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morning-news

New targets for the dollar: how much longer to rise?

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Gold 1798,505
(+0,58%)

EURUSD 1,1223
(+0,15%)

DJIA 35303,50
(-1,32%)

OIL.WTI 75,855
(-2,76%)

DAX 15920,45
(+0,02%)

The US dollar rose against a basket of currencies for the fifth week in a row. Another technical target has been reached on the dollar index chart. What is happening on the fundamentals and will the US currency continue to strengthen?


DXY

DXY

Wednesday’s trading session was a very busy one for the dollar. On the eve of the long Thanksgiving weekend the US released unemployment claims, an update on Q3 GDP, personal consumption expenditure and FOMC minutes.
All in all, it was a good day! The first thing that shocked the market was the news that during the reporting week the number of jobless claims fell to a 52-year low. There were 199 thousand of applications against 270 thousand a week before and 260 thousand forecasted. And that’s after it exceeded 6 million at the start of the pandemic. As you can see, the labour market is doing quite well.
The GDP data was slightly above the initial estimate, showing a 2.1% growth in the third quarter against the expected 2.2%.
But the most interesting thing was the FOMC minutes. It was clear from the document that the central bankers are prepared to go ahead with an earlier unwinding of quantitative easing. They are also prepared to start raising rates earlier if inflation accelerates and the economic recovery is robust enough.
And what do we see? Economic reports this month are encouraging, inflation is not. The Fed is ready to accelerate. So a rate hike is on the way! In 2022 the market expects three rounds of hikes.
Expectations of an earlier monetary policy tightening were confirmed yesterday. And news of Jerome Powell’s term extension as Fed head gave confidence that the central bank will continue on its intended course.
As a result, the dollar index reached a strong mirror resistance level at 96.90. Technically, the fate of American currency now will depend on the possibility of breakdown and fixing above this boundary.
If we see a true breakdown, the next target for growth will be in the region of 99.00. And it is quite achievable, if expectations of a hawkish position of FRS will remain in the market.
An alternative scenario would be a local correction – a pullback to 95.00, but for now it looks unlikely.

01.30 Australian retail sales for October
09.00 Address by ECB President Christine Lagarde


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

Where to catch gold?

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Gold 1793,345
(+0,29%)

EURUSD 1,1214
(+0,12%)

DJIA 35887,50
(+0,35%)

OIL.WTI 78,415
(+0,13%)

DAX 15901,50
(+0,01%)

Gold has remained under pressure since last trading week. During that time the price of the precious metal has lost more than 4%. In this review we look at the key drivers for the decline and determine how low the XAU/USD could fall.


XAU/USD

XAUUSD

The main catalyst for the decline in gold remains the rise in the US dollar. It is well known about the inverse correlation of these assets.
In turn, the US currency is benefiting from expectations that the US Federal Reserve may move to raise interest rates earlier. And this could be as soon as the first half of 2022.
Data from November shows that the recovery of the American economy looks reasonably robust. The labour market is growing and so are retail sales. Inflation, which should be dealt with by tightening monetary policy, is shamelessly breaking all records. This, in turn, is shaping market expectations.
On the other hand, gold, which is in demand as a shelter asset, should seem to react to fears about a new wave of coronavirus in Europe. But, the rising dollar strongly counteracts this, all the while putting pressure on the XAU/USD.
It is worth noting that as early as Thursday, the United States is heading out for an extended weekend. And while Americans will be celebrating Thanksgiving, things might calm down a bit.
Nevertheless, the targets and possible depth of the XAU/USD fall are best determined from a technical analysis perspective.
On the daily chart, a mirror support level can already be seen at the lows of Tuesday’s trading session, near the price of 1780. If it never breaks through with a consolidation below, gold could finally move into a recovery.
If we see a true break-down of the support at 1780, the next levels for the weakening of the XAU/USD will be at 1760 and below, around the September lows at 1716$/oz.

08.00 German GDP for the third quarter
13.30 Publication of ECB meeting minutes


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

EUR/USD below 1.1300. How long will the price fall?

