News

06.12.2019 – Daily Report. Investors are also puzzling as to how the customs dispute between China and the USA will continue. In the morning, however, positive news arrived from Beijing. Previously, industry data from Germany had dampened the buying mood. Now the focus is on the job report from the USA in the afternoon.

Moderate plus for the DAX

The German stock market indicator recently remained up 0.2 percent at 13,083 points. The pre-market situation had looked better, but then the figures for German industrial production began to show up. Companies in Germany surprisingly cut back their production in October for the second month in a row. All in all, industry, construction and energy suppliers produced 1.7 percent less than in the previous month. Fears of a recession were circulating again immediately.

Good gesture from Beijing

Meanwhile, China sent out a signal of relief. On Friday morning, Reuters announced that Beijing had announced the lifting of some import duties on soy and pork from the USA. The decision is based on applications from individual US companies, the Ministry of Finance announced. However, there was no statement about the volume of imports.

Focus on soya and pork bellies

In general, traders should concentrate on soy and pork – because they are in the eye of the customs storm. On Thursday, the Wall Street Journal reported that agricultural imports were the crux of the negotiations. US President Donald Trump expects Beijing to place an order of 40 to 50 billion dollars with US farmers in the near future. Last year, however, China had only bought goods worth 8.6 billion dollars. Moreover, according to insiders, the Chinese leadership must publicly announce these purchases without any evasion with reference to the market situation or other trade obligations. So Trump wants to nail China down – we are curious.

Rising prices in Asia

Investors in China apparently believe that an agreement will be reached before the December 15 deadline if the new US tariffs are to affect Chinese products. Red chips in the CSI-300 rose by 0.6 percent to 3,902 points. The Nikkei went into the weekend with a plus of 0.2 percent at 23,354 points. This is a weekly gain of 0.3 percent.

New York remains stable

US investors were also moderately optimistic on Thursday. The Dow Jones Industrial rescued a 0.1 percent gain from the target line and closed at 27,678 points. As expected, the recently ripped downward gap in the Dow is now almost completely closed. It is always astonishing how much one can rely on the basics of chart analysis. By the way, the 50-day line, which runs at 27,243 points, now attracts investors from below. The S&P 500 closed yesterday 0.12 percent higher at 3,117 points and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.1 percent to 8,308 points.

Cutting hopes for Crude Oil

Meanwhile, you should keep an eye on regular oil market updates and market access open. There is another production cut in the pipeline. Russian sources told the news agency Tass that there will be a further cut in production in the first quarter of 2020. The cap is to be raised from 1.2 million barrels to 1.7 million barrels. There will now be bilateral talks on this – and probably also on the question of whether the cheaters will also stick to their quotas. We are curious. The market obviously does not trust the alleged deal, WTI gave 0.1 percent down to 58.37 dollars, Brent changed hands unchanged for 63.38 dollars.

This brings the day

The calendar on Friday is quite well filled, you can find the overview as always here: Market Mover
The main date will be at 2:30pm the U.S. labor market report for November.
At 4:00pm the consumer confidence of the University of Michigan will follow.
At the same time the stocks of the wholesale trade are coming in.

The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades and a relaxing weekend!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

A large block of data on the European economy, published on Thursday, showed values worse than analysts’ forecasts. Nevertheless, EUR continued to grow within the short-term trend. The pound sterling is confidently hitting multi-month highs.

DAX30 chart of the day

But the most interesting thing happens with 2 protective currencies – the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc. Despite the rebound of the US stock market, the yen and the franc did not fall, but rose against the US dollar. What does this mean? The U.S. dollar has gone into disarray today, and it is also declining for all commodities.

EUR/USD

After a break-down of the 1.11 level yesterday, which had been stubborn since November 5, the European currency rolled back a bit, but today it broke through again from the bottom to the top. The technical picture remains favorable. The next strong resistance level, which is the 200-day simple moving average, is at 1.116. With the SMA 200 above, the outlook for the dollar, despite the positive swap, will deteriorate sharply.

GOLD

The gold market today follows the euro. If the weakening of the U.S. currency continues, we will see another test of $1500 per troy ounce the other day. Why can’t gold hold its ground higher? This raises a lot of questions from investors, especially against the background of forecasts of many investment banks that the yellow metal is expected to grow globally to $2,000 next year.

INDICES

Global stock indices today have sharply reduced their volatility compared to the first 3 days of December. Bulls and bears took a break from licking their wounds. The main question is whether the history of the last year, when December instead of the traditional rally brought with it a huge correction of the markets, will not repeat itself. Tomorrow will be very important, fixing the closure of the first trading week of the month. It is possible that volatility will increase on the most important news from the USA.

