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25.09.2019 – Daily report. The bears have taken power on the Frankfurt stage. On the one hand, global trade had to deal with the official initiation of an impeachment trial by the Democrats against US President Donald Trump. On the other hand, The Donald unexpectedly raged harshly against the People’s Republic of China. A deal in the customs dispute is apparently a long way off.

German industry disappointed

The German stock market is going downhill: the DAX fell 1 percent in early trading to 12,184 points. At first, the German industry caused scepticism with new, negative data. The industry’s export expectations fell in September by 2.9 points to minus 5.2 points, according to the Ifo Institute. This means that the mood among German exporters has not been as bad as it has been since the 2009 financial crisis. As always, you can find all the information here: Market Mover

Democrats start trump impeachment

In addition, the stock market participants pondered the latest political developments in Washington D.C. – we have already summarized the possible effects for you in a special report. The US Democrats yesterday announced the initiation of a House of Representatives impeachment procedure against Trump. The latest trigger for this was the alleged abuse of power by Donald Trump – who is said to have urged Ukraine to initiate corruption investigations against the family of the democratic challenger Joe Biden. This should at least increase the uncertainty on the world’s stock markets.

Losses in Asia

The possible impeachment also caused restraint on the Asian stock markets: the Chinese CSI-300 fell by 0.8 percent to 3,871 positions. The Nikkei 225 closed in Tokyo with a loss of 0.4 percent at 22,020 points. The Republicans in the Senate could indeed dismiss the case. But the tug-of-war probably has an influence on the US-Chinese trade dispute. Because if the American president has to waste his time with mud battles, he cannot negotiate any deals. Especially since the Communists in Beijing will closely monitor the matter and perhaps wait for a soft successor in the White House to end the customs dispute in the sense of the People’s Republic. This is likely to put a strain on both the Chinese and American economies.

Tirades against China

Trump himself seems to be aware of this, yesterday he didn’t mince his words about Beijing. At the United Nations General Assembly in New York, he once again accused China of unfair trade practices. The list of charges is long: hoped-for reforms not implemented, state subsidies, currency manipulations, technology theft, theft of intellectual property. Trump became even clearer: he hoped for an agreement in the trade dispute, but would not accept a bad agreement for the USA.

Horror in New York

In view of the latest developments, the US stock market officials put on the handbrake the evening before. In addition, the mood of US consumers had cooled off surprisingly significantly in September due to the trade conflict with China. The Dow Jones fell by 0.5 percent to 26,808 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.8 percent to 2,967 points and the Nasdaq 100 fell by 1.4 percent to 7,710 points.

This is what the day brings

Traders in British pounds can look forward to a new act in the Brexit theatre: British MPs will return to parliament today from their forced break after the British Supreme Court declared the break illegal.
At 4pm the US new building sales are scheduled for August.
And at 4:30 pm the crude oil inventory data (week) are reported to the state Energy Information Administration.
The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

25.09.2019 – Special report. The democrats want to kick Donald Trump out of office. The president is said to have forced Ukraine to legally target the family of his sharpest adversary Joe Biden for corruption. If the Impeachment project succeeds, Wall Street will shake. Dollars, Treasuries and Gold will be included. Or else, Trump emerges victorious and the bull market continues. We shed light on the background.

Unexpected comes often

On the PredictIt betting website, the bets on a high volume impeachment of trumps just shot up sharply. And Wall Street fell a little after the Democrats’ announcement, which was also due to the issue of China. There is still some composure, because the matter could become an own goal for the Democrats. But unexpectedly often comes.

A look into history

By way of comparison, in the Watergate affair, which lasted almost two years until Richard Nixon’s resignation on August 9, 1974, with which he preceded an impeachment, Wall Street was in a severe slump, which continued after the exit. However, the Vietnam War, the Yom Kippur War and the oil shock had sent the USA into recession.
Before the impeachment proceedings against Bill Clinton, the stock market was largely unimpressed; after the failure in February 1999, the Dow Jones continued to rise before the dot-com bubble gradually blew up. However, Wall Street was also in a heightened Internet euphoria and the USA had drastically reduced government spending in the wake of the end of the Cold War.

Scenario 1): Trump topples

This time the US economy is booming as well – but the current democratic front runners are not considered business-friendly. So we suspect Wall Street will collapse if Trump falls. There could well be a minus of 3,000 points in the Dow Jones, for example. For one thing, this possibility is not yet priced in. On the other hand, if the Democrats win a new election – perhaps even by a representative of the left-wing radicals – higher corporate and income taxes are on the agenda. In addition, open borders for all, including full medical care; this with simultaneous restrictions on the possession of weapons by tax-paying citizens. Thus, weapons shares could also become a short.
Furthermore, the US oil industry in particular is likely to suffer because of the threat of a new, green energy policy. Shares of small oil producers and service companies should therefore also be eligible for a short. This could lead to a shortage of oil on the world market and would also be accompanied by weaker demand from the US economy, but would probably be offset by Iran being freed from sanctions and new oil exports from the failed socialist state of Venezuela. For victorious democrats would presumably not be following a hard foreign policy course. Oil would therefore probably be neutral. On the other hand, American eco-shares would be a long trade in second-line stocks: solar, water treatment, electric cars.
The usual safe havens in turbulent times such as gold, silver and US Treasuries should gain ground. In addition, the Japanese yen should also be in demand. This, in turn, should put pressure on the Nikkei in particular, as exports from Nippon are suffering. And since China would probably receive a weaker US counterparty in a customs deal that would, as always, give in, Chinese equities would be more of a long-side investment.
Conclusion: You should price in price fluctuations in all assets of 15 to 25 percent until the situation has calmed down in a new election.