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Gold 1792,325
(+0,20%)

EURUSD 1,1243
(-0,05%)

DJIA 35709
(-0,01%)

OIL.WTI 78,66
(+0,22%)

DAX 15979,95
(-0,08%)

The EUR/USD has fallen below 1.1300 for the first time in sixteen months and does not seem set to stop. How low can the euro go now and what is pushing it down?


EUR/USD

The US dollar is strengthening rapidly against a basket of currencies for the fifth week in a row. Risk aversion, expectations of a rate hike and rising inflation are all catalysts for growth.
This week the US currency is supported by the news that Jerome Powell is to remain in office for a second term as the Fed Chairman and hence, we can expect a tightening of the monetary policy in 2022.
The EUR remains under pressure against USD as Head of ECB Christine Lagarde said last week that the central bank will not rush to implement tough inflation-targeting measures. Therefore, do not count on a rate hike just yet.
This week the focus is on the threat of a slowdown in economic growth in European countries due to a new wave of pandemics and possible lockdowns.
The euro reacted on Tuesday with a local rise on the leading economic PMIs, which came in better than expected in October. However, the currency is unlikely to hold that position as it is already becoming clear that business activity will slow down in December.
Restrictions associated with a new pandemic wave will exacerbate an already difficult supply chain and inflation problems.
Against this background, how low can the EUR/USD fall? On the weekly chart the nearest support is looming around 1.1140. If it does not stop the fall, the pair may fly lower. The target is set to be 1.09-1.10. However, it is not worth of taking it so low, we should observe.
It is also worth mentioning that Wednesday will be a very saturated news flow, which might slow down or even speed up the USD growth against a basket of currencies, including the Euro. This is followed by a long Thanksgiving weekend in USA.
US dollar momentum might be boosted by consumer spending data, GDP report and publication of FOMC minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Not to mention the weekly U.S. initial jobless claims report, which probably isn’t much to look at after it came close to its pre-crisis level of around 260K.
The IFO index from Germany (an important leading index for evaluating the outlook for Europe’s biggest economy) and Thursday’s ECB meeting minutes will also give a local boost to the euro in the coming days.
The reaction of the dollar and the euro to this news is likely to determine whether the support at 1.1140 on EUR/USD will hold or whether the pair will continue to fall.

14.30 US GDP for the third quarter
20.00 Publication of FOMC minutes


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

Oil has turned around. How low will WTI fall?

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Gold 1845,805
(-0,06%)

EURUSD 1,1275
(-0,11%)

DJIA 35659,50
(+0,33%)

OIL.WTI 75,795
(+0,23%)

DAX 16144,95
(+0,01%)

The double-top reversal pattern on the WTI chart has been triggered. The support for the pattern has been broken and the technical landmarks have been updated. Where to catch the price now and how long can the downtrend last?


OIL.WTI

OIL.WTI

The double top, which was assumed to be in the $79-$85/bbl range for WTI, is complete and its support has been broken. The price did not leave to draw a third top, and there are fundamental reasons for this.
The technical downside potential is now measured by the height of the reversal pattern. And if you consider the nearby support levels, the first target for easing will be near $73.
What’s next? Given the floating support line SMA200 (yellow indicator line), if it breaks the level of $73 per barrel, the WTI could fall to $70. There is also a strong technical and psychological level there.
This scenario suggests a reversal to a correction within a broad uptrend. A change in the long-term trend can be talked about when the SMA200 floating trend line and the horizontal support of $70/bbl are fixed below it. However, this is unlikely to happen.
Now let’s look at the fundamental background. One of the downside drivers remains the fear that US President Joe Biden’s administration might release oil from the country’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower prices. And this is an expansion of supply.
Meanwhile, demand concerns have emerged in the market. An increase in the number of new cases of coronavirus in eurozone countries could lead to a slowdown in economic recovery.
Austria was the first in Western Europe to impose a full lockdown amid a new wave of the pandemic. Germany, the eurozone’s largest economy, has also warned of a possible move towards full lockdown.
Such a prospect threatens to reduce energy demand and, along with expanding supply, put serious pressure on prices. Although this is now predominantly on the expectation factor.
In this case, on the facts the decline risks intensifying. The blocking situation is unlikely to be short-term and is likely to last for at least a month. During this time WTI could well go down to $70/bbl.

