end of the year.
11.00 EU retail sales for July
14.30 USA new jobs created outside of agriculture in August
16.00 US ISM Services Business Activity Index for August
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