What can we expect today?

08.00 Industrial production in Germany October
10.00 OPEC meeting
14.30 Number of new jobs in the United States November
14.30 Unemployment data in the US November
14.30 Changes in the number of employees in Canada November
14.30 Unemployment data for Canada November

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

05.12.2019 – Daily Report. Uncertainty everywhere: Conflicting signals are arriving in the customs dispute between China and the USA. Wall Street and Asia are picking up, Frankfurt hesitates. Investors are also puzzled about oil. Only the British pound has a clear direction – it is climbing steeply against the euro.

Frankfurt running sideways

In view of the unclear situation, investors on the Frankfurt stock market initially kept a low profile. The DAX remained unchanged at 13,136 points on Thursday morning. The stock market was dampened by data from German industry: in October, industrial companies had to accept a decline in incoming orders. In a monthly comparison, the number of new orders fell by 0.4 percent, as reported by the Federal Statistical Office. Compared to the previous year, orders fell by 5.5 percent.

Searching in the customs dispute fog

Meanwhile, investors were analysing the situation in the customs dispute. It is still unclear whether there will be a Phase 1 deal between China and the US or not. In Beijing, Gao Feng, CNBC’s Ministry of Commerce spokesman, said China believed it needed to cut relevant tariffs if both sides wanted to reach a Phase 1 agreement. Wait a minute: Attentive observers will have noticed that China had so far communicated about the gang that all US punitive tariffs would have to be “abolished” before a deal could be made. Now we are talking about “lowering”. Is that a concession?
At the same time, US Secretary of Agriculture Sonny Perdue dampened hopes on CNBC that reliable deals could be concluded with China. For example, China is not buying soybeans in the USA. US exports to China this year are depressing. Rather, China is stocking up in Argentina and Brazil. Didn’t Beijing promise to order around 50 billion dollars in products from US farmers according to the pierced news?

Asian stock markets are attracting attention

Despite this, investors in Japan took action. The Nikkei rose 0.7 percent to 23,300 points. Investors celebrated the expected adoption of an economic stimulus package worth 26 trillion yen or around 220 billion euros. In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng gained 0.6 percent to 26,217 jobs.

The Chinese CSI-300 gained 0.8 percent to 3,879 points.

In view of all this optimism, we take the liberty of issuing a small warning: if you trade CFDs or online stocks, you might want to consider a short position on China stocks. Yesterday, for the first time since 2012, an IPO flopped in China. Luoyang Jianlong Micro-Nano New Materials slipped 2 percent on its debut in Shanghai.

New York is recovering

Thanks to new hopes of a deal in the customs dispute, the US stock exchanges moved north. The Dow Jones Industrial gained 0.5 percent to 27,649 positions at the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6 percent to 3,112 points. And the Nasdaq Composite Index climbed 0.5 percent to 8,567 points. Job data from API brought a slight damper, according to which only 67,000 new jobs were created in November.

Warning on the oil market

Meanwhile, a report in the Wall Street Journal caused a sensation among energy traders. According to the report, Saudi Arabia is no longer prepared to compensate for overproduction in other countries. Specifically, Riyadh is angry with Iraq, Nigeria and Russia. OPEC and its allies have actually committed themselves to a collective reduction in emissions of 1.2 million barrels a day. We are curious to see what news will come in from the OPEC+ meeting in Vienna. You should therefore keep an eye on the regular market updates.

The pound is bursting with strength

Meanwhile, the British pound was stronger against the euro than it had been for two and a half years at 1.1839. The reason: according to a new survey by YouGov, the Conservatives came in at 42 percent and Labour at 33 percent. Other surveys also point in the same direction: DeltaPoll sees a lead of 13 percentage points, Opinium even 15, BMG only 6 and IMC 7. No one, however, sees Labour, which recently appeared radically to the left, ahead. Told you so: In our Special Report, we had already predicted that the market would want the Tories and thus clarity in Brexit, which speaks for a strong sterling.

This is what the day brings

Thursday brings some interesting dates: Market Mover
In the USA, for example, the trade balance for October will be drawn up at 2:30pm.
Ditto the weekly first applications for unemployment assistance.
At 4:00pm the new orders industry follows fort he month of October.
At the same time also the order intake for durable goods.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

So far, investors have no idea how to celebrate the New Year. Too much contradictory information comes from news sources. Because of the statements of any important decision-maker, markets can turn in the opposite direction at any time, as shown by the Wednesday.

