09.10.2023 – Following the Hamas attack on Israel, the price of oil jumps upward. An escalation is likely to push the price further north.
Brent – here the four-hour chart – had recently shaken traders strongly. The days before the Hamas attack had brought a bitter crash. Commodity strategists at Goldman Sachs identified three main reasons for this. First, overvaluation – the market was simply overbought. Secondly, fears of recession: In the wake of rising interest rates, the weak weekly gasoline report of the U.S. Energy Information Agency caused sell-offs. Third, automatic selling in the wake of triggered stop-loss marks. Either way, the cards are being reshuffled.
First, Israel is likely to raze Gaza to the ground in Operation Iron Swords. There is likely to be no mercy for Islamic fascists who kidnap and massacre defenseless women and children – as some 260 teens and tweens were executed in southern Israel at a techno festival in Kibbutz Re’im.
And the matter could escalate further: For as the Wall Street Journal reports, citing high-ranking Hamas and Hezbollah cadres, Iran collaborated on the attack for several weeks. Last Monday, Revolutionary Guards in Beirut are said to have given the “go”. Tehran has been supplying missiles and other weapons for years anyway.
That Iran dares to do this is hardly surprising: After all, there is a president in the White House whose weakness invites every enemy. Months ago, we already pointed out the possible collateral damage of the completely botched withdrawal of the U.S. army from Afghanistan. First the Ukraine war, now Israel, soon perhaps a Chinese invasion of Taiwan – it would be logical. Already months ago “Newsweek” reported that US machine guns were delivered to Gaza by the Taliban.
What is America doing?
The question is whether Israel will now attack Iran – then the oil price should hiss northward, price target unclear. 150, 200 dollars, who knows. Especially if the U.S. were to intervene on Israel’s side. But we do not believe in that. Normally, the kidnapping and murder of Americans by Hamas would already be a reason for war – Ronald Reagan and Donald Trump would probably have struck long ago. But Joe Biden is probably playing Jimmy Carter. We consider the redeployment of the 6th Fleet to be nothing more than a threat signal.
Which, of course, is likely to encourage the radical Islamists. It is quite possible that Hezbollah will attack from Lebanon, or even Iran directly. Then the Jewish state could possibly respond nuclear. Conversely, the situation may calm down again if the conflict does not escalate. Whatever the case, the situation on the oil market is explosive – and not only there. So keep an eye on the real-time news. Bernstein Bank keeps you up to date.
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