02.30 People’s Bank of China benchmark lending rate
16.00 US secondary housing market sales for October


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

Bitcoin drops below $60,000

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Gold 1860,955
(+0,12%)

EURUSD 1,1353
(-0,16%)

DJIA 35945,50
(+0,45%)

OIL.WTI 79,125
(+1,11%)

DAX 16239,50
(+0,01%)

For the fifth consecutive session, bitcoin traded in the red zone. On Thursday, the price dipped below $57,000 per coin, nearing the critical boundary. What’s next for the major cryptocurrency?


BTC/USD

BTCUSD

The October and November highs for the major cryptocurrency ended with the formation of bearish absorption candlestick patterns. The reversal signal came immediately. The only question is how deep the correction will be this time.
The very fact of bitcoin’s decline under the psychological mark of $60,000 is already alarming. However, technically, the daily chart clearly shows a mirror support level in the area of $57,000 per coin.
The key indicator of the main cryptocurrency’s direction now will be its behaviour relative to the current support. If it fails to consolidate below $57,000, there is a chance of a recovery to historical levels. And if the level fails to hold, the next benchmark for a deeper correction will be the area near $53,000.
Meanwhile, from a fundamental perspective, the backdrop for bitcoin remains favourable. Rising inflation is setting the stage for increased interest from both large capital and private investors. And launched futures ETFs give institutional investors a tool to invest in.
Nevertheless, BTC’s role as a hedging tool is still questionable. It is difficult to call it a full-fledged hedge asset because it, too, periodically declines during stock market downturns amid risk aversion. And it does not react immediately to news on inflation.
However, it could be argued that the cryptocurrency market is maturing, becoming less speculative thanks to the arrival of institutional capital. It also takes time for bitcoin to finally establish itself as a safe haven.
In the coming months, a new catalyst for growth could be the approval of spot bitcoin ETFs. While there are no significant developments on this issue yet, the market could see the first funds in 2022.
Against this background, it is worth focusing on the technical picture in the short term to assess the near-term prospects for BTC/USD in the still current bullish trend.

08.00 UK retail sales for October
14.30 Canadian retail sales in October


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

British inflation and rate hikes: to be or not to be?

By | News | No Comments

Gold 1865,545
(-0,08%)

EURUSD 1,1317
(-0,01%)

DJIA 35879,50
(+0,11%)

OIL.WTI 77,015
(-0,54%)

DAX 16251,50
(+0,01%)

On Wednesday it became known that UK inflation rose to ten-year highs. How have the prospects for a Bank of England rate hike changed and what will happen to sterling?


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

Britain’s consumer price index rose 4.2% year-on-year in October, up from a 3.1% increase in September. Meanwhile, the Reuters consensus forecast was for inflation to reach 3.9%.
The main reason for this surge was the rapid increase in energy bills. The regulatory cap on bills was abolished in September. As a result, gas prices for consumers have risen by 28.1% since the beginning of the year.
Meanwhile, suppliers have suffered from rising wholesale gas prices, forcing some energy companies to shut down. Consumers switching suppliers have received even higher tariffs, adding to inflationary pressures.
The Bank of England predicts that the consumer price index will rise to 5% in a few more months before going into recession. Its head Andrew Bailey on Monday once again voiced concerns about rising inflation.
Against this background, expectations that the Bank of England will raise interest rate in December rose to 100%, supporting the pound.
And before that, a strong UK labour market report on Tuesday improved market sentiment as employment worries were the key argument that kept the central bank from hiking the rate for the first time in November.
There is also a 30% chance of another hike in the refinancing rate in February with a final increase to 0.5%.
From a technical point of view GBP/USD has bounced up from a strong mirror support level near 1.3350, which creates prospects for its recovery. If this horizon holds, the nearest upside target will be the 1.3700 area.
An alternative scenario for the GBP/USD to break 1.3350 and consolidate below would be a fall into the area around 1.3000.