scenario 2): Victory for Trump

Trump could survive the attack – either because the Democrats are afraid of the voters, or because they are afraid of the voters. Especially since most people in the US have other worries than the intrigues in the Washington D.C. swamp anyway. According to a survey by Politico/Morning Consult last week, only 37 percent want an impeachment. Let’s wait and see how the mood develops. Or the republican defense front will hold. And Trump turns the tables and the Democrats become the real bad guys in the eyes of the voters because of their own misdemeanours – more about that. What The Donald will turn into a glorious election victory in 2020 in the coming months.
In this case, Wall Street is likely to continue its upward trajectory as further business-friendly policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve can be expected. Should a republican-dominated Congress emerge from the January 2020 election and the Federal Reserve cut interest rates further, a plus of 10 percent or more in the Dow is quite possible. Then a strengthened trump card against China should enforce a hard and for the USA good tariff deal. Bonds and gold should also increase, but far less than in scenario 1, due to the policy of cheap money. We also consider construction stocks to be an interesting investment, as the country’s infrastructure will have to be renewed in the long term, but this will hardly be possible to push forward during this term of office. Trump will presumably also continue to promote the US oil industry in order to ensure a good supply of oil in cooperation with the Saudis – because cheap energy makes voters happy. In this case, oil is more likely to be a short investment.
However, it is important for you to know the background if you are trading CFD or online stocks – this is the only way you can filter out the important facts from your regular real-time updates and position yourself correctly on the stock market.

Caution on Thursday

Important for all those who trade CFD and online stocks will now be tomorrow’s Thursday, it could bring some volatility in stocks, bonds and the dollar: Because the House Intelligence Committee has summoned Joseph Maguire, the Acting Director of National Intelligence. He is supposed to solve the Ukraine affair.
Trump is said to have called on the new Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj to investigate corruption against Hunter Biden, the son of leading democratic politician Joe Biden. Before the meeting, Trump is said to have frozen promised military aid to Ukraine. According to the New York Times, the amount involved was 391 million US dollars. A secret service employee reported this to an internal control authority. The whistleblower now wants to testify before the congress. This raises suspicions that Trump abused his power. Trump twittered that he would publish a “complete and unedited” transcript of the phone call that would exonerate him. According to “The Federalist”, the tipster is said to have hired a lawyer who worked for both Hillary Clinton and Chuck Schumer, the Democratic faction leader in the Senate. Which looks like a party political witch hunt.

Double standards and hypocrisy

The whole thing has a bad taste in other things too. In his time as vice-president, democrat Joe Biden succeeded in getting Ukraine to close its Attorney General Viktor Shokin. He once investigated corruption at a Ukrainian gas company called Burisma Holdings – and Hunter Biden, in turn, employed him for a whopping 50,000 dollars a month. By the way, his son had no experience with natural gas or Ukraine. Shokin told ABC that there was no doubt that Biden Senior had him dumped for the investigation.
In fact, Joe Biden confirmed the case last year before the Council on Foreign Relations, which is a foreign policy think tank. Biden boasted that he was pushing Ukraine into a corner with the threat of either firing Shokin or waiving U.S. $1 billion in loans, the publication The Hill reported. The then President Petro Poroshenko then fired Shokin. According to Biden, President Barack Obama knew about the blackmail that had driven Ukraine into bankruptcy.

How corrupt are the democrats?

Moreover, Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani is currently firing from all pipes: Hunter Biden washed around 3 million dollars on the Ukraine-Latvia-Cyprus route. This accusation is also hushed up by the “Swamp Media”, he twittered. Just like the fact that the Biden family had taken bribes of 1.5 billion dollars from China through a network of companies. In fact, the New York Post reported a historic deal by the Bank of China, which set up an investment fund called Bohai Harvest RST, which cooperated with a company called Rosemont Seneca Partners. Two of Rosemont’s three owners were Hunter Biden and Chris Heinz – son-in-law of former Democratic Foreign Minister John Kerry.

