16.03.2022 – Traders, pay attention: The next few days will be decisive. Experts assume that Russia will lose the war. In case of a ceasefire under Ukrainian victory sign or even an expulsion of the Russian army, a mega bull market is in the offing. Or else a Nero order from Vladimir Putin.
Up or down – if Russia really loses, either a celebration of joy or a world conflagration is possible. For as soon as Putin realizes that his plan for the reconstruction of a Greater Russian Empire has failed, anything would be possible for him. If you want to know which thinkers have influenced the Russian president, you should read up on Alexander Denikin (general with the Whites in the Civil War) and Alexander Dugin (co-founder of the now banned National Bolshevik Party). In the event of a poison gas attack or a nuclear strike by Russia, as well as a revenge attack on a NATO country like Poland, the major indices are likely to easily plunge by double digits in one day. And the nice little DAX relief rally of the past few days (target: 200-day line) in the hope of a settlement of the conflict is history.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
And with that, we turn to the forecasts mentioned at the beginning. The always readable “Tichy’s insight” first quoted General Waldemar Skrzypczak, former head of the Polish land forces. He told the news magazine “wPolityce” that the Russians had already lost the war. Their army was demoralized, and out of despair they were killing civilians. The Russians bombed Kiev to break the Ukrainians’ will to defend themselves – they had “gone over to terror warfare” and wanted to bomb Ukrainian President Volodimir Zelensky to the negotiating table.
Ukraine counteroffensive
To the west of Mikolayiv in southern Ukraine, the Ukrainians had crushed a combat group of the Russian army. The same had happened in the northeast south of Ochtyrka. The Russians would have run out of operational reserves. Syrian mercenaries had no fighting power; Russia could not count on the Belarusian army – then there would be a threat of an uprising in Belarus. Furthermore, Belarusian soldiers could defect to the Ukrainians.
China probably changes sides
The magazine also refers to China. Hu Wie, head of the “Central Institute of History and Culture”, has analyzed that Moscow is not able to achieve its strategic goals in Ukraine. The blitzkrieg had failed. Moscow’s only option now is peace negotiations. The geostrategic consequences: The conflict could escalate, and perhaps the West would intervene after all. Moreover, Russia does not have sufficient means to control Ukraine militarily. The sense of defeat could lead to Russia’s destabilization. The U.S., on the other hand, had regained its leadership position in the Western world. The strength of the West is increasing overall. Thus, Hu Wei now sees the danger that China could end up isolating itself economically (and politically) if it were to tie itself too closely to Russia.
Our conclusion: If all this is true, we are in for hot days. Mega bull market, if the Russian leadership agrees to a compromise and the guns stay silent. Or super bearish if Moscow escalates. Bernstein Bank keeps an eye on the situation for you!
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