14.30 Initial jobless claims in the US
14.30 Philadelphia Fed (USA) Manufacturing Activity Index for November


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

How long will the US dollar rise?

By | News | No Comments

Gold 1853,665
(+0,18%)

EURUSD 1,1296
(-0,22%)

DJIA 36057,50
(-0,08%)

OIL.WTI 78,965
(-1,97%)

DAX 16234,50
(+0%)

The US dollar index has risen by almost a figure since the start of the week. First support came from expectations and then from actual strong retail sales data. Is this catalyst enough for a further rise in the US currency and what are the targets for a stronger DXY?


DXY

DXY

Tuesday’s report showed that US retail sales rose by 1.7% in October against an expected increase of 1.4%. September’s increase was revised up from 0.7% to 0.8%.
There were two reasons for this development. Firstly, Americans probably started to do their holiday shopping early, fearing that by the end of the year, due to supply chain disruptions, the shop shelves would empty. Secondly, inflation and attempts to avoid price increases may have had an impact.
The development of retail sales already indicates that the US economy is growing in the fourth quarter, although GDP data will be released late into the new year. In addition to the strong labour market report there is a picture of favourable conditions for an earlier interest rate increase by the Fed.
If the central bank had previously feared that a tightening of monetary policy would damage the fragile economic recovery, the data from October reduces the threat. Although the timing of the rate hike is not yet in question, the wait-and-see factor is working, which is causing the dollar to rise against a basket of currencies.
An additional driver supporting the dollar index could be the weakness of the single European currency. The ECB does not intend to take action to combat inflation in the near future. And a prolonged ultra-soft monetary policy will put pressure on the euro.
From the technical point of view there is also a favorable situation for the USD index. The price broke through the mirror resistance at 94.5 last week, and now it reached the next target at 96.0. A break above this target would open the way for the Dollar Index to 98.0.

08.00 UK consumer price index for October
11.00 Eurozone consumer price index for October


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

Oil has hit the ceiling. What is the probability of a reversal?

By | News | No Comments

Gold 1857,425
(-0,44%)

EURUSD 1,1458
(+0,10%)

DJIA 35997,50
(-0,03%)

OIL.WTI 80,395
(-0,46%)

DAX 16088
(+0,01%)

WTI crude oil has failed to consolidate above $85 a barrel, even though the price has approached this boundary three times since October. Moreover, a reversal pattern is emerging on the daily chart. What is the outlook for oil prices now from a fundamental and technical point of view?


OIL.WTI

OIL.WTI

A double-top pattern is emerging on the WTI daily timeframe in the $79-$85/bbl range. The trading week ended above $80, which now creates technical conditions for one of two scenarios.
The first is a breakout of the $79 a barrel level. Fixing under it would indicate that the reversal pattern has been triggered. The target for the decline, taking into account the potential of the model working out, will be in the area of $73-75.
The second is for WTI to return to the upside to draw a third top in a bearish reversal pattern. In this case, the price could recover to resistance in the $85 area and return from it to break support at $79 a barrel.
And what is happening on the fundamental backdrop in the meantime and are there any drivers for further declines in oil? Last week, the price fell on the back of a rising US dollar after a report on record inflation growth. Expectations that the Fed might accelerate its interest rate hike to curb rising price pressures have intensified in the market.
A second factor was rumours that President Joe Biden’s administration might release oil from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve to lower prices. Such a form of state intervention would ease supply shortage fears, which had previously pushed the price to multi-month highs.
Looking ahead to the coming weeks, US dollar dynamics and President Joe Biden’s decision on supply expansion could have an impact on oil futures dynamics. But new factors could also emerge, cumulatively affecting supply and demand dynamics.
It is pertinent to remember here that price includes everything and technical patterns reflect the processes that take place in the market. Against this background, a hint of a trend reversal is worth taking into account. The only question is whether it will occur after the second, or after the third top.

00.50 Japan Q3 GDP
03.00 China industrial production for October


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

Pound hits three-month low

By | News | No Comments

Gold 1858,685
(-0,16%)

EURUSD 1,1442
(-0,06%)

DJIA 35880,50
(+0,12%)

OIL.WTI 81,065
(-0,10%)

DAX 16074
(+0,01%)

GBP/USD fell below the 1.34 level on Thursday. Sterling has taken a third hit since the beginning of the month and is in danger of falling another two to four figures against the dollar if some support does not appear. What to expect in the coming days?


