24.09.2019 – Daily report. The Ifo index provides a little hope for the stock market. Finally a slight plus again. The announced continuation of talks in the trade dispute between China and the USA was also positively received on the Frankfurt floor.
Slight plus in Frankfurt
Tough trading, but at least no complete standstill on the German stock exchange. By Tuesday midday, the DAX had achieved a minimal gain of 0.2 percent to 12,365 points. The reason for this was the Ifo index – the DAX rose slightly after its presentation, but the euro hardly reacted.
Pause in the German downturn
The Business Climate Index provided a weak ray of hope in terms of fear of recession: it recovered somewhat in September and climbed to 94.6 points. After five consecutive declines, this was also the time: in the previous month, the indicator had been at 94.3 points, its lowest level since November 2012. The downturn is taking a break,” commented Ifo CEO Clemens Fuest. As always, you can find all the data here: Market Mover
New hope in the trade dispute
There was positive news in the ongoing China/USA customs dispute. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced the resumption of talks with the Chinese side in two weeks’ time. The Chinese negotiator, Vice President Liu He, will travel to Washington at the beginning of October.
Another rather bizarre footnote, which indicates that there may be cracks in the USA team: According to CNBC, US President Donald Trump was visibly surprised by his finance minister on Monday. Mnuchin said during a meeting at the United Nations with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that he himself had asked the Chinese to cancel the planned visits to American farmers. We think: If the US Negotiating Commission is reappointed or serious disagreements with the President come to light, Wall Street will resent this – the stock market players in global trade are hanging on every half-sentence from the Chinese and American leadership.
Moderate profits in Asia
Despite all this, Asian brokers have tended to take a positive view of the latest news: In China, the CSI-300 rose by a moderate 0.3 percent to 3,901 points. In Tokyo, the Nikkei rose moderately by 0.1 percent to 22,099 points.
Wait and see in New York
Meanwhile, Wall Street is sceptical: the Dow Jones Industrial rose by 0.1 percent to 26,950 points the previous evening. The S&P 500 hardly closed measurably down at 2,992 points. And the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.1 per cent to 7,819 points.
New turnaround in Brexit
There is still one comment for traders in the foreign exchange market: The Supreme Court in Great Britain has just inflicted a bitter defeat on Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It was therefore illegal to send Parliament on forced leave. The British pound rose immediately. The verdict is likely to fuel the volatility in the British pound again – for new volts of the Brexit inhibitors in parliament are likely to be imminent. And a no deal brexit is now becoming more difficult.
This is what the day brings
In the USA the Case-Shiller house price index will be announced at 3:00pm.
At 4:00pm the consumer confidence of the Conference Board follows.
At 10:30pm the API crude oil stock data will run over the ticker.
The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!
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