News

The surge in the markets after bond yields rose has faded. At the moment, investors are at a certain wait-and-see stage to make further decisions. It can now be seen that without some forecasts it will be difficult to return to past levels.

DXY

Initially, many thought that rising US government bond yields might have pushed the Fed to tighten monetary policy earlier than planned. But at the next meeting Jerome Powell stated that the US Federal Reserve will stick to its low interest rate policy for a long time to come. Such conclusions completely ruin plans for an appreciation of the USD against other currencies. Continuing economic easing will invariably lead to a weakening of the USD against all world’s major currencies. Of course, all the other central banks will do their best to smooth these movements out, as it is not profitable to have a strong national currency against the USD in the current market situation. Therefore, in the near future, we will see a swing in the currency markets against the dollar.
The depreciation of the dollar is already very evident in the energy market. Such a boom in oil can hardly be characterised by a quick recovery of the world economy, when quite a number of countries are still quarantined due to COVID-19.
If the US Federal Reserve increases its treasury bond purchases, it means the realisation that inflation in the USA will develop faster than expected after all. Ahead are the next auctions for 10- and 30-year securities, which could once again set a serious trend in financial markets.
Looking at the Fed’s current statements, it is likely that economic and financial policy will not be adjusted much until there are clear signals. Sharp fluctuations in exchange rates, stock market failures are of little concern to the Fed, as they believe everything is within the bounds of deviation and does not need to be adjusted. Once they get close to their lows against other currencies, the US dollar may continue to fall in price, which would not be strange given the huge amount of cheap money flooding the US markets.

What’s in store for us today?

10.30 UK Construction Business Activity Index for February
11.00 EU retail sales in January
14.30 Initial Jobless Claims in USA

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Gold has always been a unique metal. Even before the advent of conventional money, it was already money as well as raw material. Nowadays, gold is still a major savings instrument. It is one of the main reserve assets of most central banks in the world.

Gold

It would seem that in the current world and market situation, the yellow metal should be rising in value, but it is not. What is wrong with gold?
Obviously, gold is under a certain pressure from the banks, which have tried to substitute the notion of current inflation in the USA, which supposedly does not harm the economy in any way. In such a situation, gold, which has always been a protective mechanism against inflation and has been involved in the preservation of savings, has been rendered unnecessary. Hence the sell-offs over the last few months. It is suspected that in the face of such allegations there are deliberately large sales of gold in order to push the price as low as possible. Who could benefit from this? Probably those who want to buy it well below.
It is worth looking at the rest of the commodity markets to see the big picture. In recent weeks, many commodity prices have risen to multi-year highs and some have beaten their historical highs. Those commodities include copper, platinum and oil. Silver, which has almost always followed the lead of gold, is in a completely different position and is about to make another peak.
This correlation with other commodities gives a signal that gold is most likely now in a phase of rest and correction from the all-time highs that were reached last summer.
There are several reasons that a gold rally is already looming somewhere on the horizon. The first is that gold has always been an indicator of inflation. During the 2008-2011 crisis the value of commodities was very high due to fiscal policy and stimulating the economy by increasing the money supply. Now funds are being injected into the US financial system far in excess of past amounts. Trillions of dollars are coming into the market which will affect the price anyway. Will the market not react appropriately? It is unlikely. The second sign is US inflation which is likely to be higher than the Fed is presenting. Lower bond values and insufficient bond buying will put inflationary pressure on the economy anyway, which will drive up the price of gold.
The third sign is that the dollar is the world’s reserve currency. The value of the dollar against a basket of currencies is now at its lowest values since February 2018. A weak dollar should also support the price of the precious metal.
To summarise, gold has taken a short break for now before taking a serious spurt upwards.

What’s in store for us today?

10.30 UK composite PMI for February
14.15 US non-farm payroll change from ADP for February
16.30 US Crude Oil Stocks

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Stock markets have been in free-fall for almost the entire trading week. Such movement in the current situation should come as no surprise to anyone. The value of many assets rose to historic highs. Rising US government bond yields forced investors to revalue assets, which led to a global sell-off in equities. Will this move be a local correction or is it the beginning of a global trend?

