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Today about how Tesla’s new business model will finally kill oil workers’ hopes for a brighter future.
Oil.WTI
The mass adoption of electric cars will happen in a few years, when their price will be comparable to counterparts with an internal combustion engine. People living in their own homes will not need to be persuaded of anything. The car owner comes home from work, plugs his car in and goes to rest.
But what should people living in megalopolises do? Drive around the neighbourhood looking for a free charger? Then wait until the car is charged, then drive around again, looking for a parking space? That’s not much of a case. That’s why oil companies are hoping that the demand for petrol and diesel cars will continue in big cities for a long time to come, increasing the demand for petroleum products.
We think Tesla and Elon Musk personally see the situation differently. The challenge is for the inhabitants of metropolitan areas to give up most personal cars altogether. Nowadays, an average American family spends about $1,500 per month to buy and maintain 2 cars. Thus to inhabitants of megacities the possession of the car creates a lot of problems. It is enough that they have to park when they come to work, and then repeat this quest when they come to their flat.
In about 10 years, unmanned cars will be allowed in cities. And it will be the Tesla cars that will occupy this niche first. The company’s business model will change from selling cars to individuals, to using its cars as taxis.
The cost of delivery from A to B will drop by a further 2-3 times compared to even the low current price of Uber. What will the price be reduced by? No driver, no expensive maintenance, cheaper fuel (electricity), and the ability to operate the vehicle 23 hours a day, 7 days a week. Once or twice a day, Tesla drones will return to their hubs with thousands of charges. And after 30-60 minutes, they will be on the road again.
Such a business model would remove the need to own a car for 1-2 billion inhabitants of megacities. Using an unmanned taxi will be many times more efficient, in terms of economy, than owning your own car. And it will be the last straw, reducing the demand for oil.
What awaits us today?
05.30 Industrial production in Japan for October
11.00 EU industrial production in October
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