News

19.01.2024 – A strong statement from Wall Street: the Nasdaq 100 has reached a new high. A whole bunch of smaller news items boosted share prices. Above all, the hope of a Goldilocks situation created a buying mood: lower interest rates with a strong economy.

The new year begins with a new peak – the Nasdaq 100 has produced a nice rally. Here is the daily chart.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

Let’s take a look at the background. Firstly, there was positive news for the two Nasdaq heavyweights Nvidia and Apple. The most important supplier Taiwan Semiconductor announced a return to solid growth.

Soft landing
In addition, the lockdown in the US was averted for the time being – and, as always, at the last minute. There had been a dispute in the US Congress since September. Now the two chambers of parliament are once again voting in favour of a temporary budget solution.
Hopes of a soft landing for the US economy also increased – fears of a recession receded. The number of new weekly applications for unemployment benefits fell to a 16-month low. Unemployment claims slipped by 16,000 to 187,000; most forecasts had put the figure at 205,000.
In addition, new housing starts in December were stronger than expected. Specifically, they fell by 4.3 per cent month-on-month to 1.46 million – the forecast had only been 1.425 million. The property market is therefore proving to be relatively robust, although the decline does not indicate overheating. The home ownership situation and demand for mortgages in particular has been a permanent factor in higher interest rates under the central bank’s hawks.

Interest rate cut ahead
The head of the Atlanta Fed, Raphael Bostic, meanwhile, explained that he expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates from the third quarter onwards. According to Barchart.com, the market only believes that the key interest rate will remain unchanged for the time being: only 3 per cent of players see a rate cut of 25 basis points at the end of January. However, 56 per cent already expect this for the following meeting in March.
As the Federal Reserve has already signalled an end to tightening anyway, the chances of a win-win scenario for the bulls have increased: Lower interest rates and an economy running at full speed – falling borrowing costs for high-tech companies, many of which are still living on credit, and the prospect of rising profits. A Goldilocks scenario. We are excited to see what happens next – Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades and investments!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

18.01.2024 – Crude oil is not really getting off the ground. Despite the various conflicts everywhere, traders see a market in stalemate. However, as soon as decisive news arrives, things could move very quickly in one direction or the other.

The sharp rise in Brent since the Hamas attack on Israel on 7 October has long since been worked off. The nervousness has subsided and the price has fallen back. Oil has made itself comfortable in a relatively narrow channel – here is the daily chart of Brent.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

Israel could decide to take out Hezbollah in Lebanon after Hamas. In any case, the fighting in Lebanon is increasing. The skirmishes between Iran and Pakistan could also move the price if they escalate; the same applies to the attacks by the USA and the UK on the Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen. Otherwise, the news has been mixed recently.

OPEC and Occidental bullish
OPEC sees increased demand on the horizon. In its Monthly Oil Market Report for January, OPEC stated that solid demand from China will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025. The organisation expects economic output to increase by 2.8 per cent next year, compared to 2.6 per cent in 2024.
Meanwhile, the latest economic data from China provided no reason to buy. In the fourth quarter of 2023, the economy grew by 5.2 per cent, compared to 4.9 per cent in the third quarter. However, the figure was around 0.1 per cent below most analysts’ estimates.
Of course, Occidental Oil also sounded the alarm: the world is facing a collapse in supply from 2025, said Group CEO Vicki Hollub at the World Economic Forum in Davos. The ratio of resources to demand has fallen to 25 per cent. Hollub said: “2025 and beyond is when the world is going to be short of oil.” In view of ageing oil fields, the oil industry must invest more in the development of new deposits.
On the long side, news from North Dakota did not really provide a boost: production here has fallen by up to 700,000 barrels, but presumably only for a few days.

IEA and Standard Chartered bearish
Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency sees no reason for a price shock: the oil market is well supplied this year.
Meanwhile, the major bank Standard Chartered sided with the bears. The market is showing signs of ignoring risks and the situation is similar to that at the beginning of 2023, the experts said, pointing to the possibility that the oversupply is greater than in previous years. In addition, the USA and Europe are the sources of weak demand and not China.
All in all, the oil price currently remains trapped in a stalemate: “Brent crude prices remain broadly stuck in a range as they has been over the past two weeks, as market participants struggle to weigh mixed demand-supply dynamics with prevailing geopolitical tensions,” said Yeap Jun Rong, analyst at IG Market, in an interview with Reuters. With this in mind, we will keep an eye on the situation for you!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

16.01.2024 – If some augurs are right, then the market will soon be flooded with fresh money again. In other words, the Federal Reserve’s quantitative tightening is apparently about to come to an end. At the very least, it is likely to be slowed down. The reason is apparently liquidity problems in the interbank market.