It all depends on the Republicans

And so the matter could go on: An impeachment launched by the House of Representatives with a simple majority must be approved by the Senate with a two-thirds majority. Since the Republicans hold 53 of the 100 seats there, 20 Republicans would have to be revoted. Perhaps the front will hold. But some opportunists can change sides. In fact, Republican Senator Mitt Romney has raised concerns about possible pressure on Ukraine – presumably he will vote to remove himself from office to run for president.
Whatever the outcome, it is clear that the stock market does not like uncertainty – and we will see increased volatility. Which could make the VIX a possible long trade. So keep an eye on things and keep your trading platform open. Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

24.09.2019 – Daily report. The Ifo index provides a little hope for the stock market. Finally a slight plus again. The announced continuation of talks in the trade dispute between China and the USA was also positively received on the Frankfurt floor.

Slight plus in Frankfurt

Tough trading, but at least no complete standstill on the German stock exchange. By Tuesday midday, the DAX had achieved a minimal gain of 0.2 percent to 12,365 points. The reason for this was the Ifo index – the DAX rose slightly after its presentation, but the euro hardly reacted.

Pause in the German downturn

The Business Climate Index provided a weak ray of hope in terms of fear of recession: it recovered somewhat in September and climbed to 94.6 points. After five consecutive declines, this was also the time: in the previous month, the indicator had been at 94.3 points, its lowest level since November 2012. The downturn is taking a break,” commented Ifo CEO Clemens Fuest. As always, you can find all the data here: Market Mover

New hope in the trade dispute

There was positive news in the ongoing China/USA customs dispute. US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin announced the resumption of talks with the Chinese side in two weeks’ time. The Chinese negotiator, Vice President Liu He, will travel to Washington at the beginning of October.
Another rather bizarre footnote, which indicates that there may be cracks in the USA team: According to CNBC, US President Donald Trump was visibly surprised by his finance minister on Monday. Mnuchin said during a meeting at the United Nations with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that he himself had asked the Chinese to cancel the planned visits to American farmers. We think: If the US Negotiating Commission is reappointed or serious disagreements with the President come to light, Wall Street will resent this – the stock market players in global trade are hanging on every half-sentence from the Chinese and American leadership.

Moderate profits in Asia

Despite all this, Asian brokers have tended to take a positive view of the latest news: In China, the CSI-300 rose by a moderate 0.3 percent to 3,901 points. In Tokyo, the Nikkei rose moderately by 0.1 percent to 22,099 points.

Wait and see in New York

Meanwhile, Wall Street is sceptical: the Dow Jones Industrial rose by 0.1 percent to 26,950 points the previous evening. The S&P 500 hardly closed measurably down at 2,992 points. And the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.1 per cent to 7,819 points.

New turnaround in Brexit

There is still one comment for traders in the foreign exchange market: The Supreme Court in Great Britain has just inflicted a bitter defeat on Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It was therefore illegal to send Parliament on forced leave. The British pound rose immediately. The verdict is likely to fuel the volatility in the British pound again – for new volts of the Brexit inhibitors in parliament are likely to be imminent. And a no deal brexit is now becoming more difficult.

This is what the day brings

In the USA the Case-Shiller house price index will be announced at 3:00pm.
At 4:00pm the consumer confidence of the Conference Board follows.
At 10:30pm the API crude oil stock data will run over the ticker.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

23.09.2019 – Daily report. Painful weekly start for the bulls on the German stock exchange – Monday initially brings losses. The reason is disappointed hopes in the customs dispute negotiations between China and the USA.

Diving down in Frankfurt

Investors on the German stock exchange initially kept a low profile at the beginning of the week. The DAX slipped by 1.1 percent to 12,326 points by midday. The weak German purchasing managers’ indices caused skepticism; as always, you can find all the data here: Market Mover

Disappointment in customs dispute

Beijing, however, was the main source of sales pressure. Apparently, an agreement in the customs dispute between China and the USA has moved into the distant future. After two days of preparations in Washington for the talks planned for early October, the Chinese delegation spoke of “constructive discussions” on Saturday. However, the delegation cancelled a visit to farmers in Montana and Nebraska. This indicates that the Chinese do not even want to make the promised purchases – especially of soy – a reality.

Meanwhile, an extremely self-confident US President Donald Trump dampened hopes of a quick agreement. He does not necessarily need a trade agreement before the presidential election in November 2020, said POTUS (President of the United States). Trump added on Friday at the press conference with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison that he did not want an interim solution – but a complete deal. In addition, it is not enough for the Chinese simply to buy more agricultural products. According to “Politico”, the USA had signalled its willingness – the US government wanted to exempt some Chinese products from punitive tariffs. But it is more likely to be a question of solving supplier problems for US companies.

This looks very much like a volatile hanging game on the stock market that has been prolonged by months. This means that you should keep direct market access open on your trading platform and keep an eye on regular market updates.

Overseas sales

In view of the customs negotiations, investors pressed the sell button. In China, the CSI-300 fell 1.1 percent to 3,891 points. In Japan, there was no trading on Monday due to the early fall holiday. Wall Street also closed in the red on Friday. In addition, the large decline on the futures markets caused turbulence. The Dow Jones Industrial lost 0.6 per cent to 26,935 points – over the course of a week, the minus thus amounted to a good 1 per cent. The S&P 500 lost 0.5 percent to 2,992 points on Friday and the Nasdaq 100 even slipped by 1 percent to 7,824 points.

