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12.07.2019 – Daily report. The DAX is grinding hard. While Wall Street is chasing records in the wake of the recently fueled interest rate fantasy, German equities are making no headway. This is due to various profit warnings in recent days. On Friday, Daimler caused a bad mood.

Even Daimler is in crisis now

On Friday morning, the DAX moved sideways, trading around 0.1 percent lower. All in all, no real fun for investors in online stock trading. In this tough market, it can make sense to prefer CFDs in the short term. In any case, as long as you rely on Germany’s best CFD broker with a Bafin license. No miracle, this stagnation at the stock exchange. The latest news looks very much like a swan song of the domestic economy. Deutsche Bank is building up a bad bank and dismissing a massive number of employees; the pictures remind us of the exit of the Lehman Brothers employees. Then BASF, Krones or Aumann. The German energy companies were almost destroyed by the energy revolution anyway.

Green works

And now Daimler. On Friday morning, the car manufacturer reported a weak outlook for the year as a whole. For diesel alone – which was not an issue at all before the greening of the Republic – provisions were increased by 1.6 billion euros. And EBIT is now expected to be “significantly below last year’s level”, after having previously targeted earnings at the previous year’s level. Eco works!

Yet researchers from the Finnish University of Turku, almost simultaneously with scientists from the University of Kobe, have shown that there is virtually no human influence on possible climate change. The fact that the climate is always changing anyway can be seen from the fact that icy Greenland was once grassland – and could therefore be populated by the Vikings.

Asia is in good spirits

And what about the trade dispute between China and the USA? Agony. For example, Trump complained yesterday via Twitter that China is not buying large quantities of products from US farmers. Beijing had actually promised this after the recent ceasefire at the G-20 summit. Nevertheless, the CSI-300 rose by 0.6 percent to 3,809 positions. In Japan, the Nikkei rose by 0.2 percent to 21,686 points.

27.000

However, the U.S. was still in a buying mood yesterday. The Dow Jones Industrial passed the 27,000 mark for the first time in its history on Thursday. The high-tech index Nasdaq 100 also reached a new high, and the index is now close to 8,000. The reason: Fed head Jerome Powell has now confirmed hopes of interest rate cuts in the Senate. He told the Banking Committee that a “slightly more cyclical monetary policy” was probably “appropriate”. The lower inflation rate in the USA had already pleased Wall Street before.

However, many investors first took profits, especially as the trump report in the customs dispute provided a small stopper. At the end of trading, the Dow was still trading at 27,088 points with a plus of 0.9 percent. The Nasdaq 100 even suffered a minus of 0.1 percent and closed at 7,897 points. The market-wide S&P 500 lost 2,999.91 jobs with a gain of 0.2 percent.

Crypto no good

Otherwise Trump slowed down the euphoria on Twitter regarding crypto currency. If Facebook and other companies wanted to become a bank, they would need a concession and the same regulation as any other national or international bank. And: “I’m not a fan of Bitcoin and other crypto currencies.” Unregulated cryptosystems could promote illegal activities such as drug trafficking. The only true US currency is the dollar.

Well, if the central banks lower the intrinsic value of money through low interest rates, then people are looking for alternatives that cannot be manipulated. For example gold, silver, land, real estate or even crypto. We are curious whether the various providers will soon be legally stopped, which could dry up the trade and bring joy on the short side.

This is what the day brings

By the weekend, the air in global trade should be out for the time being. Because apart from the US producer prices, which are announced at 2:30pm, there is no really important date on the agenda.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades and a relaxing weekend!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

11.07.2019 – Daily report. It‘s back: the hope for cheaper money. It was rekindled by Fed chief Jerome Powell. But today he is speaking again before the Senate in Washington. Ergo the stock exchange members wait for the moment. Especially as the upcoming US economic data in the afternoon have to confirm the expectations.

Frankfurt continues to wait

The skepticism doesn’t want to go away. By Thursday midday, the DAX had risen by 0.2 percent to 12,397 points.

In his statement to the House of Representatives on Wednesday, Powell left the door open for an interest rate cut. The Master of the Money said, “Uncertainty over trade conflicts and concerns about the global economy have recently weighed on the outlook for the US economy”. However, he also added: “Inflationary pressure remains subdued. This is likely to result in only a moderate cut in interest rates. But at least: a strong labour market report had just left the air out of the interest rate fantasy. Now it probably depends on the US inflation data scheduled for the afternoon whether an interest rate hike of a quarter or half a percentage point will be necessary. Today Powell also addresses the Senate’s Banking Committee.

Cheap money in China too?

The increased hope of a US interest rate cut in the near future has also given the Asian stock markets some wings. The Japanese Nikkei index lost 0.5 percent of its trading value at 21,634 points. In view of developments in the USA, stock market participants in China also hoped for a loosening of monetary policy and government economic stimulus programs. Nevertheless, the CSI 300 with the 300 largest listed companies in mainland China closed almost unchanged at 3,785 points.

