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26.07.2019 – Daily report. The day after, the bulls treated her wounds. ECB boss Mario Draghi had not delivered as hoped. After the crash, the DAX tries to stabilize. But the interest rate fantasy is out of the market for now.

The DAX must fight

The stock market wanted more cheap money very quickly. But Europe’s currency guardians refused. They announced that interest rates would probably remain at their current level or “below” for at least the first half of 2020. At yesterday’s meeting, the ECB left the key interest rate at zero for the time being, and the deposit rate for banks also remained unchanged at minus 0.4 percent. It soon dawned on investors that they would have to wait at least until the next interest rate meeting in six weeks’ time for the big money flood. As a result, the DAX submerged.
Since investors in New York also fled into the sidelines, there were only a few buying arguments left. Most recently, Germany’s leading index oscillated with a plus of 0.2 percent, just under 12,400 points. In view of the tripping steps, the recommendation remains once again to trade CFDs with Germany’s best CFD brokers – the leverage also brings profits in the sideways market. However, those who are involved in online stock trading are likely to tick off this Friday in view of the lack of big dates. Which is not bad given the persistent heat.

Skepticism in Asia

Asia was also indecisive in the morning. Especially as concerns circulated on the US floor that the Federal Reserve might fall short of expectations at its meeting next week. This Friday was accompanied by reports of an impending intensification of the Japanese-South Korean trade conflict. The dispute over compensation for Korean forced laborers during Japan’s colonial rule between 1910 and 1945 continues to smoulder. In view of this conflict, the Nikkei in Tokyo dropped by 0.5 percent to 21,658 points. The Chinese CSI 300 saved a plus of 0.2 percent to 3,858 points.

New York hesitates

On Wall Street, investors had been hiding on Thursday. Most brokers expect the Fed to cut key rates by at least a quarter of a percentage point in the coming week. But what if not, as in Europe? The disappointment would be pre-programmed as in Frankfurt. The Dow Jones index closed the day at minus 0.5 percent at 27,140 points. The S&P 500 also fell by 0.5 percent to 3,003 points. And the Nasdaq Composite slipped 1 percent to 8,238 points.

Interest rate cut in Turkey

There remains a short look to Ankara. Yesterday the Turkish central bank lowered its key interest rate for the first time in four years. With the strong move from 24 to 19.75 percent, politicians intervened massively in the currency market. At the beginning of July, Recep Tayyip Erdogan had pushed the central bank governor out of office and replaced him with his deputy. He now delivered as requested. Interestingly, the lira has recently shown itself to be relatively stable – low interest rates normally put pressure on a currency. Does the market now see the lower interest rate as a self-confident sign that the economy is about to recover? Or is someone buying Turkish lira in the background? In any case, the lira collapsed immediately after yesterday’s announcement, only to subito miraculously recover afterwards. Perhaps the central bank had just destroyed a few shorts with support purchases. We are keeping an eye on developments.

This is what the day brings

Even vigilant investors are unlikely to find much of an incentive for new investments this Friday.
On important dates, only the publication of the American gross domestic product for the second quarter is scheduled. The figures are expected to be available on the tickers at 2.30 pm.
The Bernstein-Bank wishes successful trades – and a happy sunny days!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

25.07.2019 – Daily report. Interest gladness or interest frustration? The stock market expects the European Central Bank to lower interest rates. And a significant one at that. And soon, if not immediately. The new records of S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 are also initially giving a boost. But the Ifo index is dampening the anticipation.

Frankfurt relies on the ECB

The theme of the day on the Frankfurt floor will be the European Central Bank. The DAX initially pulled away to 12,600 points, but then fell again and finally moved sideways again.
Investors hope that the currency guardians will flood the market with cheap money. Not all analysts assume that the deposit rate will be lowered today. A negative interest rate would be a penalty fee for money that commercial banks park at the ECB. But many brokers now estimate the probability that the ECB will lower the deposit rate at more than 50 percent. The scope for disappointment is therefore great.
At any rate, the Ifo Business Climate Index did not provide a clear indication of the ECB’s share price. The sentiment indicator fell slightly in July from 101.8 points to 101.7 points. However, the decline was not as severe as many experts had feared. All economic data can be found here: Market Mover
The Ifo index is therefore worse, but perhaps not bad enough for the ECB. So let’s wait and see how and whether the central bankers will set the euro, bonds and equities in motion. From 1.45 p.m. we know more.