The Federal Reserve’s presumed about-turn could give the market a new boost. This is because a large wave of money is likely to flow back into Wall Street and the real economy. That would be the consequences: Equities long, dollar short, precious metals long, just like other commodities. The picture shows an example of the daily chart of the S&P 500.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

This is the background: The brilliant financial blog “ZeroHedge” once again referred to a development that is said to have started back in December. According to the blog, the interbank market is the canary that has just tipped off the perch – the SOFR (Secured Overnight Financing Rate) reached its highest level since the repo crisis in March 2020 weeks ago. In other words, banks urgently need fresh money and are therefore prepared to pay higher interest rates in overnight lending. The Fed’s quantitative tightening has dried up the available liquidity, as Lorie Logan, head of the Dallas Fed, also recently stated.

Signals from WSJ and JPM
And now the mouthpiece of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has also spoken out. Nick Timiraos from the “Wall Street Journal” confirmed that QT will be curbed: “Fed officials are to start deliberations on slowing, though not ending, that so-called quantitative tightening as soon as their policy meeting this month. It could have important implications for financial markets.”
As luck would have it, JP Morgan made a similar judgement: “We now expect that the FOMC will have the outline of a timeline at the January meeting, communicated mid-February minutes to that meeting. We expect that this plan will be formally agreed to at the mid-March meeting and will be implemented beginning in April.” In other words, the previous monthly reduction in available Treasuries will be lowered from USD 60 billion to USD 30 billion from this date at the latest – in the course of tightening, the Fed has allowed bonds and mortgages to expire without replacing them with new ones.
Our conclusion: If the tightening is reduced, the bulls can rejoice. Especially as interest rate cuts are also possible. However, there is one important caveat: if investors start to worry that any major banks are reeling, things will get uncomfortable. Much will depend on the Fed’s wording, i.e. the justification for the renewed increase in liquidity. We look forward to seeing what happens next and will keep you up to date!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

11.01.2024 – Now it’s really done: the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has granted approval for the authorisation of spot-based index funds for Bitcoin. And how is BTCUSD reacting? Not at all. The music is playing on Ether.

Milestone, revolution, turning point, breakthrough – the financial media are overflowing with superlatives in their assessment of the authorisation. And Bitcoin? It’s not really getting anywhere, as shown in the four-hour chart.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

Yet even the rather conservative “Wirtschaftswoche” has just gone out on a limb in its online version: “A lot of money should soon be flowing into the sector – and the Bitcoin price should continue to rise.” In view of so much optimism, the question arises as to whether all the bulls are already in the market. And whether perhaps, perhaps there will be a countermovement first.

The SEC remains sceptical
The question now is also whether fresh money will flow from conservative savers to large fund companies that they trust. Or whether investors who hold Bitcoin directly will prefer to put their money in an index fund because they assume that these will be better able to deal with the regulatory authorities in the event of repression.
Perhaps the market’s muted reaction is also due to the rather lukewarm approval of the Securities and Exchange Commission. Their verdict was quite close at 3:2. And SEC Chairman Gary Gensler once again confirmed himself as an enemy of cryptos, which could point to new problems for investors. Specifically, he stated that the SEC does not approve of digital assets with its authorisation and does not recommend them: “Investors should remain cautious about the myriad risks associated with Bitcoin and products whose value is tied to crypto.”
Accordingly, star investor Cathie Wood was rather disgruntled by Gensler’s statement immediately after the announcement of the authorisation for around a dozen funds that are allowed to start trading with immediate effect. “He just denigrated the whole crypto space. I couldn’t believe it,” Wood said in an interview with Bloomberg Radio. “This is part for the course in disruptive innovation.”

Ether is taking off
However, the bullish investor community has long since moved on. And it pays homage to Ether. Its little brother is set to be authorised as a spot ETF in May. Now the party is on, here is the four-hour chart.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

We hope you had the right instinct – and we will of course continue to keep an eye on the situation with e-currencies. Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades and investments!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

10.01.2024 – Applause, applause: the authorisation of the first spot-based index funds for Bitcoin is turning into a thriller. Or is it a comedy of errors? Either way, a seemingly positive message on X/Twitter initially brought relief. Then the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) applied the handbrake: Fake news – there’s no decision yet. The back and forth has burnt a lot of traders – and presumably made the fraudsters rich. Many investors are now betting on ether – things are currently calmer here.

