25.02.2022 – What a trading day yesterday: Wall Street turned on its heels and raced from a deep minus to a plus. Which may have to do with the realization that Ukraine is lost and Russia doesn’t really need to fear tough sanctions. And with short covering.
The turnaround in high-tech stocks was particularly impressive, with the Nasdaq 100 first sliding about 4 percent to close with a gain of just over 3 percent. Wonderful times for traders who were right. There should be more to come, as the MACD is still in oversold territory, see below. In addition, the 50-day line continues to tempt. According to the blog SpotGamma, many large addresses had sold puts and bought calls – and stocks served as a hedge for options traders. Nomura also sees yesterday’s turnaround as a result of repositioning in the options market.
Source: Bernstein Bank GmbH
Here is already the appeasement
According to the financial blog ZeroHedge, the stock market reacted yesterday to Joe Biden’s speech, in which tough sanctions against Russia did not appear at all. Told you so. Now the most brilliant politicians of all time are lashing out over sanctions. Surprise: Germany apparently opposes Russia’s exclusion from the SWIFT payment system. And on the best TV ever, SPD grandee Klaus von Dohnany reminded us that Germany would be wiped out if the NATO alliance case was triggered. There you go, this courageous attitude will continue to spread among our elite: Bye-bye Baltics – if Russia invades you, you’re on your own.
Franconia as a safe haven
So what’s next? George Saravellos, forex strategist at Deutsche Bank, referred of course to the Ukraine crisis: Everything depends on the sanctions imposed by the West. Since Switzerland has so far refused to comply, the franc could become a safe haven. There is also the question of gas prices, which poses risks for the euro.
Soon it will probably be over
We assume that the weapons in Ukraine will soon be silent and a pro-Russian government will be installed. This article reveals Vladimir Putin’s world of thought: Article by Vladimir Putin ”On the Historical Unity of Russians and Ukrainians“ • President of Russia (kremlin.ru) The quite densely researched essay portrays Ukraine – Malorossia, Little Russia – for centuries as inseparably connected with Velikyrosia – Great Russia. Putin considers a separate Ukrainian national consciousness an artificial product of right-wing radicals. And here is the London School of Economics’ replica: “There is no Ukraine”: Fact-Checking the Kremlin’s Version of Ukrainian History | LSE International History
As usual, the Kremlin undercuts the historical trauma of the Holodomor – Putin deals with it with the aside that it was a famine that affected everyone. But this deliberately induced horror in the early thirties was – apart from previously existing independence efforts of the Cossacks anyway – THE event for the formation of a Ukrainian national consciousness par excellence. RUSSIAN communists murdered millions of people, also to eliminate the Ukrainian national movement. You can read about the Holodomor here: Millionen tote Ukrainer: Der Holodomor – reitschuster.de – little is reported about this in German schools, media and universities, because one left-wing crow pecks no eye out of the other.
Next stop Vilnius?
By the way, in the article Putin actually mentions a Grand Duchy of Russia-Lithuania, which broke up only when the Catholic faith replaced the Orthodox one. And only after that, Poland-Lithuania came into being. So: maybe next it’s the turn of the Baltic States with a small invasion. Otherwise, we assume that the dust will settle on the Ukraine issue for the time being. And that investors will use the liquidity gained in the sell-off for a further rebound. But as mentioned before: Anything is possible here and the opposite of everything. Especially since many traders prefer to take time out before the weekend. Bernstein Bank keeps an eye on the situation for you!
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