Asia ignores politics

Meanwhile, Asian stock exchange traders looked to Wall Street, where S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 had closed at an all-time high. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 bid farewell 0.2 percent firmer at 21,757 positions. The CSI, which includes 300 blue chips from mainland China, rose 0.8 percent to 3,851 points. Even politics did not stop the buyers: North Korea tested two short-range missiles. In addition, a spokeswoman for the Chinese Ministry of Defence indicated that Beijing could send the People’s Liberation Army to Hong Kong to get the riots under control. In addition, the USA sent a warship to Taiwan.

3000 and 8000 – record hunt in New York

Wall Street had been firmly in the hands of the cops on Wednesday. The White House had confirmed media reports that Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer will meet with their Chinese counterparts next week. So here’s to a new one in the customs dispute with China.
Both S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 set new records. And magic brands overcame each other: 3,000 on the one hand and 8,000 on the other. The market-wide S&P 500 gained 0.5 percent to 3,020 points. The Nasdaq 100 passed the 8,000 point mark for the first time – it closed with a plus of 0.7 percent at 8,011 points. The Dow Jones lagged due to weak figures and the resulting price losses of Boeing and Caterpillar. At the closing bell, the Dow fell by 0.3 percent to 27,270 points.

He is serious

The pound sterling is likely to remain exciting until 31 October. The new Prime Minister, Boris Johnson, is apparently tackling the Brexit issue resolutely. At least he will take action in the new cabinet: He has mainly filled his new government team with supporters of Brexit. British media described the castling as a “bloodbath”. For example, his rival Jeremy Hunt, the Tory party leader, also fell victim to the new occupation.

This is what the day brings

In addition to the press conference of the European Central Bank at 2.30 p.m., two US data in particular should dominate the day.
At 2.30 p.m. German time, for example, orders for durable goods will be received in June.
At the same time, the first weekly applications for unemployment benefits will be reported.
The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

24.07.2019 – Daily report. The DAX is taking a break for the time being. After the strong plus on Tuesday, investors wait, cool down and sound out the situation. There are enough interesting topics in the near future: the ECB interest rate decision, Brexit, the China-USA customs dispute and the reporting season can have a strong impact on prices.

Stock market pause for breath

Everything so quiet on the trading platform, hardly a sign of life in the real-time prices to match the heat. But investors were granted a break; the day before, the DAX had had the best trading day in about four weeks from the bulls’ point of view. On Wednesday noon, however, the leading index was undecidedly floating with a meagre plus of 0.1 percent. After all, the indicator thus moved within reach of the 12,500 mark. You can only enjoy a lethargy like this if you trade daily updated CFDs. Then you can take even the smallest movements with you thanks to the lever. An engagement in online stock trading, on the other hand, requires patience. Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank once again caused a sensation with a larger than expected minus. Daimler also reported weak figures. In the foreign exchange market, investors kept an eye on the pound following the appointment of Boris Johnson as the new British Prime Minister.

Waiting for the ECB

It is hard to believe that the situation on the Frankfurt floor will change significantly before the European Central Bank makes its interest rate decision tomorrow. Investors are waiting for a clear statement from ECB boss Mario Draghi as to whether he is already announcing a resumption of bond purchases or at least has the prospect of doing so. If not, this should drive some optimists out of the market.

They want to negotiate again

Hopes of a timely resolution to the US-China customs dispute had boosted prices in Asia this morning. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.4 percent higher at 21,710 points. In China, the CSI-300 bid farewell with a plus of 0.8 percent at 3,820 points. An American trade delegation wants to travel to China sometime in the period between Friday – then the six-week summer break of Congress begins in the tropically heated Washington – and August 1. CNBC reported this with reference to insiders. The state of affairs: The USA had offered to loosen the sanctions against Huawei if China increasingly buys agricultural products in America.