S&P500

By now everyone realises that the 10-year bond yield of 1.5% has approached the level of the average dividend yield of the S&P500 index, which at this stage is 1.46%. In such a situation it is more interesting to keep money in risk-free bonds than in US equities. The next negative factor for the stock market decline is the excessive pumping of it with cheap dollars. The average stock in the S&P500 index is now worth 20 times the expected 12-month yield of that security. This is a very large ratio, which indicates that a company’s assets are overvalued.
If bond yields continue to rise, it could lead to an avalanche of asset movements from equities to bonds. The critical level for 10-year bond yields is in the region of 1.8%, which could represent a serious risk for the stock market and the economy as a whole.
The US Federal Reserve, which is buying up treasuries, will come out on top in this situation in any case. At this stage, all statements of the Reserve managers are that the observed capital movements in the markets and inflationary effects are temporary, so no further adjustment is required. In any case, if bond yields rise obscenely, the US Fed can adjust its treasury plans at any time.
But there are a few positives in favour of the stock market. The first is the still-remaining problems with COVID-19. Although vaccination is ongoing, the increase in the disease is not dropping due to the prolonged winter in the USA. The second is the technical picture. The difference between the short and long positions on bonds from CTA (Commodity Trading Advisors), more simply the opinion of advisers on buying or selling trading assets, is placed at 85%. This means that this has been the case in the markets only 15% of the time since 2009, which is a clear signal for a possible correction in bond yields.
As a result, we can say that the current stock market movement looks more like a local correction than a trend change, but still it would be a good idea to keep a close eye on bond yields. In the next few weeks there will be another meeting of the US Federal Reserve which is likely to clarify the situation regarding interest rates and further plans to stimulate the economy. After the Fed’s plans it will be possible to shape the course for the next few months with more precision.

What’s in store for us today?

02.45 China manufacturing activity index for February from Caixin
9.55 German PMI for February
15.00 USA FOMC member Williams speech
16.00 US ISM Manufacturing Index for February

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

A month ago we started a new column. We look at the correlation of the major forex currencies against each other at the end of the month. Today is the last day of February and you can see what has changed during the month.

Forex

What is this chart? It shows the major currencies traded by our traders. The reference date is 00.00 GMT on the 1st of January 2021. From this date, you may follow the rise or fall of each currency against a basket of currencies during the first two months of the year. The red line in the centre of the chart is 00.00 GMT on the 1st of February. That is, this line allows to visually separate January data from February data.
Colours:
Green – dollar
Red – GBP
Yellow – Euro
White – Japanese Yen
Blue – Swiss franc
Brown – Canadian dollar
Orange – Australian dollar
Blue – New Zealand dollar

What do we see on the graph?

• A trend that started in January is usually very hard to stop
• Above we see a clear confirmation of this rule. The strongest currency in January (Pound Sterling) continued to rise against other currencies
• And the weakest currency in January (Japanese yen) also remained the weakest in February
If we get into a medium term trade, we should always understand what is happening with a particular currency pair globally. For example, at the end of January, if we like to trade on the trend, the best solution was to open a long position in the Pound/Yen pair.
The January monthly candlestick closed at 143.5 Yen per 1 Pound. On the last day of February the pair traded at 150 yen per £1. The monthly increase was approximately 4.5%, which is a lot by forex market standards.

What else do we see useful on this graph?

• Strong growth in commodity currencies: Canadian, Australian, New Zealand dollars. Of course, the optimism here is related to the pandemic ending soon. This means that the demand and price for raw materials is rising

• Of particular note is the sharp fall in the Swiss franc. This could be an indication that smart money is not waiting for a collapse in world stock markets. As the franc is considered an asset asylum. Amid daily speculation that the stock market bubble is about to burst, the franc should be appreciating instead of cheapening.

09.00 Switzerland’s Q4 annual GDP data
14.30 US Personal Spending in January
14.30 Chicago PMI for February in the US

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

The English monetary unit resembles the movement of a tank. It rides off-road, crushing its rivals harshly and mercilessly and advancing. From time to time the tank moves out onto the tarmac and speeds up.

GBP/USD

This is exactly what we see in the chart above. Incidentally, it shows a rising channel, which has not changed a bit since our last review of sterling, issued some 10 days ago.
As we have been drawing the attention of our subscribers, the British currency continues to appreciate. And on Wednesday, it accelerated to the point where it even broke the upper boundary of the channel. As we know from technical analysis, such a break-up is false in most of the cases (unlike the channel’s lower boundary). But even such false breakthrough only confirms the force of the market trend.

New inputs for the pound and the UK economy have emerged

The UK Prime Minister has proposed a plan to lift restrictions over COVID-19. It consists of four stages. All restrictions are planned to be lifted by the end of June, if the situation allows it.
That is, the majority of people in Foggy Albion will be vaccinated or have antibodies as early as summer. It was in the background of this news that the British currency accelerated its growth earlier this week.
And of course in Europe the situation with mass vaccination does not look so optimistic. The best proof of this is the chart of EUR/USD, which we urge everybody to watch again, on the timeframe D1.
Our forecast remains the same. In 2021, we should see a breakdown of the 1.50 level in the Pound/Dollar pair.

11.00 EU Business Climate Index for February
14.30 US Annual Q4 GDP data
14.30 US initial jobless claims weekly
14.30 US Durable Goods Orders for January

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Bitcoin reached a new all-time high above $58,000 over the weekend. Monday and Tuesday were in contrast a cold shower for it, with the price dipping below $45,000 per BTC. The market is now resembling a rollercoaster ride, with the price flying in both directions, taking a huge amount of stops off traders and investors.