It can happen that quickly: In the midst of the fever of the hoped-for approval, SEC chief Gary Gensler ostensibly gave the go-ahead for Bitcoin ETFs. Then came the cold shower: the whole thing was a hoax. Here is the hourly chart of BTCUSD.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

Particularly embarrassing: Gensler, after all pretty much the most important man in the financial world, was apparently unable to use two-factor authentication for his account. Which is why it was hacked. This is the fake news:

That’s the real denial:

Now the dust is gradually settling and the trader community is starting to ponder. Perhaps the current hype surrounding the market leader BTC is simply too great. Every rumour sends the market into a wild spin. And perhaps it is better to invest in the number two. The daily chart speaks volumes. We are curious to see whether there will soon be turbulence here too.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

If the approval of a Bitcoin ETF does not turn into a “sell the news” event, then Ether is well positioned for a bull market, author Yashu Gola from CoinTelegraph has just stated. From a fundamental perspective, this means that a Bitcoin ETF will increase the exposure of traditional investors and boost demand. In a positive case, Ether could rise to USD 3,870 by March. In the event of a delay or rejection by the SEC, the price could slide to USD 1,865 by February.
Our conclusion: We are curious to see what happens next. Maybe you’ll just enjoy the show with a bag of popcorn. If you do get into the ring, perhaps you should build a straddle or strangle with tight stops and simultaneous long and short positions. Or you could be right with a little play money and strike it rich. Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades and investments!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

09.01.2024 –  According to CoinTelegraph, 10 January is the deadline for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to approve spot index funds for Bitcoin. If the verdict is in favour, the price could zoom away. Or the disappointment could rage if the SEC gives it the thumbs down. A sell the news is also possible.

There has been a lot going on with Bitcoin recently. Firstly, there was the small flash crash at the start of the year – triggered primarily by fake news from China, which triggered massive stop losses. A fake screenshot circulated on the web claiming that the police had carried out a raid in Fuzhou. They are said to have confiscated 38,000 Ether tokens and thousands of Bitcoin. After the local authorities denied this, the price of BTC recovered again, here is the four-hour chart.

The fake news had fallen on fertile ground because Chinese investigators had actually shut down the Multichain platform in July 2023. CEO Zhaojun He was arrested and has not been seen or heard from since. Around six months ago, assets totalling 1 billion dollars were temporarily frozen.

Target price 200,000
And now the big event. Should the SEC actually give the green light for the authorisation of spot Bitcoin ETFs, Standard Chartered predicted a price of around 200,000 dollars by the end of 2025. According to the bank’s forecast, between 437,000 and 1.3 million BTC tokens are likely to be held in index funds in the US by then. The inflow of capital will amount to between 50 and 100 billion dollars.

Cryptic warning
Interestingly, Gary Gensler, declared enemy of cryptos and head of the SEC, posted a strange message on X/Twitter yesterday in the midst of the swelling buying frenzy. Without naming any specific ETFs, he warned that some asset managers may not comply with federal laws and that cryptos “can be exceptionally risky” and “often volatile.” He continued: “Fraudsters continue to exploit the rising popularity of crypto assets to lure retail investors into scams. (…) These investments continue to be replete w/ fraud- bogus coin offerings, Ponzi & pyramid schemes, & outright theft where a project promoter disappears w/ investors’ money.”
So we are curious to see whether this was a warning sign of rejection. So is there gold or just tinsel? A confirmation of hopes? Or a sell-off due to disappointment? Fortunately, you can make good profits with CFDs, both long and short. We will keep you up to date on this exciting topic!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

08.01.2024 – Now that’s a dissenting voice: Wall Street has just produced a brilliant year-end rally, and now a fund manager is warning of the biggest crash of all time. We may not have been familiar with economist Harry Dent before, but he could still be right.

The head of the investment boutique HS Dent Investment Management recently said in an interview with Fox Business News that the bubble began at the end of 2021 after the Covid pandemic. Now a reset is imminent, like after the Great Depression of 1929, and the coming year will bring the B wave of the “everything bubble”. According to him, the first wave already hit the market in 2022.

The end of all assets
And then the investment manager got specific for 2024: “That’s an 86% crash in the S&P and a 92% crash in the NASDAQ. And crypto, it’s going to be 96%. So that’s a big deal,” the expert said. We think so: With such an asset armageddon, the Volatility Index will jump sharply upwards, here is the weekly chart.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

And it is not only the financial market that will suffer, according to Dent: “And real estate, by the way, is only projected, by me, to go back to its 2012 lows… but that’s a 50% crash for the average house, which went down 34% in the last crash, more than the Great Depression, more than any time in history. That’s what’s going to hurt people the most.”