New York misses the record

Good quarterly figures – for example from Coca Cola and United Technologies – as well as the budding hope in the US trade dispute with China had pushed Wall Street on the previous evening. In addition, the stock exchange members applauded the averted shutdown after the US government and Congress representatives had agreed on a new budget package. The Dow Jones Industrial advanced by 0.7 percent to 27,349 positions at the closing bell. It thus made contact again with the all-time high of the previous week – at its peak of 27,398 points, only around 30 points were missing from the new record. The other indices did not reach a new high either: the S&P 500 gained 0.7 percent at 3,005 points. The technology-oriented Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.6 percent to 7,955 points.

Surprise on the oil market

The evening before, the American Petroleum Institute (API) had caused a sensation. API reported a drop in US crude oil stocks last week of almost eleven million barrels. This minus is unusually strong despite vacation season and travel time. We are curious to see how the weekly oil report will turn out today at 4.30 pm.

That brings the day

In addition, the diary is rather thinly filled. The American purchasing managers’ index at 15:45 becomes interesting.
Also the US home sales in June at 16.00 hrs.
In terms of quarterly figures, Wall Street will be pre-market mainly Boeing, Caterpillar and UPS.
Post-IPO figures include Facebook and Ford.
The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

23.07.2019 – Daily report. Germany’s leading index got off to a successful start today and is currently trading at 12,394 points, an impressive 0.9 percent higher. This is likely to be triggered by the ECB’s continuing prospect of a rate cut.

ECB in focus

Although the European Central Bank meeting will not take place until Thursday of this week, investors are already giving advance credit to this important event. According to analysts, the probability of an interest rate cut by the current ECB boss Mario Draghi to 50 percent is estimated. As at every meeting of the ECB Council, every word should be scrutinized this time, especially with regard to possible bond purchases by the ECB.
The ECB’s decision may also affect the American central bankers, who will announce their decision on the US interest rate next week.

Wait and see on Wall Street

The American stock exchanges ended yesterday’s trading almost unchanged. The Dow Jones Index closed the day with a slight gain of 0.3% at 27,252 points. The broader S&P500 also gained 0.3 percent to a level of 2,993.50 points. Currently, the talks in the trade conflict with China continue to dominate events on the US stock exchanges.

Show Down in London

At noon all eyes should be on the capital of the United Kingdom. At this time it should be clear whether the Brexit hardliner Boris Johnson will become the new Prime Minister and expel Theresa May from her office in Downing Street No. 10. Johnson is the media’s favourite over his opponent Jeremy Hunt.

Euro continues to fall

The exchange rate of the European single currency continues to lose ground and for the first time since June has dropped below the psychologically important 1.12 US dollar mark again. This is probably due to the current stability of the US dollar, which is strongly reflected against the backdrop of a budget package adopted in the USA.

This is what the day brings

In addition to the above-mentioned event in the London Parliament, investors are likely to look at economic data from the U.S. this afternoon. At 4:00 p.m., the latest figures (June) for existing home sales will be released. Analysts’ expectations are currently at 5.35 million units.
Around 22:30, the API report on US Crude Oil Stocks will follow.
Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades.

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

22.07.2019 – Daily report. Prior to the ECB’s interest rate decision, investors in the German stock market are keeping a low profile. This hesitation is also due to the reporting season. In addition, the conflict in the Persian Gulf continues to smoulder – the UK is considering countermeasures following the fixing of a tanker by Iran.

Frankfurt is waiting

The DAX did not make good progress on Monday morning. Germany’s leading index recently held its ground at 0.2 percent, just under 12,300 points. While the small tripping steps certainly open up opportunities in CFD trading, online stock trading is rather frustrating. Brokers said it was unclear whether central bank chairman Mario Draghi would lower interest rates on Thursday and give the go-ahead for further bond purchases. Ergo nobody wants to position himself on the wrong side yet.