GBP/USD Day Chart

The pound sterling went off to a 7-month high on Wednesday. Did Boris Johnson’s program succeed? In most cases, the UK market is now under political control. Only confidence in the near future and the correct Brexit will give the pound an opportunity to strengthen its position in the market.

OIL

Just the day before the OPEC meeting, oil was growing by more than 4% a day. So the data on the reduction of oil reserves in the U.S., or traders got some important insight into the upcoming conference to reduce oil production. Brent is growing fast on Wednesday and trades at weekly highs of $63.16 per barrel.

GOLD

The gold market is beginning to recover due to good demand for precious metal from India. Although the price of gold has moved slightly away from its four-week high on Wednesday, it still remains at high levels. Gold is traded at $1473 per ounce on Wednesday.

INDICES

On Wednesday, key US indices show very strong positive dynamics. The good news about the negotiations between the US and China once again fills investors with optimism. Despite signs of tension, the U.S. and China are doing everything possible to resolve the trade deal problems by November 15, when new sanctions against China will come into effect.

What will happen today?

01.30 – Retail sales volume in Australia.
16.00 – Canadian Business Activity Index

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

04.12.2019 – Daily Report. The next day, the DAX tries to recover. US President Donald Trump pulled the bull out of the hoof on Tuesday in a customs dispute with China. But on Wednesday, a new announcement in the matter caused a U-turn.

The DAX wants to go up

Astonishing resilience on the German stock market: The DAX presented itself on Wednesday morning with a plus of 1.2 percent at 13,141 points.
In Europe, punitive tariffs on cars imported into the USA continue to threaten. The American government continues to keep open the possibility of imposing 25 percent customs duties on imported cars. It remains to be seen whether these duties will be needed, Commerce Minister Wilbur Ross said in New York on Tuesday. President Donald Trump had not announced any new punitive tariffs for imported cars after the six-month inspection period that expired in mid-November.

Another new hope in the customs dispute

The Bloomberg news agency provided new hope in the customs dispute on Wednesday. Despite the recent rhetoric, the US and China are getting closer to the question of the punitive tariffs that will be reversed in Phase 1, the news agency reported, citing insiders. Trump’s recent statements – see below – are not an indication that talks have stalled.
The futures on S&P 500 and Dow Jones both rose by 0.3 percent. Hu Xijin, the cynical editor-in-chief of the communist Global Times, dismissed the news as fake news to support the share price – soon a US politician or trump would certainly report great progress. However, the ups and downs offer wonderful times for traders! If you trade CFDs or online stocks, it will be particularly exciting for you on December 15th when the next American punitive tariffs against China are due to come into force.

Trump releases the bears

The day before, Trump had let the bears loose on worldwide trade. He told journalists in London that talks with China were currently going very well. However, a deal would depend on whether he wanted it or not. There was no deadline – perhaps it would be better to wait until after the election. In a way, he likes this idea, Trump stressed several times. However, it was only a matter of him playing with his thoughts. So Trump let the whip bang in the direction of Beijing. It is interesting that he ignored the current impeachment acquisition and that he also assumes that he will be re-elected. Let’s wait and see.

Furthermore, the US House of Representatives had passed a law to support the human rights situation of the Uighurs in northwestern China. Beijing reacted angrily.

China withstands

The Chinese CSI-300 closed unchanged at 3,850 points on Wednesday. The Purchasing Managers’ Index in the services sector provided support, climbing to a seven-month high of 53.5 points in November. The Nikkei, on the other hand, lost 1.1 percent to 23,135 points.

New York dives into the abyss

Wall Street’s reaction to China News yesterday was not long in coming: prices plummeted. The Dow Jones Industrial fell by 1 percent to 27,503 points. The S&P 500 fell 0.7 percent to 3,093 points on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 also lost 0.7 percent to 8,255 points. After all, the major indices were able to contain some of their losses again. With yesterday’s move, the Dow broke a nice downward gap between roundabout 27,800 and 27,500. The S&P 500 over 3093 points looks similar. Chart analysis teaches us that such gaps are normally closed again.

Hope for oil

The bulls in the oil market rushed into the hope that OPEC+ might be able to cut production after all. WTI increased by 1.2 percent to 56.79 dollars, Brent by 1.3 percent to 61.61 dollars. Iraqi oil minister Thamir Ghadhban recently announced a reduction of 400,000 barrels a day, according to Bloomberg. There were also votes for further cuts, but these would probably not be enforceable at the rate of 1.2 million barrels per day.

This is what the day brings

The calendar on Wednesday brings some interesting events, you can find the overview as always here: Market Mover

At 2:15pm the ADP Labour Market Report November for the USA will be published.
At 3:45pm the Service Markit for November purchasing managers’ index (2nd publication) will follow.
At the same time, the ISM-Index Non-Processing Industry for November will ticker on the screens.
At 4:30pm the US crude oil inventory data from the state Energy Information Administration follows..