The “everything bubble”
The reason for the bubble bursting is all the air money that not only the Federal Reserve has pumped into the market. “Since 2009, this has been 100 per cent artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits: $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact,” said Dent. The economy needs to normalise, he said, and this will happen through the collapse of valuations.
His advice: anyone holding back now from a market with the highest valuation in history might miss out on a few profits. But if he is right, anyone who is cautious will avoid massive losses and will be able to reinvest their money in about a year and a half at incredibly low prices.

Always pessimistic
The problem: Mr Dent is a perma-bear. Back in 2009, he predicted a mega crash in his book “The Great Depression Ahead”. Except for the Covid setback, he was wrong. But Dent is not alone. A few weeks ago, John Hussman, head of the Hussman Investment Trust, who correctly predicted the 2008 crash, forecast a market loss of 63 per cent in the S&P 500 over the next ten to twelve years. This time horizon is of course too long for us. But if there are shockwaves ahead, they will of course be of interest to traders in the coming year. The nice thing about CFD trading is that we can make good profits with short positions even in a crash. We wish you every success for 2024!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

04.01.2024 –  Forecasts for the coming equity year differ widely among the top names on the US financial market. We shed light on the background.

Opinions differ on the S&P 500. We think so: After the brilliant year-end rally, cashing in is probably the order of the day. Here is the weekly chart.

Quelle: Bernstein Bank GmbH

We will probably see some revisions to forecasts in the coming weeks. This is because some outlooks were delivered before the recent Santa rally.

Goldman and Citi: 5,100
Let’s start with Goldman Sachs. The upmarket address on Wall Street recently raised its target for the SPX at the end of 2024 once again – by a whopping 9 per cent from 4,700 in the previous forecast to 5,100 points.
The reason for the adjustment is the Federal Reserve’s new, dovish tone at the latest meeting and a slowdown in inflation. “Decelerating inflation and Fed easing will keep real yields low and support a price-to-earnings multiple greater than 19x,” said David Kostin, Chief US Equity Strategist. He pointed out that inflation is cooling rapidly and is approaching the Fed’s target of 2 per cent. This means that the central bank will cut interest rates much sooner than investors had previously expected. For similar reasons, Citibank also sees the SPX facing a big year for equities – with a year-end 2024 level of 5100 points as well.

JP Morgan: 4,200
JP Morgan is far more cautious: the investment bank only sees a price target of 4,200 for the S&P 500 and a “downside bias”. The analysts are by no means expecting rapid easing by the Fed. Moreover, global growth is slow, which is overshadowing the outlook for equities. There is only a moderate risk of recession for the global economy. Nevertheless, inflation will remain stubbornly above the central banks’ comfort zones. Current market expectations of an economic upturn in the industrialised countries are therefore likely to be disappointed. Weak growth and geopolitical risks are therefore weighing on equities.

Morgan Stanley: 4,500
Morgan Stanley is also among the pessimists – its target price for the SPX next December is 4,500 points. This is because Europe and the emerging markets could disappoint investors. In the USA, however, a moderate recovery in profits is set to begin. Specifically, it said: “For December 2024, we forecast a 17.0x P/E multiple on 12-month forward EPS (2025) of $266, which equates to a 4,500 price target ~12 months from today. Our 2024 earnings forecast of $229 (+7%Y) assumes 4-5%Y topline growth in addition to modest margin expansion as labour cost pressures ease.” It went on to say that the current market valuation leaves no room for error – many investors have high expectations with regard to inflation, the labour market and corporate margins.
We are excited to see how the stock market develops – we wish you successful trades and investments!

___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

03.01.2024 – Here we go: the authorisation of spot index funds for e-currencies is probably imminent. The bulls are scurrying about – one investor is hoping for a gigantic wave of capital totalling 30 trillion dollars. Others are more cautious.

Traders, listen to the signals: if what some augurs believe is true, then the first spot ETFs will be authorised in the next few days. The two journalists James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, both from Bloomberg, recently considered it possible that the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will make a decision on Bitcoin funds as early as 10 January. A statement on ether funds will not be made until May. This means we could see a mega rally in BTC, here is the weekly chart.

Quelle: Bernstein Bank GmbH

However, there will also be traders who sell in the middle of the wave. Star investor Cathie Wood from ARK Invest recently warned of just such a “sell the news”. We believe that all those who fanned the flames recently could go short.