Tension over Tehran

CFD traders also observed developments in Iran on the stock market and in the oil market. London is currently considering countermeasures against Tehran, Downing Street 10, over the fixing of a British tanker according to the Ministry of Defence. Foreign Minister Jeremy Hunt wants to inform Parliament this afternoon about the current situation. According to British media reports, the Iranian state’s assets will initially be frozen. Military actions had previously been ruled out by London. Meanwhile Iran continues to detain the oil tanker “Stena Impero” flying the British flag. The Revolutionary Guards had stopped the ship on Friday in the Strait of Hormus in the waters of Oman.
Meanwhile, Israel has sent a warning signal to Tehran with a drone attack. According to the Debka Files website, a Harop drone bombed the pro-Iranian Hash Dhaabi militia in Iraq on Friday. According to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, there were no victims in the attack northeast of Baghdad. According to local reports, however, Iranian and Hezbollah officers were killed. The lesson: Iran is also within reach of the Israelis. There is also a question: Will the USA, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates stand idly by when Iran spreads through Shiite militias in Iraq? Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq – Tehran is continuously expanding its bases.

A new stock market star in China

Meanwhile, investors in China celebrated the launch of a new stock market segment for technology companies. The “Star Market” mainly lists high-tech companies. The 25 companies included in the list more than doubled their average share prices at the start on Monday. On the other hand, the CSI-300 apparently lost capital. The index with the 300 largest companies on the Chinese mainland closed 0.7 percent lower at 3,782 points. Increasing scepticism was also caused by the unrest in Hong Kong.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 closed 0.2 percent lower at 21,417 points. Over the weekend, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s party had clearly won the upper house election. However, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and its smaller coalition partner Komeito failed to achieve the two-thirds majority required for a constitutional amendment.

New York increasingly sceptical

In New York, however, disappointment could soon hit the stock market. It is considered certain that the Federal Reserve will lower the key interest rate at the end of the month. However, it is unclear how strong. The Dow Jones Industrial closed 0.3 percent lower at 27,154 points, while the Dow lost 0.7 percent last week. The S&P 500 slipped by 0.6 percent to 2,977 points on Friday. The technology-driven Nasdaq 100 lost 0.9 percent to 7835 positions.

This is what the day brings

On Monday there are only a few really stock market relevant dates.
At best, the CFNA index for June – the Chicago Fed’s National Activity Index – could cause a stir at 2:30 pm.
The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

19.07.2019 – Daily report. There you go. The head of the New York Fed spoke plainly about low interest rates. And global trade is applauding. The DAX also wants to go up. Even if only moderately.

New Yorker Fed delights Frankfurt

Who would have thought: a Federal Reserve central banker doesn’t mince his words. And the stock market is delighted. The head of the New York Fed, John Williams, said yesterday, among other things: “First, take swift action when faced with adverse economic conditions. Second, keep interest rates lower for longer.” So: act quickly if a crisis is looming. Then lower interest rates for a longer period. Fuel for the stock market. Applause, applause. The DAX rose to 12,340 points on Friday morning before crumbling again. Most recently, it held up 0.3 percent. A brief note on the subject of chart analysis: The German benchmark index closed yesterday at exactly the 50-day line and has now rebounded upwards again.

Asia is pleased about cheap money

Williams’ words echoed in Asia, too. Even though a Fed spokesman tried to relativize them as academic and theoretical. In addition, inflation data from Japan in the morning helped investors to regain momentum. The small price increase in the core rate could lead the Bank of Japan to further easing. Even more cheap money everywhere. And the Nikkei gained 2 percent to 21,467 points. The CSI-300 climbed 1.1 percent to 3,808 points.

Bad awakening for Beijing

Meanwhile, one news item made the round, which should force Beijing to provide additional economic support and cause bad stomach pains in German editorial offices: Donald Trump is apparently on the winning track in the trade dispute with China. According to “Nikkei”, more than 50 international companies are currently withdrawing their production from China to Southeast Asia. These include Apple, Nintendo, Dell and HP. Even the Chinese electronics group TCL is considering going to Vietnam. And the Chinese tire manufacturer Sailun Tire will soon be producing in Thailand. Ergo: CFD traders should perhaps take a closer look at the stock exchanges in India, Vietnam and Thailand.