BTC

Last week’s milestone was not just about breaking the $50,000 level. It was the simultaneous rise in capitalisation of the first cryptocurrency above USD 1 trillion. Now Bitcoin has a second target of $2 trillion in addition to the $100,000 target.
A bitcoin price of $50,000 could somehow survive the regulators. So, what do you think, 30-40-50-70, who cares? But the rise in capitalization to $1 trillion is effectively a verdict on today’s financial system. There is a new asset class that does not depend on governments and central banks. It cannot be taken under control, its issuance cannot be inflated by issuing unsecured money, etc. And, worst of all, the more the new reality reaches investors, the faster Bitcoin begins to grow.

What should regulators do with all this?

The battle of evil against good has already been lost. The good (Bitcoin) has won. However, the losing army still has reserves and is desperately fighting back, trying to postpone the inevitable.
Earlier this week, the owners of the old financial system went all-in. It’s unclear what kind of leverage Elon Musk had to take, but he suddenly announced that bitcoin was overvalued. Bill Gates immediately appeared, saying that he did not own Bitcoin, but investors should be extremely careful with them.
And the cherry on the cake, of course, was a statement by US Treasury Chief Janet Yellen, who expressed the view on Monday that Bitcoin was a speculative asset.
How was Bitcoin supposed to react to the firing of all guns at it? That’s right, the first cryptocurrency falls on panic sell-offs. Most of them are exits from speculators closing their long positions with leverage on margin calls.
Looking at what is going on, the next version that no longer seems absurd comes to mind. Perhaps the world’ powerful simply did not have time to buy Bitcoins at good prices. And now they’re scapegoating the first cryptocurrency, giving “knowledgeable players” a chance to buy good volume during the panic.
If in the next 5-10 days we see Bitcoin price above $60000 per 1 BTC, then our version will turn from absurd into absolutely logical.

02.00 Reserve Bank of New Zealand interest rate decision
08.00 Germany’s Q4 GDP
16.00 New home sales in the US for January

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

The third part of our article could be called “Sneaky markets”. Today we are going to talk about them. What is their sneakiness? And why do “smart money” take profits away from the average investor time after time.

S&P 500

A brief review of the previous series. In our opinion, there is no bubble yet in the S&P 500 market, with P/E ratio =40 (with historical average P/E =16). As one should pay attention not to average P/E but to bond yields. Which are alternatives to equity investments. And which show yields well below the historical average of around 0%-1.5%.
The fact is that smart money is always ahead of the curve. And that’s not just a claim. It has a rigorous proof base.
For example, take a typical bear market. More often than not, it starts when the economy starts to fall. The statistics for the last 120 years, beginning in 1900, are very telling. According to it, on average bear markets have shown their lows six months before the economy begins to rise.
So, let us imagine the situation. The economy is going down, markets are going down, wages are going down, unemployment is going up, the press and television are full of negativity. At the same time, at a certain point, stocks start to rise. So, with all this negativity, supply exceeds demand. Average investors continue to sell shares at the bottom of the market, thinking that things will get worse. And the smart money buys those stocks.
Six months later, the economy starts to pick up. Investors rush to buy shares again. But suddenly it turns out that they have already risen an average of 15%-30% from their lows.

The same thing happens at the end of major bull markets

The economy is growing (in this situation, starting to recover from the pandemic), there is a lot of money in the market, and the stock market is growing. Average investors are buying more and more stocks. But, at some point in time, despite everything looking good, the “smart money” starts buying bonds and selling stocks at the very peaks to average investors.
That’s how it was 100 years ago, that’s how it is now and that’s how it will be 100 years from now. The “smart money” will always play ahead. And no indicators, talking heads on TV or various gurus taking money for seminars will help you to be “better than the market”. Unless you start thinking for yourself, the way the “smart money” thinks.

14.30 US Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago National Activity Index for January
14.45 Address by ECB Governor Christine Lagarde

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Yesterday we invited you to speculate for yourself whether there is a bubble in the US market or not. Today, we are going to give you our opinion. To get the right answer, you first have to ask the right question. Our question is: “Stocks are expensive compared to what, exactly”?

S&P 500

The average P/E (price to earnings) value for the S&P 500 index over the last 100 years is 16. The P/E value is now around 40. It looks like a bubble. But let’s ask another valid question. Why exactly was the average value of the S&P 500 previously around 16?
The fact is that for 95% of the 20th century, interest rates in the US were much higher than they are today. Which meant that investors were interested in putting money in the bank or buying treasuires, getting virtually risk-free 3%-7% per annum.
Today the situation is different. Yields on bank deposits and short-term trades are 0%-1% per annum. Against this background, P/E = 40 means that companies generate earnings per share of 2.5% p.a. And this is significantly higher and more interesting to investors than the interest rate on bonds.

