While the representatives of OPEC+ countries are holding the final agreements for the upcoming meeting (we recently talked about the nuances and disagreements among member countries), let’s look at the oil market globally.
Let us make the following assumption, which will be displeased by so many supporters of black gold. It is possible that the previous year, 2019, showed the maximum historical volume of demand for oil. We will never see this level again. In other words, the demand for oil will be declining.
How is this even possible?
In 2020, demand for oil collapsed in all regions of the world without exception. Black gold producers do not expect demand to recover in 2021. On the other hand, they have high hopes for 2022. On the one hand, there are plans to end the COVID-19 pandemic due to widespread vaccination. On the other hand, it is expected that the deferred demand for a number of services, currently limited due to coronavirus, will increase sharply. For example, travel, business conferences, etc.
But are the oil producers right? We do not think so. Nobody knows if the epidemic will really be halted in 2022 or if its impact on our lives will only decrease. Even in developed countries, up to 30%-40% of the population does not plan to be vaccinated. And in those same countries in Africa, the majority of the population will not have access to vaccine because of problems with the local health system.
Will the demand for travel regain? Partly yes, but not completely, for one trivial reason. The severe economic crisis will not return middle-class income to its previous level of consumption for several more years. Namely, the middle class was the main engine in the tourism industry.
Well, with conferences in general, everything is sad. Large corporations with the funds to hold them were surprised to find that there was no need to gather hundreds and thousands of employees from dozens of countries in Bangkok or London. Everything can be perfectly organised in an online format. And medium-sized companies simply will not have a budget for such events in the near future.
What awaits us today?
01.30 Retail sales in Australia for October
14.30 Number of new jobs in non-US agricultural sector for November
14.30 US unemployment rate for November
14.30 Change in the number of employees in Canada for November
14.30 Unemployment rate in Canada for November
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