Is that all?

Oh yes, Trump. Currently, there is no reason for CFD traders on Wall Street to price in a crash of the stock exchange in the course of the sex affair around Jeffrey Epstein because of an impeachment. Now NBC has taken a snippet from 1992 from the archives. And here Trump actually speaks at a party with pedophile pimp Jeffrey Epstein. Apparently Trump says “She is hot” about a cheerleader. We say: Shocking! As a reminder: The investigation against Epstein began in 2005. This raises the question whether the Democrats don’t have sharper arrows in their quiver.

Although according to the “Washington Examiner” Maurene Comey is one of the investigators in the New York public prosecutor’s office against Epstein. And that’s not just anyone. But the daughter of James Comey, who was appointed head of the FBI by Barack Obama in September 2013. As such, Comey investigated the email affair of Hillary Clinton, but wrote to Hillary’s discharge before the investigation into the sloppy use of state secrets was completed. Trump fired Comey in May 2017, the US media suspected a connection with the investigation into alleged support in the election campaign from Russia. By the way: Trump was in turn exonerated by special investigator Robert Mueller in March 2019. But Comey still has a score to settle with Trump. Will his daughter help him with the settlement?

A slight plus New York

Whatever. Wall Street ignored this filth yesterday and focused on the New York Fed. The Dow Jones Industrial closed Thursday with a minimal gain of 0.01 percent at 27,223 points. The broad S&P 500 gained 0.4 percent to 2,995 points. And the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.19 percent to 7904.13 points. And the US Navy’s shooting down of an alleged Iranian drone in the Persian Gulf also left the brokers cold.

Iran gives in

Otherwise, Iran seems to be giving in substantially to the nuclear dispute, which sent oil prices south. According to the Guardian, Secretary of State Mohammad Javad Zarif has offered permanent inspections of the nuclear programme if the US lifts its sanctions. The question is whether Zarif is not being pushed aside by the hardliners in Tehran because he is bowing to pressure from Washington. Let us wait and see.

That is what the day brings

At the end of the week you should screen your trading platform and the incoming news mainly at 4:00pm. The University of Michigan reports consumer confidence in July.
From 5:00pm James Bullard will be at the speaker’s desk. He is head of the St. Louis Fed.
At 10:30pm German time he is succeeded by Eric S. Rosengren, President of the Boston Fed. Both are entitled to vote in the FOMC, both speak at the annual meeting of the Central Bank Research Association in New York.

The Bernstein-Bank wishes successful trades and a relaxing weekend in the sun!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

18.07.2019 – Daily report. Small depression on the Frankfurt stock market: The DAX goes into reverse on Thursday at noon. Some quarterly figures do not appeal to the stock market. There were disappointments both in the USA and in Germany.

Bad mood in Frankfurt

What waves, might fall: According to this quote freely attributed to Friedrich Nietzsche, brokers on the Frankfurt floor will behave on Thursday. The leading German index has slipped because of several bad news items. Most recently, the DAX fell by 0.8 percent to 12,242 points. The mood was initially depressed by the post-trading minus of the IBM share and the collapse of the Netfllix stocks. The streaming service reported the first decline in US customer numbers in almost a decade.
Heidelberger Druck was responsible for sales pressure. The Kurpfalz-based group is experiencing an increasing reluctance to invest and a headwind for sales. SAP was able to speak from its neighborhood with a few meagre figures. Severance payments and takeover costs reduced the software group’s profits in the second quarter. Accordingly, SAP took its place at the end of the DAX. Meanwhile, new car registrations across Europe fell by 7.8 percent year-on-year in June.

Losses in Asia

In Asia, the seventh consecutive minus in Japanese exports caused headaches. The Nikkei lost 2 percent to 21,046 jobs. Needless to say, the radio silence in the trade dispute between China and the USA caused nervousness. The CSI-300 dropped about one percent to 3,768 points.