Futures premiere at Bitcoin

There is a novelty for all Bitcoin traders: Intercontinental Exchange, the owner of the New York Stock Exchange, launched its first futures contract yesterday, which will be paid out in Bitcoin. This initially had little effect on the price of the crypto currency, which fluctuated around 9,950 dollars.

Ukraine disaster for the Democrats

Last but not least, a look at US policy: the Ukraine affair is currently turning into a disaster for the Democrats. Trump apparently did not abuse his power and put pressure on Kiev to publish unpleasant details about the Biden family. At least Ukrainian Foreign Minister Vadym Prystaiko told the publication “Hromadske”. However, now Hunter Biden, the son of the current leading democratic challenger Joe Biden, is coming into focus. According to the New York Times, Hunter is said to have earned up to 50,000 dollars a month from the Burisma gas company – without any experience in Ukraine or the gas industry. This was at the time when Joe Biden was vice president and when the U.S. was successfully exerting pressure to remove the Ukrainian Attorney General who was investigating Burisma at the time. By the way, Hunter had been released from the Navy reserve for cocaine abuse – and he only got there thanks to an exemption without military training.

Why is that interesting if you trade CFDs or are involved in equities online? Quite simply, because Wall Street is only likely to stay in bullseye mode if Trump wins the election. At least that’s what hedge fund legend Leon Cooperman believes. He said at CNBC’s Delivering Alpha conference that if Bernie Sanders or Elizabeth Warren win, it will kick off the next bear market.

This is what the day brings

The calendar brings some interesting events on Monday.
First the Chicago Fed National Activity Index August will be announced at 14.30 hrs.
Then at 15.45 the US Purchasing Managers Indices are due.
At the same time, the European Central Bank will publish its weekly report on the bond purchase program.

Since outgoing ECB President Mario Draghi will also be speaking, it will be interesting to hear about the euro and bonds.
In Germany, the index changes for DAX, MDAX and SDAX come into force.
Bernstein-Bank wishes successful trades!

Wichtige Hinweise:

Der Inhalt dieser Publikation dient ausschließlich allgemeinen Informationszwecken. Es handelt sich in diesem Kontext weder um eine individuelle Anlageempfehlung oder -beratung, noch um ein Angebot zum Erwerb oder der Veräußerung von Wertpapieren oder anderen Finanzprodukten. Der betreffende Inhalt sowie sämtliche enthaltenen Informationen ersetzen in keiner Weise eine individuelle anleger- bzw. anlagegerechte Beratung. Jegliche Darstellungen oder Angaben zu gegenwertigen oder vergangenen Wertentwicklungen der betreffenden Basiswerte erlauben keine verlässliche Prognose oder Indikation für die Zukunft. Sämtliche aufgeführte Informationen und Daten dieser Publikation basieren auf zuverlässigen Quellen. Die Bernstein Bank übernimmt jedoch keine Gewähr bezüglich der Aktualität, Korrektheit und Vollständigkeit der in dieser Veröffentlichung aufgeführten Informationen und Daten. An den Finanzmärkten gehandelte Wertpapiere unterliegen Kursschwankungen. Ein Contract for Difference (CFD) stellt darüber hinaus ein Finanzinstrument mit Hebelwirkung dar. Der CFD-Handel beinhaltet vor diesem Hintergrund ein hohes Risiko bis zum Totalverlust und ist damit unter Umständen nicht für jeden Anleger geeignet. Stellen Sie deshalb sicher, dass Sie alle korrelierenden Risiken vollständig verstanden haben. Lassen Sie sich gegebenenfalls von unabhängiger Seite beraten.

18.09.2019 – Daily report. Rien ne va plus: The shareholders on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange go on a temporary strike. Commitments are in short supply. It is hardly to be expected that the situation will change over the course of the day. Because in the evening the Federal Reserve announces its interest decision. Otherwise, the situation on the oil market will continue to ease.

Break in Frankfurt

Hardly any movement on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange: The DAX has barely changed recently at around 12,380 points. The crisis in the Persian Gulf receded into the background. Hardly any attention was paid to a report on the faltering European automobile market: from January to August, 3.2 percent fewer cars were registered than in the same period last year. For investors, only the Federal Reserve was important: for most brokers, another rate cut is a foregone conclusion.

Second rate cut priced in

This much conviction has never been so strong: most analysts expect central bankers to lower their key interest rate band by a further 0.25 percentage points; the current range is between 1.75 and 2.0 percent. At the end of July, the currency authorities had lowered interest rates for the first time in more than ten years.