Last but not least at 10:15pm the decision about possible changes in the indices of the DAX family of Deutsche Börse is made.

Bernstein-Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

Trump’s trade wars are getting more serious, influencing global economic growth. The relationship between the US and China remains tense after Trump stated that it will take another year to solve the issues. Moreover, the President’s threats regarding French goods are scaring European investors and stirring trouble between the US and the EU.

EUR/USD day chart

For Bitcoin, the end of 2019 is nothing like what the analysts predicted. Even though the price has grown by almost 90% relative to the same period last year, market players wish to believe that the price can go higher after the halving. On Tuesday, Bitcoin hardly moved at all, trading at $7370.

EUR/USD

The dollar suffered once again as a result of the US leaders’ harsh statements. EUR/USD is looking good, having reached the important resistance line of 1.11 in just two days. Euro could continue its growth – as long as the Fed doesn’t act on Trump’s hints that the interest rate could be lowered even further.

GOLD

While confusion reigns in the capital markets, gold investors are feeling more energetic. On Wednesday, gold was traded at $1478 per ounce and tried to break through the top limit of the $1445-$1449 range. The investors are tired of waiting for a US-China trade deal. It’s also clear to them that new tariffs on French goods and metal imports from Argentina and Brazil mean new risks.

INDICES

Global indices kept going down on Tuesday after the US Secretary of Commerce said that unless there’s a breakthrough in the talks, new tariffs on Chinese goods will be introduced on December 15. The fall in the US markets accelerated, with S&P500 losing over 1% and Dow Jones more than 1.3%. The results of the day were mixed among European indices. It’s likely that on Wednesday European markets will keep reacting to the news from the US and fall further.

What’s next?

01.30 Australia: GDP data since the beginning of 2019
10.30 UK: purchasing managers’ index (PMI)
14.15 US: ADP nonfarm employment change for November
16.00 Canada: decision on the interest rate
16.30 US: stocks of crude oil

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

On Monday, the markets were shocked by Trump’s claims that tariffs on metal imports from Argentina and Brazil will be reinstated. This caused a lot of anxiety and made investors lock in profits.

DAX daily chart

Bitcoin is recovering its losses. BTC futures have set a new trading volume record on Bakkt and Bitmex, reaching $5 billion in one day. Investors agree that Bitcoin is turning from a speculative asset to a stable one. If BTC manages to reach $7780 and remain there, the road to $8500 will lie open.

EUR/USD

Upbeat manufacturing activity index data across Europe served as a much-needed growth driver for euro. USD is capitulating following negative news from the US, with euro up 0.5% at 1.1075.

GOLD

Gold ended Monday with mixed results. It would seem like the price should grow following a decrease in the stock market, but that didn’t happen. Investors still prefer to buy currencies rather than the precious metal. Perhaps they need more time: gold might resume growth during the next trading session.

INDICES

Global indices were down on Monday following Trump’s strong statements on metal import tariffs. Across global markets, investors decided to take profits. The trend can continue, because the markets showed strong growth in November. S&P500 lost 1%, Dow Jones is down by 0.8%, while DAX lost 2%.

What’s next?

4.30 Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on the interest rate
10.30 UK: construction activity index

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

02.12.2019 – Daily Report. A wrong world on the German stock exchange: Despite new, offensive demands from China in the customs dispute, investors are taking action. Some brokers referred to strong data from the Middle Kingdom.

The DAX is on the rise

Investors in Frankfurt were optimistic on Monday morning – the DAX rose by 0.7 percent to 13,325 points. The look back is predominantly friendly: Despite the continuing sideways range, the DAX gained 2.9 percent in November. A joyful return if you trade stocks online. And rather a small yield if you trade CFD. By the way, the German stock market indicator achieved its third consecutive monthly gain in November.

China wants to know

Interestingly, on Monday morning, the global trade ticked off a message from Beijing with a shrug of the shoulders, which actually looks like a real stopper in the customs dispute. According to the Communist Party’s Global Times, China is now demanding the withdrawal of existing tariffs to settle the trade dispute with the US. A promise by the Americans to renounce new tariffs planned for mid-December alone would not suffice. The Chinese have thus officially broken the news embargo surrounding the negotiations and announced publicly what they want.

