Will the dollar continue to appreciate?

By 21/06/2021News
morning-news

Gold  1772,155
(+0,58%)

EURUSD   1,1862
(-0,05%)

DJIA  32981,50
(-0,78%)

OIL.WTI  71,635
(+17,22%)

DAX   15427
(+1,62%)

Three days have passed since the announcement of the results of the Fed meeting. During this time the US dollar has risen sharply against all currencies. The main idea is that the Fed will have to raise rates as early as 2023. The big question is how long this upward trend will last.


DXY

DXY

If one thinks that the growth of the dollar means weakness in other currencies, especially in emerging markets, this is not the case. The US dollar has primarily risen against raw materials and precious metals. In other words, it has started to collapse in their prices.
Is the bubble collapsing in comodities or is this just the correction that everyone has been waiting for? Indeed, speculators have really jacked up their prices in recent months. After all, the real value has not been formed by supply and demand for a long time now. Yes, these factors certainly affect the market, but with a large time lag. But the market is very quickly influenced by the positions of the big players in futures contracts. It is the futures that move the price.
So the natural desire to lock in big profits + a huge number of leveraged positions, led to a sharp fall in the price of the commodity. Which dragged down currencies and then stock markets, including the US.
However, if you look at the Euro/Dollar pair, you can see that so far nothing terrible has happened. The price is approximately in the middle of the annual corridor. And only a break-down of the level of 1.16 might set a new long-term trend. This level is still 2.5 figures away. In case it penetrates that level, it might turn out to be a bear trap.
The main thing is that thanks to the Fed, the volatility that our traders have been waiting for is back on the market.

11.00 EU Business Climate Index for June
16.30 Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas Industrial Activity Index for June


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