The unshakeable faith of the market naturally harbours a high potential for disappointment – which often comes unexpectedly. Perhaps Fed head Jerome Powell wants to demonstrate his independence. If you trade CFDs or are active in online stock trading, you might want to consider a protective put. Or because of the recent rise in oil prices and the unresolved trade dispute with China, the Fed is pushing the gas pedal through and lowering interest rates even more than hoped for – then you can look forward to a bull market on the stock exchange.

Relaxation on the oil market

By the way, the magazine “Forbes” highlighted how closely the topics of oil/ Iran and China are connected. Beijing has promised Tehran investments of 400 billion dollars over the next 25 years. The aim is to expand oil and gas production and infrastructure. China wants to quench its thirst for oil and de facto circumvent the sanctions of the West. Interesting side effect: If the USA and Saudi Arabia were to strike at Abquaiq and Kurais against Iran in retaliation for the weekend air strike, they would also hit China. If refineries and ports are destroyed, the Chinese would probably have to put even more money on the table for reconstruction.
Otherwise, the oil price settled back south after the wild ride of the past few days. A barrel of WTI was last traded at around 59 dollars, a barrel of Brent at around 65 dollars. Saudi Aramco had reported that full production was to be restored by the end of September.

No clear trend in Asia

The CSI-300 in China gained 0.5 percent in the morning to 3,911 points. The Nikkei closed 0.2 percent lower at 21,961 points. Japan reported falling exports again in August – for the ninth time in a row. The minus of 8.2 percent was quite strong, with many analysts expecting an even worse decline. All data can be found here: Market Mover

A slight plus in New York

On the evening before, the New York Stock Exchange had also been rather reserved. The Dow Jones Industrial gained a little only shortly before the closing bell and dropped 0.1 percent more firmly out of trading at 27,111 points. The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 3,006 points and the Nasdaq 100 climbed 0.5 percent to 7,889 points.

This is what the day brings

The Fed’s interest rate decision marks the most important date of the day at 8 pm German time. It will be even more exciting from 8:30pm when Fed Chairman Powell will give his outlook on the topics of inflation, economic growth and unemployment. Each half-sentence could whirl Wall Street, Dollar and US-Bonds around, therefore you should absolutely keep your regular market updates in the view.
Before that, US building permits and construction starts for August are due at 2:30pm.

The weekly crude oil inventory data from the Energy Information Administration will also be available from 4:30pm.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

17.09.2019 – Daily report. It hasn’t been as bad as expected so far: No war in the Persian Gulf, relatively moderate tones from Washington and Riyadh, the oil price is not shooting up any further. Nevertheless, investors in global trading remain cautious. And for good reason: We may experience the calm before the storm on the stock market and in the oil market.

Caution in Frankfurt

First of all, wait and see: On Tuesday noon, the DAX was down by 0.1 percent to 12,366 points. After eight winning days in a row, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange had again booked a setback on Monday, but only a small one. In view of the air strike on the Saudi oil industry, this is astonishing, just like the so far restrained reactions of Saudi Arabia and the USA.
US President Donald Trump said he did not want war; the Saudis did not hold the mullahs in Tehran directly responsible for the attack on Abqaiq. But nobody believes that the Huthi rebels in Yemen should be able to carry out such a professional attack. Ergo: Not all days are evening yet, the danger of war is by no means averted. So always keep an eye on regular market updates and direct market access open.

Moderately positive ZEW data

Meanwhile, the Frankfurt Stock Exchange ticked off new data from the ZEW with a shrug of the shoulders. The medium-term economic expectations of financial analysts and institutional investors were better in September: The index rose from -44.1 points in August to -22.5 points. However, the indicator of the Centre for European Economic Research in Mannheim remains well below its long-term average of 21.5 points.

Scepticism in Asia

There was some relief on another front: Trump told Congress that the US and Japan were ready to sign a trade deal. And the Chinese state television CCTV reported that a Chinese delegation would arrive in Washington this week to prepare for negotiations at the highest level in October. Deputy Finance Minister Liao Min also flew to the USA, the invitation had come from Washington. The CSI-300 nevertheless dropped by 1.7 percent to 3,891 points. After the long weekend, the Nikkei recorded only a plus of 0.1 percent to 22,001 points.

New York is waiting

In the USA, doubts about the Federal Reserve’s expected rate cut were growing. An average of 25 basis points is considered to have been agreed by most brokers. However, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may feel compelled to prove his independence in the face of Trump’s repeated pushing. The Dow Jones index lost 0.5 percent yesterday to 27,076 points. The S&P 500 lost 0.3 percent to 2,997 points. And the Nasdaq Composite also lost 0.3 percent to 8,153 points.

This is what the day brings

In addition to the smouldering conflict in the Persian Gulf, a few economic data items are coming to the fore. As always, you will find an overview here: Market Mover
At 2:30pm US data on industrial production in August will be available on the ticker.
This is followed by the NAHB housing market index at 4pm.

Traders in the Forex market should also carefully scan the news regarding the British Pound and Brexit: The highest British court deals with the forced break of the parliament. Should this be overturned, we are threatened with new hustle and bustle in the House of Commons. Oooorder!