However, since the futures on S&P 500 and Dow Jones rose by 0.4 percent in the morning, only three interpretations are possible. Either the market does not believe the sometimes quite full-bodied hardliner paper. And hope has not died, for example, because there is still no real countermeasure from Beijing under the pro-democracy laws in the US regarding Hong Kong. For example, the Chinese State Department has banned the mooring of US warships in Hong Kong and imposed sanctions on American aid organisations. However, the trade talks are not affected. Or the brokers assume that US President Donald Trump will give in in order not to plunge the stock exchange into turbulence before the US election. Or some investors already know more. Let’s wait and see.

Profits in Asia

The Asian stock markets rose. Investors were pleased with the unexpectedly strong rise in Chinese industry. The Caixin/Markit index climbed to 51.8 points, up from 51.7 in October. The CSI-300 held up 0.1 percent to 3,833 points. The Nikkei even closed 1 percent higher at 23,530 points. The slightly weaker yen provided a tailwind.

No discount hunting on Wall Street

On Friday only a few US investors had been on a bargain hunt. In the shortened trade after Thanksgiving, many US brokers had been cautious about the customs dispute. On the floor, many were waiting to see whether Beijing would perhaps announce countermeasures on the weekend for the signing of the Pro Hong Kong laws by US President Donald Trump.

The Dow Jones Industrial fell by 0.4 percent to 28,051 points. In November, the Dow achieved a return of 3.7 percent. The S&P 500 also lost 0.4 percent to 3,141 positions on Friday. Its November balance sheet is plus 3.4 percent. The Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.5 percent to 8,404 points at the end of the week. Prior to this, the indices had closed positive for four days in a row and also reached new all-time highs at the same time.

After Black Friday the bears lurk

A look remains at the shopping madness on Black Friday and today’s Cyber Monday – both days are considered important yardsticks for the Christmas business. As the Wall Street Journal has just reported, the bears are preparing for a feast. The short sellers would have increased bets against the brick-and-mortar retailers, the traders who sell their goods mainly in shops and not online. According to financial data firm S3 Partners, short positions on SPDR S&P Retail accounted for 441 percent of available fund shares last week. We are curious whether the expected bear market will occur or not.

Dissent in OPEC

The tension is also growing in the energy market – this week OPEC is discussing cuts in production. The cartel and its allies will meet in Vienna on 5 and 6 December. The signals that have just arrived are rather bearish. For example, Bloomberg, referring to insiders, reported that Saudi Arabia was gradually losing patience with the tricksters and was perhaps no longer prepared to lower its production because other countries were exceeding their quotas. Moreover, Russia pleaded for more patience when deciding on further support policies. It is still too early to negotiate on this issue, Russian Energy Minister Alexander Nowak said on Friday according to news agency Tass. After all, the current agreement on oil production volumes still runs until the end of March.

That’s what the day brings

The diary brings some interesting events, you will find the overview as always here:
Market Mover

It will be exciting at 15.00 for euro and government bonds. Then the new head of the ECB, Christine Lagarde, makes a statement at the Econ hearing of the European Parliament.

At the same time, the ECB’s Monthly Bulletin for November is due to arrive.

At 15:45 the ISM Purchasing Managers’ Index Industry in the USA will run on the ticker in November.

And at 16.00 o’clock the building expenditures arrive in October.

The Bernstein-Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

The end of last week didn’t bring any more news about the trade talks. The bickering between US and China just won’t end. The unrest in Hong Kong isn’t helping, either. Altogether these issues are affecting the markets negatively, dragging down the indices.

Brent day chart

For Bitcoin, the end of the trading week turned out much better than its beginning. BTC managed to return above $7000 and dig in around the $7500 mark. The crypto market is much smaller than traditional markets, which makes it easier to manipulate. Even though Bitcoin is showing upward movement, this could very well be a correction within the general downward trend.

EUR/USD

Consumer price index in the euro area has accelerated to 1%, which is higher than expected. In spite of this news, the pair failed to grow. Euro’s weakness remains in evidence. The absence of significant movement shows that the market is balanced and that both the bulls and the bears are happy with the current $1.10 price.

GOLD

Gold ended November in the red, having lost 3.24%. There’s a lack of sellers in the market, and it’s quite possible that gold will finish the year at $1500. The deteriorating relationship between China and the US is forcing investors to move into hedging assets, such as gold.

INDICES

Friday showed that markets are easy to scare right now. After the holiday, the US markets belatedly reacted to Thursday’s news. S&P500 lost 0.4% and closed at 3140. Overall, markets in the US showed good growth in November, so the latest slump could have just been large players taking profits.

What’s next?

2.45 China: manufacturing activity index
9.55 Germany: manufacturing activity index
10.30 UK: manufacturing activity index
16.00 US: manufacturing activity index

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.