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23/05/2018 – 10:00 am: In the middle of the week, the leading German index starts the trading day with a minus of around 0.6 percent and expands this minus to 1.4 percent in the first few minutes of trading. The Dax is currently trading at 13,008 points.

Against the backdrop of negative targets from the USA and the Asian stock exchanges, the trading day on the Frankfurt trading floor began with a minus. During yesterday’s trading session, the Dax still reached its highest level since January 2018, but the selling pressure seems to have increased this morning. The Dow Jones Index closed at 24,834 points, down 0.72 percent. The broader S&P 500 lost around 0.3 percent and closed the trading day at 2724 points. Analysts cite the currently difficult trade negotiations between the US and China as the background to the weaker day.

With Argus eyes, investors worldwide are following the continuing difficult formation of a government in Italy. Currently, the members of the alliance of the 5-star movement and the “Lega” party still seem to be looking for a head of government. A shaky game, not least for the European single currency. At 1.1750 US dollars, the euro is currently down about 0.2 percent.

On the economic and business cycle news page, investors are waiting for the publication of several purchasing managers’ indices from Germany and the euro zone. After the close of the European stock market, the US Federal Reserve still publishes its minutes from the beginning of May.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

17/05/2018 – 09:00 am: After the leading German index gained a few points on the previous day, the Dax remains virtually unchanged at 12,987 points in the early trading session . In addition to other balance sheet results, investors are likely to keep an eye on the formation of a government in Italy today.

Since the targets from the USA cannot provide any acute impetus, investors and analysts expect an unchanged start to today’s trading day. During the current reporting season, Deutsche Telekom, SAP and the car manufacturer BMW will today provide insights into the past quarter.

The focus today should be on the possible formation of a government in Italy and the closely linked development of the European currency. Yesterday, the euro hit a temporary low for the year at 1.1764 US dollars. Not least because of the plans from Italy to bring significant increases in expenditure with accompanying tax cuts on the way. Both points should be difficult or even impossible to reconcile with the monetary union stability agreements.

On the economic and business news side, things remain relatively quiet today. In the afternoon, the first applications for unemployment assistance from the central bank of Philadelphia are on the agenda in the USA.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

16/05/2018 – 11:00 am: The political situation has the markets under control again. The oil price, which has recently been somewhat weaker, trades stil over USD 70 per barrel, close to multi-year highs.

Concerns about Venezuela’s exports and the effects of Iran sanctions are driving the black gold. Not least for this reason, the 10-year US yields continue to trade above the 3% mark, remaining within striking distance of the recently marked 7-year highs.

Friendly US yields are also driving the US-Dollar, which has reached an annual high against the euro (1.183). The common currency is also burdened by the formation of a coalition in Italy. The „Five-Star-Movement“ wants to demand a debt write-off of 250 billion euros from the ECB – and also demands a exit-mechanism to leave the monetary union. The stock markets are still relaxed about the hustle and bustle on the political front. Dax, Dow & Co. are currently consolidating their most recent price gains. Stock traders probably think it’s the same as always and political stock markets have short legs.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

15/05/2018 – 10:00 am: On the second day of the trading week, the leading German index starts trading at a discount of around 30 points and is currently trading below the 13,000 mark at 12,952 points.

Against the background of almost unchanged closing prices from the USA and the Asian stock markets, the Dax lacks any impetus for the start of trading. Investors are likely to hold back in the first few hours of trading as some balance sheet results need to be processed. Today, in addition to Commerzbank, the pharmaceutical group Merck and Allianz are providing insights into their books.

On the economic data page, investors and analysts await the publication of some German and European key figures on economic growth and economic expectations by the Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW). The forecast for the ZEW Index is 2.0 points. A value above zero indicates an optimistic expectation. On the other side of the Atlantic, the economic expectations of the New York Fed are published alongside retail sales for April.
The European single currency can absorb its recent slide somewhat so that one euro an hour costs 1.1924 US dollars.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

11/05/2018 – 10:00 am: After the leading German index climbed to the psychologically important level of 13,000 points on yesterday’s trading day, the stock market barometer is trying to maintain this level today. At 13,002 points, the Dax is currently trading extremely thinly above this level.

On the last trading day of this week, some companies will once again give an insight into their quarterly financial statements. In addition to the world’s largest steel giant Arcelor-Mittal, Talanx AG will also give a look at its books.

On the other side of the Atlantic, the stock markets also ended yesterday’s trading behind positive signs. The Dow Jones Indes gained 0.8 percent during the course of trading and dropped out of the day with around 24,740 points. The technology exchange NASDAQ and the broader S&P 500 gained 0.9 percent and closed the trading session with 7404 points and 2723 points respectively.

On the Asian stock markets, the good targets set by the USA were also implemented positively, enabling the Japanese Nikkei to mark the highest level of the past three months at 22.662 points. The increase was around 0.75 percent.

On the economic side, investors and analysts await today’s publication on US consumer confidence of the University of Michigan. Especially against the background of the current US interest rate policy, consumer confidence could gain increased attention.

The common European currency is currently trading almost unchanged at USD 1.1922.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

08/05/2018 – 10:00 am: Despite a slightly weaker start into the trading day the German leading index continues to target the psychologically important 13,000 point mark. At 12,919 points, the Dax is currently down around 0.2 percent.