Let us imagine that the P/E for the S&P 500 index would now be 20. Which would mean companies’ earnings per share of 5% per annum. What would investors do? They would rush out in droves to buy American stocks. What would happen to American stocks? They would immediately jump in value. For example, by 2 times. In that case the P/E-value would become 40. Does that sound familiar? But that’s exactly what we have in the market right now.
So the P/E = 40, which is 2.5 times the average, looks like a bubble only without zero interest rates.
We have the following. The market may fall, it may rise, but it does not look overbought from the perspective of an investor who chooses whether to invest free money in bonds or in stocks.

What could drastically change the situation?

Inflation in the US could surge by the middle of the year. We have been going into detail about why this will happen. Once restrictions are lifted, people will start to be active in spending money. And they are understandable. The population received a lot of money, and in the conditions of lockdowns they spent very little of it.
As a result, interest rates could start to rise. What happens when the 10-year Treasury yield exceeds 2%? Will it rise to 2.5% p.a.?
Investors will realise that there is a choice. Get 2.5% risk-free in bonds. Or risk 2.5% in equities, as measured by the S&P 500. Logically, a massive sell-off in equities and a transfer of money into bonds will begin. The P/E ratio should drop to, say, 25, giving a higher potential yield in equities of 4% compared to 2.5% in bonds. In which case, the market will come back into balance.
And what if the equity values don’t fall too much and the P/E remains around 40? In that case, we can state that a real bubble has burst in the stocks of the S&P 500 index, which will implode at any time.

Is it really that simple?

No, it’s not that simple. The market is insidious and cunning. The last two paragraphs are the logic of the average investor. But the average investor gets burned by the market all the time.

01.30 Australian retail sales for January
09.30 German Composite PMI for February
10.00 EU Composite Business Activity Index for February
10.30 UK PMI for February

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

The 12-year rise in the US stock market is increasingly scaring investors. And more and more analysts are calling the situation a bubble. However, there are just as many who do not see a bubble. There is a main fundamental factor which for some reason most analysts either forget or do not think about at all.

S&P 500

– 80% of companies now going public are unprofitable. That hasn’t happened in over 20 years, not since the dot-com crash.

– Non-residents bought $400 billion worth of U.S. stocks last year. The previous high was $200 billion and was recorded in 2007, just before the last financial crisis in 2008

– The broader index, which includes 2,000 US small-cap companies, is now almost 40% above its 200-day simple moving average. This has never been seen before in history.
– Fund managers have less than 4% cash on hand, with the rest already invested in assets

– The level of leveraged funds (leveraged trading), for US equities will soon approach $1 trillion
– VIX Fear Index is at multi-year lows

What can all this lead to? If there is a massive sell-off in equities, then leveraged buyers will be the first to suffer. They will close positions en masse, including on margin calls, pushing the price down even further. That makes sense. But it doesn’t answer the question, “Is there a bubble or not?”

01.30 Australian Unemployment Rate for January
13.30 Update on ECB Monetary Policy Meeting
14.30 US initial jobless claims for the week

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

It is what unfolded on Monday in the battle for the $50,000 per BTC level. There were two armies on the battlefield. One represented the future (bitcoin buyers). The second represented the past (sellers). In the first team there is a progressive part of society. The second represents the conservative establishment that runs the world today.

BTC

The short-term outcome of the battle was a draw. The bulls broke through the level of $50,000 per 1 BTC, but could not immediately build on their success, taking the next marks of $51,000 and $52,000.
And the medium-term outcome is a complete defeat of the forces of evil. After the breakthrough of the most important round level, a direct road to $100,000 per 1 BTC opens. It is the one that major players and analysts will now focus on.
Since last summer, we have explained in detail no less than 15 times why bitcoin is fundamentally undervalued. And why it will rise strongly sooner or later. The key here is “sooner or later”. As you know, it is impossible to foresee the timing of the start of a move in advance. The time has come and the movement started. During this time, the price went up 6 times from the levels of 8-9k for 1BTC.
Now analysts will unanimously start predicting again a value of $100,000, $200,000, $300,000 per BTC at the end of 2021. If that happens, great.
However, we continue to stick to our conservative forecast we made earlier this year. We believe bitcoin will grow 2-3 times in 2020. That means we expect its year-end price to be 58-87k per 1 BTC.
When the volleys of the guns subside, let’s break down in detail what changes for bitcoin after it breaks through the $50,000 level. Don’t forget to follow our newsletter.

08.00 UK consumer price index for January
14.30 Canadian January Consumer Price Index
14.30 US Retail Sales in January
20.00 US Federal Open Market Committee Meeting Minutes

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.