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

16.09.2019 – Daily report. The professionally executed air strike on an important Saudi oil plant stops the latest DAX bull market. Oil prices are now skyrocketing at double-digit rates, and gold and silver are picking up. Iran is presumably behind the attack. The question now is whether the USA and Saudi Arabia are retaliating.

Fear of war depresses the DAX

After eight days of gains, the German benchmark index fell back. By Monday midday, the DAX had fallen by 0.7 percent to 12,378 points. The reason for this was the attack on the important Saudi oil refinery Abqaiq – now a conflagration is threatening the Persian Gulf.
As we had already analysed for you weeks ago in a special report, there is now a threat of the USA destroying Iran – especially the Revolutionary Guards. So be sure to keep an eye on the regular market updates and trade only with Germany’s best brokers with Bafin licenses who have strong servers – if it starts, the oil price should continue to shoot up and the world’s stock exchanges should shake.

Oil price jump

On Monday morning, the price of Brent shot up by up to 20 percent in the first trading minutes before the situation calmed down again. In percentage terms, this was the biggest price jump since the Iraq war in January 1991. In absolute terms, the rise of just under 12 dollars in the Brent future in London was even the largest since the contract was issued in 1988, as Bloomberg added. WTI rose by around 11 percent. In the meantime, US President Donald Trump relaxed the situation by announcing on Twitter that he would tap into the strategic oil reserve if necessary.

Air raid on Saudi refinery

Over the weekend, the largest oil refinery in Saudi Arabia in Abqaiq came under fire. The air raid – probably with drones and cruise missiles – hit the world’s largest Saudi Aramco refinery in Abqaiq near Khuraii’s second largest Saudi oil field early Saturday morning. The Saudis had to cut their production by 5.7 million barrels or about half. While experts do not see any sustained supply bottlenecks, the blow proves the vulnerability of the oil plants – surprisingly, there is no air defence like the Israeli “Iron Dome”.
While the Houthi rebels from Yemen took responsibility, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo blamed Iran for the attack. The rebels reported the use of ten drones, but there were 19 impacts. Photos of wreckage in the Saudi desert, which probably belong more to missiles than to drones, continued to circulate on the Internet. On Sunday evening, a US government spokesman reported that there were indications that missiles had flown in from a west-northwest direction, i.e. from Iran – and not from a southern direction from Yemen.

Locked and loaded

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has threatened Iran with retaliation after the attack on Saudi Arabia. The United States is “locked and loaded”, which means that the weapon is loaded and the cock is cocked. Tehran rejected the accusations.
The commander of the Iranian Aerospace Force of the Revolutionary Guards, Amir Ali Hajizadeh, indirectly threatened the USA with war and immediately identified his troops as the main target of the Americans. Hajizadeh told the official news agency Tasnim that all American bases and aircraft carriers are within a distance of 2,000 kilometres around Iran and thus within reach of Iranian missiles. He added: “His country has always been ready for a total war. We think: If an American aircraft carrier is sunk, then the Iranian army will be exterminated. Which in turn would draw the respective allies into a great war: Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Israel on the one hand; Houthi rebels, Hamas, Hezbollah, Lebanon on the other.

Dampers from China

Other factors also depressed sentiment on the stock market. Recent data shows that China’s economy was weaker than expected due to the trade war with the US and structural problems in August. Growth in industrial production, retail sales and investment in property, plant and equipment continued to slow. As always, you can find all the data here: : Market Mover

In the People’s Republic of China, the CSI-300 with the country’s most important blue chips fell by 0.4 percent to 3,958 points. In Japan, the stock exchanges were closed due to a holiday.

Waiting in New York

On Friday, investors in New York had taken it easy. The Dow Jones gained 0.1 percent to 27,220 points, a weekly gain of 1.6 percent. The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent to 3,007 points on Friday and the Nasdaq 100 lost 0.3 percent to 7893 points. Even solid economic data from the US retail trade did not create a buying mood.

This is what the day brings

Apart from the trouble spot in the Persian Gulf, there are hardly any important news to come. But these events offer more than enough material to shake the global financial markets – so keep your trading platform in view and your market access open at all times.

At best, the Empire State Index for September at 2.30 pm will be important.
The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

13.09.2019 – Daily report. The European Central Bank delivered as hoped and further relaxed monetary policy. The stock market is satisfied and buying. But this is only restrained: For perhaps the era of cheap money will end after the departure of Mario Draghi – resistance is apparently forming in the central bank. Otherwise the investors wait for new economic data from the USA. And hope for a customs deal between China and the USA.