30 trillion or just 2.4 billion?
Michael Sonnenshein, for example, head of Grayscale Investments. He said a few weeks ago on CNBC that he expected “$30 trillion worth of advised wealth” to pour into the market. In other words, 30 trillion dollars.
It can also be a number smaller: “CoinTelegraph” reported, citing unnamed experts, that new ETFs could eclipse the current total market of around 50 billion dollars in crypto-based products. These are currently mainly ETPs – exchange-traded products, i.e. funds that are mostly based on futures.
Fund manager Van Eck even assumes that the authorisation of spot ETFs will only bring around 2.4 billion dollars into the market. We are curious.

Deadline 29 December
The fact is: according to press reports, 14 fund providers want to offer spot BTC ETFs in the future. At Christmas, Fox Business News and Reuters reported that the SEC had set a deadline of 29 December for the fund companies to complete Annex S-1 in their application for approval. This concerns the mode of payment in cash and the obligation to name all parties involved in deals.
According to the Reuters report, the SEC last met with managers from at least seven investment companies on 21 December, including ARK Invest, Grayscale, Blackrock and 21 Shares. Representatives of Nasdaq and the Chicago Board Options Exchange are also said to have been present.
The upshot of all this is that things are getting exciting for cyber currencies. We will keep you up to date on developments!

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The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice. CFDs are complex instruments and are associated with the high risk of losing money quickly because of the leverage effect. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money trading CFD with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFD work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.7

28.12.2023 – Shockwaves threaten the financial market in the coming year. This is due to Donald Trump: instead of “Orange Man Bad”, the motto of the mainstream media could soon be “Orange Man Back”.

Everything has been fine on the stock market recently: the setbacks following the Ukraine invasion and 07/10 have been offset. The Dow Jones has just posted a new record, which is due to the expected easing of US monetary policy, here is the weekly chart.

Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH

The fact that Russia attacked Ukraine in the first place and that Hamas has now struck out against Israel is also due to the weakness of the current president in the White House. We don’t even need to talk about Europe: Appeasement everywhere. The pace could change soon: Donald Trump is on the doorstep again.

Stalin would be proud

Despite – or precisely because of – the various politically motivated indictments by prosecutors appointed by Democrats and handled by judges who were also installed by the Dems, Trump has been ahead of Joe Biden in the opinion polls for weeks. You can follow this very closely on the website “Realclearpolicitics.com” – where you can also find news that our press likes to sweep under the carpet. Four years ago, Biden had a lead of ten percentage points one year before the election; this time, Trump had pulled away to just over three points.

No wonder. Many voters believe that it is a Stalinist-style political campaign when the Supreme Court of Colorado disqualifies Trump from the election because of an alleged coup attempt, even though there is no conviction for it; or when a left-wing judge in New York ruled before the trial even began that Trump inflated real estate values, even though financing banks saw no problems. The calculation is clear, as the left-wing New York Times has just summed up: a single conviction could be enough to scare enough voters and influence the election in the desired direction.

However, since there is a functioning conservative press in the USA, Americans know about the highly probable corruption of the Biden clan and the FBI’s delay in investigating Hunter Biden. Many voters criticize the fact that Trump was indicted for hoarding sensitive documents, while Joe Biden had nothing to worry about. In short: the left’s “lawfare” is rubbing off on Trump. Still – or always?

Ukraine – China – Middle East

If Donald Trump presents the comeback of the century, it will be exciting. In the case of Ukraine, “The Donald” has already outlined what he would do: he would force Moscow to negotiate. If Russia did not agree, America would supply Ukraine with more weapons than ever before. Ukraine would also have to make concessions. This would probably amount to territorial concessions, which would not be enough for Moscow. This poses the risk of Russia stepping up its attacks before the US election.

Iran would have to be prepared for a tougher stance from Trump, such as the renewed freezing of assets – Biden had released billions, and the various terrorist groups thanked him. The military leadership in Tehran would also no longer be safe, as it is now. Furthermore, the Houthi rebels would probably have to brace themselves for military strikes because of their attacks on global trade. The oil price in particular could react to this risk.

Trump would probably reactivate the trade war with China. In addition, Beijing could feel compelled to attack the island over the Taiwan issue before Trump returns. A Taiwan invasion would be the biggest shock ever for the world’s stock markets.

Our conclusion: Rarely has an election year been as exciting as 2024. Incidentally, Citigroup believes in a red wave and a Republican sweep in the Senate. In this case, taxes would probably fall, which would trigger a new surge in consumption and a buying spree on the stock market. Expect the impossible. We wish you successful trades and investments!

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