03.01.2021 – Now the predictions for 2022 are getting blatant: The Dutch Rabobank sees signs of a total system change. And it names ten scenarios, some of them extremely unusual, that could shake up the financial market. We don’t want to deprive you of this.
Hear, hear: “Outrageous Predictions 2022: Revolution” is what SaxoStrats calls its prediction for the coming year. The analysts visibly made an effort to illuminate even dark corners and make quite original suggestions. Rabobank’s conclusion: With culture wars raging all over the world, it is no longer a question of whether we will have a socio-economic revolution, but only when and how. Ten unbelievable events could cause turmoil in the financial market:
1. the plan to end fossil fuels gets a rain check. In other words, because of rising inflation and the threat of unrest, a policy reversal is underway that is now relying on fossil fuels again. The comment of the Bernstein bank to it: Quite possible – that would mean going long on oil. Germany is already the only country with green re-education fantasies. In the U.S., Build Back Better with strong eco-investments is on hold due to Senate opposition. France or the Netherlands are going nuclear.
2. faceplants on youth exodus: young people are turning away because Facebook’s plan to turn personal data into money is repugnant to them. We think: Possible scenario. But first we need an alternative. If the thesis does come true as believed: Short Facebook and the Nasdaq.
3 The US mid-term election brings constitutional crisis: Possibly a stalemate will arise in Congress, which will be paralyzed as a result. Bernstein Bank thinks: Congress passes the budget. If the stalemate occurs: Short overall market – Dow Jones, S&P 500. However, rather short – the stock market usually shakes off political disruptive factors quickly again.
US inflation reaches above 15% on wage-price spiral: Inflation could climb to heights not seen since the 1970s. Bernstein Bank opinion: Absolutely realistic assessment. Initially boost for equities due to flight to real assets and rising corporate profits. Bullish for gold, energy and cryptos. But if corporations can no longer pass on higher prices to consumers and unrest threatens, short for overall market.
5. EU Superfund for climate, energy and defense announced, to be funded by private pensions: equivalent of $3 trillion could be withdrawn from pension funds. Our interpretation: Absolutely possible – anything is possible for the EU. Positive for green stocks, but political fallout possible and overall burden on the market. Pensioners don’t like to be plundered.
6. women’s reddit army takes on the corporate patriarchy: a feminist attack on corporations that don’t take gender equality too seriously. Our comment: A footnote in the overall market, rather unimportant. Especially since many companies are already overreacting to gender and diversity issues.
7. India joins the Gulf Cooperation Council as a non-voting member: Global alliances could be thrown into disarray by a new de-globalization and rising energy prices. More pressure on Iran. Bernstein Bank commentary: could come to pass. Further strengthening of oil producers – a renewed factor for long oil.
8. Spotify disrupted due to NFT-based digital rights platform: artists could recoup revenue through blockchain technology. Our comment: irrelevant.
9. new hypersonic tech drives space race and new cold war: a new arms race looms. Bernstein Bank commentary: boost factor for defense stocks, rather than threat of war – the balance of terror held even in the Cold War.
10. medical breakthrough extends average life expectancy 25 years: The extended life would raise ethical questions and bring unexpected consequences for budget planning. Our 50 cents: Science fiction for now. If so, after Corona, another boost for the pharmaceutical sector.
That leaves our contribution to the thesis revolution: Maybe Rabobank is right. But on one point it didn’t mention: Corona. We wonder whether the skepticism in the population against the planned vaccination subscription and looming permanent boosters, as well as against the exclusion of the unvaccinated, is not growing. Finally soon also twice vaccinated are only unvaccinated lepers. We are therefore curious whether the new year will be truly revolutionary – and wish good luck with trades and investments!
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