Moderate gains for the DAX

The German stock market continues to make progress. By Friday midday, the leading index had climbed by 0.2 percent to 12,439 points. Not bad: Since the low in August, the DAX has thus gained more than ten percent.
No wonder, the ECB decided at its meeting yesterday to raise the penalty rate for bank deposits from 0.4 percent to 0.5 percent for the first time since 2016. In addition, the ECB wants to buy bonds worth 20 billion euros per month again from November 1. Thus, the program to buy government and corporate bonds, which was terminated at the end of 2018, will be reactivated – it will now continue indefinitely. The debt states, like addicts, are thus always getting new material. How the gigantic debt bubble will ever be reduced remains a mystery – with considerable crash risks for the stock market if at any time a state declares default.

Resistance to the flood of money

This insight also seems to be moving forward in the ECB. According to the “Spiegel”, the majority of the Central Bank Council was this time as close as never before, even if Draghi later presented things differently. According to insiders, a two-digit number of the 25-strong committee opposed the new steps – the Bundesbank and even the French, but a formal vote had not taken place. When you trade CFD or online stocks, you need to keep an eye on possible internal turmoil in the ECB – this has implications for stocks, bonds and currencies. Especially now that Christine Lagarde is taking up her post as head of the ECB – and according to many experts, she has earned herself a reputation of ignorance in the Argentine crisis.

US customs concession?

Meanwhile, overseas investors are counting on an agreement in the customs dispute between China and the USA. US President Donald Trump, on the advice of his entourage, is apparently thinking about a transitional deal with China. This was reported by the news agency Bloomberg with reference to several insiders. According to the report, the US could postpone or even reverse new punitive tariffs on Chinese goods if China is prepared to make concessions in return. Trump did not confirm this clearly to reporters in Baltimore – he said he favoured a full deal, but the easy points might have to be settled first in an interim deal – although there are no really simple issues.
While the Chinese stock market was unable to react due to a holiday, the Nikkei gained 1.1 per cent to 21,988 points – its highest level in over four months.

Rising prices in New York

Brokers in New York also bet on a tariff dispute deal: the Dow Jones Industrial climbed for the seventh consecutive trading day, missing its all-time high by 100 points. After profit taking set in, the Dow saved a gain of 0.2 percent to 27,182 points. The S&P 500 finally gained 0.3 percent to around 3,010 points and the Nasdaq 100 gained 0.4 percent to 7,917 points.

This is what the day brings

The calendar brings some interesting events, you can find the overview as always here: Market Mover
First of all, at 2:30pm the US retail turnover in August is due, ditto the import prices.
At 4:00pm, consumer confidence at the University of Michigan in September and stocks in July will follow.
US consumption in particular will be closely monitored as the domestic market will be a key factor for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

12.09.2019 – Daily report. Wait and see in Frankfurt – investors in Frankfurt are hoping for a massive monetary policy programme from the European Central Bank by Mario Draghi, the outgoing head of the European Central Bank. In addition, US President Donald Trump sent a signal of goodwill to Beijing in the customs dispute.

Moderate DAX gain

More and more optimistic speculations about the extent of the new money injections have been circulating on the Frankfurt floor recently. Nevertheless, the DAX lost its early gains and rose only 0.1 percent to 12,374 points. This is not surprising: If you trade CFDs or are active online in stock trading, you should consider a possible disappointment. Or the fact that the market could react with a “sell the news” – after all, the DAX was heading for the seventh profit day in a row. We know more at 13:45.

Grande Draghi Final

Many brokers are hoping for a last big shot from the head of the ECB, which will help the shares to rise strongly. Not only with a bazooka, but perhaps even with a big Bertha. After all, Mario Draghi first raised some expectations at the central bank meeting in Sintra and then at the latest ECB meeting in July. A further reduction in the deposit rate for banks is now priced into the financial market; it is already minus 0.4 percent. In addition, the resumption of the purchase program for bonds with a volume of 20 to 30 billion euros per month is a foregone conclusion for many stock market participants. If not, the DAX is likely to plummet and the euro will rise.

Customs dispute gesture by Trump

US President Donald Trump was delighted with the second major stock market theme. He twittered on Wednesday that as a gesture of goodwill he would postpone the increase of tariffs for Chinese goods worth 250 billion dollars from October 1 to October 15. The increase is to take place from 25 to 30 percent. The step was taken at the request of Deputy Prime Minister Liu He against the background of the 70th birthday of the People’s Republic of China. By the way, China showed little gratitude: The Middle Kingdom has just concluded an agreement with Argentina on the first import of soya and has thus hit the US farmers.
In the People’s Republic, the CSI-300 rose by 1.1 percent to 3,972 points. Japan’s leading index, the Nikkei 225, closed 0.8 percent higher in Tokyo at 21,760, and at times climbed to its highest level for more than four months.

Winnings in New York

The US stock exchange officials are counting on a solution to the customs conflict and attacked courageously on Wednesday. The Dow Jones gained 0.9 percent to 27,137 points and closed at its high for the day, its sixth consecutive gain. The S&P 500 gained 0.7 percent to 3,000 points. The Nasdaq Composite rose 1.1 percent to 8,169 positions. Once again Trump wedged against the US central bankers, whom he described as fools – they were finally supposed to lower interest rates.