GBP/USD

GBPUSD

October optimism gave way to disappointment for the pound in November. Firstly, the Bank of England refused to hike the interest rate on the grounds that the labour market still needs to be monitored. Thereafter all attempts of GBP/USD to recover were offset by dollar rising against a basket of currencies in response to data on record high inflation in USA.
Sterling took a third hit today with weaker than expected UK GDP data for the third quarter. On an annualised basis, the economy grew 6.6% against a forecast of 6.8%. And quarter-on-quarter the recovery was 1.3% – the lowest rate since the start of 2021.
The main reason for the loss of momentum remains supply chain problems. These will not be resolved quickly. However, the IMF is still sticking to its forecast that the UK will be the country with the fastest GDP growth rate in 2021 amongst the G7 countries.
What is happening to the pound against this backdrop? GBP/USD has fallen below the 1.34 level. The weekly chart clearly shows that the mirror zone, which can serve as support, is in the area of 1.3350 – 1.3500. Now the price is approaching its lower boundary. This means that the key moment is about to come: an upward reversal or fixation below.
In case GBP/USD confirms this zone as a resistance, the next target for the fall should be considered in the area of 1.32 and then 1.30.
What can fundamentally support the GBP/USD? Perhaps the speculation of an interest rate hike by the Bank of England in December. There were such expectations last week. The only question is whether the data will be another reason for Monetary Policy Committee members to be cautious for fear of hurting the fragile recovery?
On the other hand, help could come from the Fed if Central Bank officials rush to dampen market hopes for an earlier interest rate hike by weakening the dollar with their statements.

17.00 US Job Openings from JOLTS for September.
17.00 Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan (USA) for November.


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

morning-news

US inflation sets new record

By | News | No Comments

Gold 1853,925
(+0,27%)

EURUSD 1,1477
(-0,02%)

DJIA 36023,50
(+0,19%)

OIL.WTI 81,555
(+0,38%)

DAX 16052,55
(+0,32%)

The year-on-year increase in the US consumer price index reached a 31-year high in October. Against this background, the dollar index rose, recovering losses from the previous three trading sessions. What are the prospects for the US currency in light of the lingering price pressure?


DXY

DXY

The monthly increase in consumer prices in October was 0.9%. Year-on-year inflation rose by 6.2%. The Fed’s reassurance that price pressures are about to ease is becoming less and less credible.
Why are prices soaring and why can’t they recover to the expected 2-2.5% as quickly as the central bank would like?
Firstly, because of higher energy and food prices. The former, including petrol prices, are rising because of supply concerns as OPEC+ is in no hurry to expand production yet.
Second, supply chains are still broken and will not recover quickly because of the pandemic. This is the scourge that affects exports and imports everywhere, causing a cascade of consequences. Here, as an illustration, it is appropriate to recall the semiconductor shortage that is affecting the automotive and electronics industries, leading to reduced supply and higher prices.
Thirdly, rising wages contribute to inflation. Employers are facing staff shortages and are raising wages to retain employees. And these costs are passed on to the consumer, raising the price.
This whole picture calls into question the short-term nature of high inflation. This tangle of interconnections cannot be quickly untangled. There is hope that somehow the Fed can help, namely by tightening monetary policy.
At the meeting on 3 November, the US central bank expectedly announced the start of the rollback of quantitative easing. As for the rate hike, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said that he would be cautious.
The unabated rise in inflation will probably push the FOMC members to speed up. Especially since the labour market situation appears to be improving according to the latest report. This was cited as the main obstacle to a decisive tightening of monetary policy.
Most likely it was the expectation of more decisive action from the Fed that pushed the dollar index to the November highs near 94.6 today. This boundary has not been crossed since September. However, if the price not only penetrates it but also moves higher in the near future, the next target for the USDX will be near 95.6.

01.30 Australian jobs change
08:00 UK Q3 GDP


Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.