Ten days ago, the first cryptocurrency was in hibernation. The narrow corridor, about 10%, was held for 2 months. The trading volumes on futures exchanges were dropping all the time. And suddenly, there was talk again from all sides that soon the BTC price will reach 15-20 thousand dollars.
And that’s just the immediate future. And if it is a question of the next 2-5 years, the figures in 50-100-300 and even 500 thousand dollars for 1 bitcoin are called. Where did all this hype come from?
Bitcoin peaked at $20,000 2.5 years ago. That’s enough time for all speculative players to sell the cryptocurrency. Someone with profit, someone with loss. Today, quite different buyers have come to the market.
For example, the investment firm Grayscale. The company has regulatory permission to buy cryptourrencies and store them for its clients. In the meantime, it has bought and keeps BTCs worth over $4 billion on cold wallets. The investment flow increases every quarter. And for the last 11 days (the data were presented a week ago), the inflow of new money to BTC was 782 million dollars.
It seems that it is not so much, in fact it is huge money. The fact is that Grayscale investors do not sell BTC. They buy it and keep it. The investment horizon can be decades. In this case, you can’t really buy all issued 18 million BTCs on the market.
According to a study of analysts, about 3.5 million BTC is lost forever. And about 10 million BTC have not moved from their wallets over the past year. That is, there are only about 5 million BTCs on the free market, which can be bought. At the rate of exchange today, it is about $58 billion.
It turns out that only Grayscale has taken 1.5% of free BTC supply from the market in 11 days. This money will not come on sale very soon. And now the question. How many such firms and banks that do not advertise their activities? At some point in time, a physical deficit of BTC may start on the market, just like the deficit of physical gold. Then the consequences will be unpredictable.
We can really see very sharp movements of Bitcoin. And of course, this whole story is directly supported by the huge depreciation of the US dollar against all real and even virtual assets.
What’s waiting for us today?
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