Where is the S&P 500 going?

By 12/04/2021News

Gold  1737,49

EURUSD   1,1887

DJIA  33585,50

OIL.WTI  59,315

DAX   15274,50

After breaking through the 4,000 level, the rise in the main US index accelerated. What should traders expect in the short and medium term (with a horizon to the end of this year). Let’s sort it out together.

S&P 500

S&P 500

As usual, before the 4,000 level, there were many traders talking about an imminent reversal, an inflated bubble and the collapse of the US stock market. And we remind our subscribers that individual traders have been waiting for a crash since 2009. Back then they expected a double bottom after the mortgage crisis of 2008-2009. That bottom never materialized.
In 2010, everyone was waiting for a new crisis, after problems started in the Emirates. Further there was a popular idea to short the index from the levels of 1600 and 1700, etc. And the index continues to rise.
Passive investors are slowly making a fortune. And the armageddonians keep losing money. When will it all end? Maybe very soon. Or maybe it will last another 10 years with each new crisis being flooded with new Central Bank money.
Traders must remember the most important thing. The trend is our friend. And that the American market is always rising. Yes, there are drawdowns and even very strong corrections. But they are always followed by new highs. So the easiest strategy is to buy the index on drawdowns. Until the market reverses completely. As a reminder, many have been waiting for such a reversal for 12 years.

What levels might we see this year?

The 4500 level is easily attainable from a TA perspective. Indeed, it is less than 10% away, which is even less than the annual average volatility of the index. Could the move go higher and reach the 5000 level on a Christmas rally?
That is also possible. Three conditions have to coincide:
1. Yields on 10-year US Treasuries will not exceed current levels
2. The pandemic will come to its logical conclusion in the US as a result of vaccination by the end of the summer
3. The VIX volatility index will continue to decline, giving investors the opportunity to leverage even more

11.00 EU retail sales for February

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.