Skepticism in New York

The New York Stock Exchange had been firmly in the hands of the bears the night before. The Dow Jones lost 0.4 percent to 27,220 points. The S&P 500 fell by 0.7 percent to 2,984 positions. And the Nasdaq 100 fell 0.5 percent to 7,889 points. Economic data caused scepticism: the US housing market had developed worse than expected in June. However, the Fed explained in its Beige Book that the business outlook remained “generally positive”. So there is no reason for a rate cut? Let’s wait and see.

Boris weighs on the Pound

There remains a glimpse of the British pound. The currency has weakened recently because the presumed new prime minister, Boris Johnsonn, wants to push through Brexit with or without a deal with the European Union. In a television debate he ruled out the so-called backstop, which was originally agreed between the EU and London to prevent a new border between Northern Ireland and Ireland. Johnson does not want the negotiations to be extended beyond 31 October. This makes a no deal exit more likely. But if Johnson turns Britain into a big tax haven, the economy is likely to boom and the pound will rise again.

The end is near

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Eos, etc. are also facing adversity – the courses are currently in a real deep intoxication. The USA apparently wants to put the digital substitute currencies on a leash. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin declared the use of crypto currencies a “danger to national security”. The politician used heavy verbal guns: “Cybercrime, tax evasion, blackmail, illegal drugs and human trafficking” – all this was financed with it. The state would not ban crypto currencies, Mnuchin said, but it would enforce compliance with financial market rules. In addition, the seven most important industrial countries also want to limit the risks of new digital currencies, according to French figures.

This is what the day brings

In the afternoon, the free real-time prices on your trading platform could move strongly. At 2:30pm the industry index oft he Philly Fed will be published.
At the same time the American first applications for unemployment assistance follow.
At 4:00pm the US early indicators are announced.
At 8:15pm the boss of the New York Fed, John Williams, (voting-entitled in the FOMC) steps with the annual meeting of the Central bank Research Association at the podest.
The G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors will conclude in Chantilly.
Microsoft in particular is likely to cause a stir with the quarterly figures.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

17.07.2019 – Daily report. Always waiting at the start of trading day. Also on Wednesday the pattern of the past days was repeated on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange. Despite Wall Street highs, hopes for US interest rates and a relaxation in Iran. It remains to be seen whether the German benchmark index will pick up speed in the afternoon.

Lazy business in Frankfurt

Until midday, the DAX held up listlessly with a minus of 0.1 percent, just over 12,400 points. And the general conditions are not so bad at all: the evening before in Paris, US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had again declared the Fed’s willingness to lower the key interest rate. The Federal Reserve would “act appropriately if necessary”. And the Dow Jones had also briefly reached a new all-time high the evening before. There were also positive signals regarding Iran.

Relaxation in the Persian Gulf

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said in an interview with NBC News that Tehran is still sitting at the negotiating table – the USA has left him. But America is always welcome to return. The enrichment of uranium could be stopped within hours. US President Donald Trump and Secretary of State Mike Pompeo picked up the ball in front of journalists in the White House. Trump said it wasn’t about a regime change, “we want them out of Yemen.” And Pompeo added that Tehran is now ready to negotiate its missile program for the first time. The oil market reacted with falling prices.

Trump threatens China

However, there was also a drop of bitterness in global trade. US President Donald Trump dampened hopes that the conflict with China could be resolved in the near future. Trump said it was still a long way to an agreement with the People’s Republic. In addition, the president threatened that he could imagine imposing further import duties against the People’s Republic. In Tokyo, the leading Nikkei index fell by 0.3 percent to 21,469 points on Wednesday. The Chinese CSI-300 crumbled by 0.1 percent to 3,805 points.