After a brilliant start to the new trading week, investors seem to be waiting on the sidelines on Tuesday morning. However, this should not be unusual against the background of many quarterly balance sheets to be published.

Yesterday, the leading German index reached its highest level since February of this year. The stock market barometer profited significantly from the continued weaker performance of the euro. Against the backdrop of worse-than-expected economic data from Germany, one euro yesterday cost less than 1.19 US dollars in some cases. A blessing for European companies that generate the lion’s share of their sales from exports.
On the other side of the Atlantic, the leading indices rose slightly, leaving the Dow Jones Index at 24,357 points and the technology index NASDAQ out of trading at 7265 points. For both indices this means a daily increase of 0.3 – 0.4 percent.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

27/04/2018 – 11:00 am: Given the fact of positive data from overseas, the leading German index begins the trading day with a brilliant plus. At 12,600 points, the Dax is currently up around 0.8 percent.

At the end of a week in which, in addition to various balance sheet figures, investors focused on the meeting of Macron and Trump as well as North Korean President Kim Jong Un and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, the overall situation eased.
The very solid start to the German stock market was due in particular to the positive figures from USA and Asia. The Dow Jones Index closed yesterday’s trading session with an increase of around one percent and the NASDAQ even gained 1.6 percent. At the technology exchange, the balance sheet results of Facebook and AMD were particularly positive for investors and analysts.

In the Asian markets, the results of the US session were also positively received, with the Japanese Nikkei gaining 0.7 percent and ending the trading session at 22,467 points.

In addition to data on economic growth in the UK, Spain, France and the US, investors are likely to watch with suspicion today’s meeting between Angela Merkel and Donald Trump. In addition to the American protective tolls, the current situation around Russia and Iran’s nuclear programme are likely to be on the agenda of the two heads of state.

The common European currency is currently trading slightly down at USD 1.2083.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

19/04/2018 – 13:00 am: The protectionist measures that the USA is taking against its trading partners are now also leaving their mark on Germany. The recession indicator for Europe’s largest economy calculated by the Hans Böckler Foundation jumps to its highest level since March 2016 and now signals a recession probability of 32.4% after values of 6.8% were measured in March.
The indicator is calculated on three components: The change in industrial production, stock market volatility and sentiment indicators (such as the purchasing manager indices) and is based on a „traffic light system“. After a prolonged green wave that has lasted since mid-2016, the indicator now jumps into the yellow range. At least caution is called for at the moment!
It is to be expected that this warning signal will also have an impact on the ECB’s monetary policy. Especially in view of the still weak inflationary trend. The rate of inflation in the monetary union is currently “only” 1.4% and thus significantly below the targeted 2% inflation rate that the ECB is aiming for. Restrictive monetary policy measures are therefore not expected in the short term.
As a result, it remains to be seen that the interest rate differential between the USA – where four interest rate hikes are expected in 2018 – and Europe will widen further. In this context, it is also difficult to imagine that the euro can continue its strength against the greenback.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

18/04/2018 – 17:00 am: The dollar is weakening, a traditionally good environment for the gold price, which tends to develop more positively in times of dollar weakness. In addition to the verbal attacks and tweets of the US president – who is trying to weaken the dollar – the escalating trade war between the USA and China is also helping to make gold appear to be back in fashion. In terms of charting, the gold price is trending towards its highs in 2016 and 2017 – roughly be located in the price range between 1,360 and 1,375 USD. A break from this important resistance could push the gold price above the 1,400 USD mark again. But history shows that for such an important outbreaks the market needs a fundamental catalyst.

Much will depend on the further course of US monetary policy. More than half of the members of the US Fed’s monetary policy committee expects four rate hikes in 2018, which in turn could support the dollar, which appears to be oversold in the medium to long term if you look at the Dollar-Index. In addition, inflation figures from the UK and the EU were recently reported below expectations and are at least not depressing the real interest rate (nominal interest rate minus inflation rate). At least for now it looks as if the focus of the gold bulls is pointed too much on the tweets of the US-President than on the hard facts of monetary policy.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

12/04/2018 – 11:10 am: In view of the impending escalation in Syria, investors remain on the sidelines until further notice. Although the US president had rowed back again after announcing his intention to intervene militarily in the conflict, he recently only described this intervention as a possible option. Nevertheless, the scenario of a direct confrontation between the US and Russia in the Middle East has considerable potential. Accordingly, the US stock indices had gone weaker out of trading. The same applies to the stock markets in the Far East.

Against this background, the leading German index shows relative strength with a moderate minus of currently 0.2 percent. The volatility reflecting the uncertainty should remain high in this mixed situation. A tendency is not discernible in this context. Positive and negative news can have a direct impact on the prices and determine the further direction. Against this background, investors are playing it safe and keeping their powder dry until further notice.

In addition to the further development in Syria, economic data from both sides of the Atlantic are also attracting attention today. While February industrial production figures and the most recent ECB meeting minutes need to be evaluated in the Euro Zone, the focus in the USA is on weekly initial applications for unemployment benefits and the development of import and export prices in March.

Important notes on this publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.