After Friday’s rally, the euro/dollar pair is correcting for the second day amidst the news of Chinese duties on a number of goods from the U.S. The price is at the opening level of last week, which means that bulls and bears are trying to pull the rope unsuccessfully. Sellers are morally helped by the large positive swap they get while holding their shorts.
It should be noted that the situation resembles a compressed spring. And its straightening should be expected not because of low volatility, but because of the end of the holiday season and the return to the market of investors and traders. All the most interesting things will begin in early September.
Gold continues the strong trend of the last three months. Monday was marked by a gap after the weekend, which closed the same day. Stops were collected on both sides and, quite naturally, on Tuesday the growth continued. The situation is aggravated by the growing tension in the Middle East, after the Israeli Defense Forces strikes on Hezbollah facilities in Lebanon.
Trump’s agreement with China on trade duties could turn the situation around, but when that happens, the issue is still open. So far, it seems that nothing can stop the trend. The technical picture confirms the fundamental, we see on the chart that simple moving averages in 20, 50 and 200 days are lined up in an ideal ratio for the trend market.
Today the data on German GDP for the second quarter was released. Growth in annual terms was equal to 0.4% forecasted by experts. Against the background of the slowdown in the global economy due to the ongoing trade wars, this is a good indicator. Especially considering the drop in demand for German products from Chinese producers.
Yesterday’s break-up of the 200-day moving average turned out to be once again false. The price has returned today. In the next few days we can expect a way out of the August corridor in one direction or another.
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