Gold 1870,44
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EURUSD 1,1583
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DJIA 26886
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OIL.WTI 42,05
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DAX 13137,92
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On Wednesday, everything was unchanged in the markets. The dollar was falling, and risky assets were growing. So let’s talk about global… fairy tales. Kids believe in miracles until they’re 6 or 7. Adults don’t believe at all… or rather they didn’t until recently.
S&P 500
The American stock market is now at levels above the beginning of this year. That being said:
– US unemployment rose from 3.6% to 11%.
– Budget deficit in the US, up to 20% of GDP.
– Government debt exceeded 100% of GDP.
– Oil industry is in ruins, oil production fell by 20%.
– Travel and airlines are actually bankrupt.
– Retail sales fell sharply
– GDP will decrease by 6-8% as a result of the year
Now let’s take a look at geo and domestic politics:
– Tensions with China escalated sharply over the events in Hong Kong
– The coronavirus epidemic is no longer at its peak in Europe, but in the United States.
– Mass demonstrations and pogroms against the backdrop of African-American police deaths
At the same time, American stocks are at their historical peaks. Are you gonna say that’s crazy? Yes! That’s crazy. You’re saying it’s impossible to understand? Yes! It’s impossible to understand it.
Gold
In the last 2 days yellow metal has grown by another $50. There is also $50 left to its historical maximum, which was 9 years ago. It seems that the nerves of investors and speculators simply did not hold out and gold is being bought at any price. And they’re doing it right, given that no one is waiting for it below $2,000 per troy ounce by the end of the year.
Bitcoin
But Bitcoin, as we noted yesterday, refuses to grow again. He may have played back the biggest fall that happened in March long ago. We would like to remind you that in just 1 day the first cryptocurrency decreased by 2 times. Then there was a very fast rebound, which was provided by the buyers. But there are no new buyers in the market yet. Therefore, the demand cannot exceed the supply in any way. In any case, this situation will not last long. From the beginning of September, the active players will return to the market, and will sharply move a pair of bitcoin/dollar in one direction or another.
What’s waiting for us today?
14:30 Initial weekly unemployment benefit claims in the United States
16:00 Consumer confidence level (preliminary) in EU for July
17:00 US Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas industrial activity level for July
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