Series of hits against the oil bulls

The bulls in the oil market had to put up with several violent blows. Initially, the Energy Information Agency’s inventory data was mixed – as usual, you can find all the data here: Market Mover

In addition, the announcement in the market that the Russian central bank considers an oil price of 25 dollars to be possible for 2020 was being prepared. This was only one possible scenario. But who knows – perhaps there is a Kremlin strategy behind it to conquer market shares in oil with a low price. In line with this, deeper cuts in OPEC’s oil production seemed to be off the table, at least at the meeting in Abu Dhabi there was no real determination to do so.
According to Bloomberg, US President Donald Trump actually discussed the relaxation of sanctions against Iran and even a meeting with Iranian President Hassan Rouhani. That was the real reason for the departure of security advisor John Bolton. The hardliner exploded in the Oval Office on Monday when Finance Minister Steven Mnuchin supported the plan to renegotiate with Iran, they said, citing unnamed sources. This means: It is possible that Iranian oil will again come onto the market in larger quantities.

This is what the day brings

In addition to the ECB meeting, there are two other relevant dates in the calendar.
At 2:30pm US consumer prices for August are due.
At the same time, the first weekly applications for unemployment benefits in the USA will run over the tickers.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

11.09.2019 – Daily report. The bulls don’t give up control of the German stock exchange. In the middle of the week, signals of easing tensions from China in the customs dispute with the USA are giving rise to new optimism. CFD traders, who are active in the energy market, are also looking forward to the latest events in the oil sector – a lot is happening here.

The DAX climbs upwards

The recovery on the Frankfurt stock market continues: In early Wednesday’s trading, the German benchmark index gained 0.8 percent to 12,372 points. Yesterday, Tuesday, the DAX had made a U-turn, offset its losses and closed in positive territory. Despite the European Central Bank’s forthcoming intervention tomorrow, investors took up again. Many brokers, like the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), also hoped for government stimuli. The DIW has called for a multi-billion government investment program to prevent a possible recession in Germany. The state should pay out 30 billion euros in additional public investments over 15 years.

Beijing signals willingness to negotiate

Beijing also sent a gesture of good will to Washington in the customs dispute. China presented a list of 16 US products to be exempted from punitive tariffs. These include medicines for cancer, medical equipment and chemicals. The state newspaper “Global Times” spoke of a “gesture of goodwill” in the trade dispute before both sides resume negotiations at the beginning of October. Hu Xijin, the editor-in-chief of the Times, who is well connected with the communist power apparatus, twittered that China was doing this to mitigate the negative consequences of a trade war, and that the decision would benefit both companies from the People’s Republic and the USA. The “South China Morning Post”, which is also close to the state, added that the exceptions should take effect from 17 September.
However, as whey and fish meal are also on the list – both serve as animal feed – the step also proves the need in China, where swine fever is raging and meat prices are skyrocketing. Beijing is also facing the threat of American companies emigrating. The US television channel CNBC reported on a survey conducted by the American Chamber of Commerce in Shanghai. According to the Chamber of Commerce, many US companies fear a collapse in business due to customs duties and want to withdraw from China as quickly as possible. 333 American companies in China were surveyed.

The reaction to the most recent development varied: The Chinese CSI-300 fell by 0.7 percent to 3,930 points. In Tokyo, on the other hand, the Nikkei 225 closed 1 percent higher at 21,598 points.

Late Activity in New York

Investors in New York had only dared to take out cover late the night before. The Dow Jones saved a plus of 0.3 percent to 26,909 points at the closing bell. The S&P 500 closed at 2,979 points, hardly measurable in the profit zone; in contrast, the Nasdaq 100 fell by 0.2 percent to 7,815 positions.

Oil boom signals

There are several factors that currently make oil interesting for CFD traders – volatility is rising here and there are some indications that oil prices might be rising. Initially, prices slipped after US President Donald Trump dismissed National Security Advisor John Bolton. The Super Falcon is regarded as an extreme hardliner towards Iran.

However, the industry is currently discussing an analysis by Raymond James & Associates that the US oil industry is at the end of its productivity road. The production volume is rising much weaker than expected, the investment bank reported. The production rate for the first 30 days of production (IP-30) has increased by up to 40 percent at the beginning of the decade. However, IP-30 fell to 11 percent in 2017, recovered to 15 percent in 2018 and collapsed to 2 percent in the first seven months of 2019, reports Raymond James.

Saudi Arabia could also reduce OPEC production. Many brokers suspect that the Saudis urgently need a higher oil price because of Saudi Aramco’s IPO. Perhaps we are already getting clarity from the current energy conference in Abu Dhabi – so you should keep an eye on the regular market updates on your trading platform. In addition, OPEC’s monthly report will be published today. And further the weekly US crude oil stock data of the national Energy Information Administration (EIA) are lining up at 16.30 o’clock.

This is what the day brings

The US producer prices for August at 4.30 p.m. are the only really date of importance on the agenda. As always, you will find the overview here: Market Mover

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.