24.02.2022 –So now it’s on, the invasion of Ukraine. As predicted, the world stock markets are plummeting. First and foremost the Moscow RTS index and the rouble. Traders should now keep a cool head. In view of the Western kowtowing and because of the likely quick surrender of Ukraine, the world could quickly return to business as usual.
Meanwhile, according to the Moscow Times, the Defence Ministry in Moscow reported that the Ukrainian army was leaving its positions in droves. In the reports we are seeing, there is no sign of the Ukrainian army fighting back, only Russian tanks rolling towards Kiev – and a mass exodus. The current large-scale attack indicates that Russia will occupy and demilitarise the whole of Ukraine – not only the Donbass could become a buffer state against NATO. Kiev gets no real help from the West: Berlin lights up the Brandenburg Gate in yellow and blue. The Baltics and the USA have supplied weapons. That’s probably it.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
It is doubtful whether Western sanctions will be effective against a country that has no debts and is sitting on considerable foreign currency reserves. Sooner rather than later, Moscow is likely to sell dollars against the rouble, which has fallen to a new record low, in order to stabilise domestic prices. In this respect, the gap that has just been torn in USDRUB is likely to be closed soon. Cynically, one has to say: “Buy Russia” is imminent. This is not only our view, but also that of the blog AdventuresInCapitalism.com, for example. So courageous traders are going against the tide – especially, but not only, with Russian assets, but with all dived indices.
This West is no opponent
In fact, the Kremlin’s calculation is likely to work. The Russian president has correctly analysed the rampant green-left rot of the West – pacifism above all, gender gaga, hostility to its own culture. The Pentagon’s failure in Afghanistan, the weakness of the US president. Germany’s years of pandering to Moscow through Nord Stream 2, the betrayal of Ukraine that went along with it. A chancellor who, by shutting down nuclear power plants, has handed Germany over to energy supplier Russia.
So watch out for the imminent accumulation of appeasing statements in the West – you have to weigh things up and differentiate, Russian interests are very important, the German economy has been hit, sanctions only affect the people, let’s not have a Third World War. At the latest, the increased appeasement is the signal to get back on track.
Home to the Tsarist Empire
And now comes the big but: things will get exciting if, contrary to expectations, the West does impose severe sanctions that bring Russia to its knees. Or if Putin continues militarily. In his delusional speech to the nation, he made it clear that for him Ukraine has belonged to Russia for centuries – one people. Of course, he left unmentioned the horrific murder of millions of Ukrainians by Russian communists in the Holodomor. He also spoke of the former Grand Duchy of Lithuania-Russia. What we actually know as Poland-Lithuania. How do you think NATO would react if the Baltic States were attacked?
Danger for Taiwan
And things will really heat up if China now annexes Taiwan – the chances are good, because there is a weakling in the White House. In all these cases, of course, the presumed rebound shifts way back – and the entry level down. These are potential fronts to keep an eye on in real-time news. Bernstein Bank stays on the ball for you!
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