Wait and see on Wall Street

Trading in New York was quite tough on Tuesday. The Dow did reach another record high in early trading. Thereafter, however, the leading index moved only slightly and closed with a minus of 0.1 percent at 27,336 points. The S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent to 3,004 points.
The Old Economy is currently showing its vitality: Turnover in the US retail sector rose more strongly than expected in June. The prices of imported goods had fallen more sharply than at any time in almost three years – the trade dispute with China has therefore by no means had a negative impact on American consumers. However, industrial production and capacity utilization showed a mixed picture, with inventories rising in May. But the mood on the US housing market had brightened in July. As always, you can find all economic data here: Market Mover
What remains is the view of the New Economy. The Nasdaq 100 closed yesterday 0.5 percent lower at 7,927 points. This is a development that CFD traders should keep an eye on: Trump apparently takes a statement by investor Peter Thiel seriously, who indirectly accuses Google of treason and too close cooperation with the Chinese military. Trump twittered that his administration would take a look.

The end is near

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin, Eos, etc. are also facing adversity – the courses are currently in a real deep intoxication. The USA apparently wants to put the digital substitute currencies on a leash. On Tuesday, US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin declared the use of crypto currencies a “danger to national security”. The politician used heavy verbal guns: “Cybercrime, tax evasion, blackmail, illegal drugs and human trafficking” – all this was financed with it. The state would not ban crypto currencies, Mnuchin said, but it would enforce compliance with financial market rules. In addition, the seven most important industrial countries also want to limit the risks of new digital currencies, according to French figures.

This is what the day brings

Wednesday will see some important data and quarterly figures, so keep an eye on your trading platform.
So Netflix, IBM, Alcoa and Ebay report from 10:00pm German time.
Prior to that, the US construction starts and permits for June are due at 2:30pm.
At 4:30pm the inventory data of crude oil of the national Energy Information Administration follow.
And at 8:00pm the Beige Book gives an insight into the mood of the Federal Reserve.
In addition, the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Chantilly runs until tomorrow. Important news for stocks, bonds and foreign exchange can be expected here at any time.
So the table is richly set – make sure that your direct market access with a broker with a Bafin license is always open.
The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

16.07.2019 – Daily report. Is the DAX finally making any headway? On Tuesday, this will depend primarily on new US economic data. And on the figures from major US banks in the balance sheet season. In any case, not even the new Wall Street records recently brought German stocks up.

The DAX hesitates

Monday had finally brought German investors another day of gains for the DAX. On Tuesday, however, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange once again lagged behind in a lack of direction. On Tuesday morning, the leading index remained almost unchanged at just under 12,400 points. Investors first analyzed the ZEW economic index, the exact figures can be found as usual here: Market Mover
However, in view of the quarterly figures from major US banks arriving in the afternoon, only a few brokers dared to leave cover. The second quarter data from JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and Wells Fargo also provides information on the impact of the ongoing trade dispute between China and the US on corporate performance. A bunch of US economic data should point in the same direction. Johnson & Johnson could also provide impetus for Beiersdorf and Henkel.

Asia in reverse gear

Shareholders in Asia were cautious on Tuesday. The Nikkei fell by 0.7 percent to 21,535 points after the holiday break at the beginning of the week. The Chinese CSI-300 fell by 0.5 percent to 3,807 points. Incidentally, US President Donald Trump provided a differentiated reading of yesterday’s China data. He twittered that the growth of the Chinese gross domestic product of 6.2 percent in the second quarter had been the weakest in more than 27 years. US tariffs had an effect – thousands of companies left China. And that is why China wants a deal in the customs dispute. Let’s wait and see.

Close records in New York

Already the evening before, Wall Street had felt the reluctance in view of the balance sheet season. After all, the leading indices were once again able to reach record highs. The lethargic Dow Jones Industrial, for example, set a new record with 27,365 points. The Dow finally closed with a plus of 0.1 percent at 27,359 points. The S&P 500 hardly measurably went 0.02 percent firmer at 3014 points out of the day. And the Nasdaq rose by 0.3 percent to 7,967 points.
Citigroup kicked off the reporting season. In the second quarter, the bank earned significantly more than in the same period of the previous year; turnover and adjusted earnings per share exceeded analysts’ estimates. However, revenues in the trading division had once again fallen sharply, and classic investment banking had also weakened.

Burnt cash in the oil market

What remains is an important side aspect of the reporting season for the energy market. The question is whether investors are slowly losing patience with the small American oil producers. According to Oilprice.com, the shale-drillers in the oil and gas sector have burned around $187 billion in cash since 2012. Although production took off, profits were largely absent. After meetings with investors, Goldman Sachs noted that portfolio managers were currently hiding from the industry. In concrete terms, this means that investors are focusing on midstream and integrated companies – the majors – as well as clean energy. Service companies on the oil fields are currently particularly unpopular.

This is what the day brings

This afternoon, CFD traders in equities, bonds and forex, as well as the entire global trading community, will be facing several important U.S. economic data.
For British pound traders, it will be exciting at 2:00pm when Mark Joseph Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, steps in front of the microphones.
At 2:30pm German time, the news agencies report US retail sales in June.
At 3:15pm the industrial production follows in June.
And at 4:00pm the NAHB index for July is due, the figures of the National Association of Home Builders provide information about the construction sector.
Also at 4:00pm the American stocks are reported in May.
Finally, at 7:00pm, Fed chief Jerome Powell takes the floor. He speaks at a dinner of the Bank of France.
The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

15.07.2019 – Daily report. In the beginning, the DAX also gained: After the summit storm on Wall Street on Friday, German equities followed suit on Monday morning. But even strong data from China did not help the German benchmark index to maintain its strength on Monday.

Frankfurt only follows briefly

Like the pictures are the same: Last week, the German stock market lagged behind the US due to a series of profit warnings. On Monday morning, the leading index in Frankfurt initially climbed to 12,400 points. Only then to lose the profits again. The economic skepticism simply does not want to give way. Real news from Germany was in short supply during the holiday season. What remains is a bizarre announcement from the Munich Stock Exchange: as of today, football fans can subscribe to the shares of the Unterhaching football club for 8.10 euros. Note: The round must be square and the subscription period ends – subject to early closure – on 26.07.2019 at 12:00 noon.

China convinces

For CFD traders, the ball rolled in Asia on Monday. While the Japanese market remained closed due to a holiday, China gained ground. The CSI-300 rose by 0.4 percent to 3,824 points. Although growth in the Chinese economy declined in the second quarter, it met experts’ expectations. China’s gross domestic product (GDP) rose by 6.2 percent within a year, compared with a plus of 6.4 percent in the first quarter. Industrial production and retail sales rose strongly in June by 6.3 percent and 9.8 percent respectively. The economic stimulus programs launched by Beijing are thus apparently having an effect. All important information can be found here: https://bernstein-bank.com/de/research/#Market

Triple record on Wall Street

In New York, bullish investors were able to pop the corks on Friday. The prospect of falling interest rates combined with a solid economy set records for the Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. The Dow climbed by 0.9 percent to 27,332 points. On a weekly basis, the increase amounted to 1.5 percent; since 1 January, it has already risen by a good 17 percent. The S&P 500 climbed by 0.5 percent to 3,014 points on Friday – the collective index closed above the 3000 mark for the first time. The Nasdaq 100 rose by 0.6 percent to 7,943 positions.

Oil glut ahead

There remains an interesting request to speak on the oil market. The statisticians of the International Energy Agency have just warned of an oil glut. According to this, the market recorded an oversupply in the first half of the year, which the Paris-based IEA had not expected. Thus the global oversupply in the first six months of the year was 0.9 million barrels per day, as Oilprice.com quotes the IEA. In the second quarter the plus was still at 0.5 million barrels per day, the IEA had expected a deficit of 0.5 million barrels. This means that the inventories built up in the second half of 2018 were filled even more. In view of the robust oil shale production in the USA, the wave could spill over into the market in 2020. CFD traders should therefore keep an eye on this development.

This is what the day brings

The calendar is rather thinly filled on Monday. The most important date of the day is the Empire State Index, which is scheduled for 14.30 hrs. The economic barometer of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York gives information about details of a possible interest rate cut of the Federal Reserve. The statements of New York Fed chief John Carroll Williams are important.

In addition, the US reporting season will begin in the second quarter. Citigroup is making the start.

Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.