New records in New York

The prospect of cheap money had pushed the indices in New York the night before. As a result of the Powell speech, Dow Jones Industrial, S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 temporarily reached new highs. However, profits melted away again. The Dow recorded a plus of 0.3 percent to 26,860 points at the closing bell. The S&P 500 rose by 0.5 per cent to 2,993 points, in the meantime it had even made it over the 3000 mark. The Nasdaq 100 finally increased by one percent to 7,903 points.

Powder keg Persia

CFD traders had to pass a small stress test in the oil market. Apparently the Iranian Navy tried to capture a British tanker. This was reported by the US television channels CNN and Fox News on the evening before, in agreement with sources from the US government. According to them, five armed boats of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards had approached a British tanker near the Strait of Hormuz. London confirmed the incident on Thursday morning: three Iranian naval boats tried to stop the British oil tanker “British Heritage”. Accordingly, the British warship “HMS Montrose” pushed the Iranian boats away. Shots were not fired. Iran denied the incident. The action underlines how quickly the situation in the Persian Gulf can escalate.

This is what the day brings

CFD traders should keep an eye on their trading platform today and scan the regular market updates. For one thing, from 4:00pm on, Fed Chairman Powell can swirl around in front of the Senate with every half-set of Wall Street, DAX, Dollar and Treasuries. But volatility can be good for quick deals.

First, US consumer prices for June are due at 2:30pm.

At the same time, the weekly initial applications for unemployment benefits and real incomes in June are running on the screens.

The OPEC Monthly Bulletin will also be released today.

As an encore, Fed Vice President Randal Quarles – who has voting rights in the FOMC – will give a speech to the Bipartisan Policy Center in Washington D.C. at 7:30pm.

The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

11.07.2019 – Special report. A tornado is brewing over Wall Street: The arrest of shady billionaire Jeffrey Epstein for abuse and prostitution of minors could make the Watergate scandal look like a mild breeze. And sweep half of Washington away. Can Epstein overthrow US President Donald Trump? Or will the affair destroy the Democrats? We are looking at possible consequences for the stock market.

Orgies with very young girls

Epstein had been arrested on Saturday. Previously, investigators had felted his Manhattan estate and confiscated nude photos. The New York prosecutor’s office accuses the financial advisor, who specializes in billionaires, of trafficking in sexual activities and the conspiracy to commit this trade. He talks about orgies with dozens of young girls in villas in New York, Florida, on the Caribbean private island Little St. James and on board his private jet; nickname: “Lolita Express”. The ex-Bear Stearns banker rejected all allegations. Maybe he’ll unpack to secure a deal. Which will probably destroy some of the greats of high society. Bill Clinton and Donald Trump belonged to the former circle of Epstein.

Three possible stock market scenarios

If the investigation reveals that 1) Trump belonged to or knew about the pedophile ring, then he is history. Impeachment is not excluded. Dow Jones, S&P 500 and co. might dive down violently. Trump, as a Republican, is traditionally business-friendly and stands for low taxes. It’s not for nothing that Wall Street has just broken new records. In addition, the Chinese will sit out the current customs dispute and wait for a new president if the worst comes to the worst.

If, on the other hand, 2) the Democrats around Bill Clinton were deeply entangled in the sex swamp, then Trump can celebrate the re-election and also conquer Congress. In this case, Wall Street should cheer. A middle course is also possible: 3) All are damaged, but the matter is settled quietly. E.g. because Epstein is silent in return for a lax punishment or maybe suddenly and unexpectedly dies. As macabre as that may be, it would be neutral for the stock market.

The old case is reopened

The current arrest reopens a case from 2008. The prosecutor in Florida at this time and current labor minister Alexander Acosta once negotiated a dubious deal. Due to the out-of-court settlement, which had been sealed so far, Epstein received an 18-month prison sentence for buying prostitution and was released after 13 months. He was spared proceedings before a federal court. In addition, there was daily release, as research by the “Miami Herald” showed. However, the New York public prosecutor’s office does not feel bound by the 2008 deal, as it must be made possible for the then victims to bring Epstein to justice.

Trump in focus

Immediately a quote from Trump in “New York Magazine” in 2002 moved into the media focus: “I have known Jeff for 15 years. A fantastic guy. You can have a lot of fun with him. It’s even said of him that he likes beautiful women as much as I do, and many of them are younger ages. No question – Jeffrey enjoys his social life.” “Spiegel Online” also attracted another from 2016, Trump was sued by a woman for raping her at the age of 13 in Epstein’s New York villa. Trump denied the accusations, the woman later withdrew her because, according to her lawyer, she had received death threats.”

What is rarely mentioned is the fact that Trump once threw Epstein out of his golf club Mar-e-Lago because he threw himself at a minor girl. This is proven by the police files in Palm Beach. Trump also apparently broke off contact when the unappetizing details about Epstein were boiling up after 2008. Furthermore, even the Trump-critical website Vice.com could not establish a close connection between the two, as it had to admit after drilling the Washington Times. Vice.com had reported social contacts with Trump in January 2016, including dinner parties and two flights. According to the Radar publication, Trump was one of dozens from New York’s high society who maintained contact with Epstein. Trump was also the only one who, according to Bradley Edwards himself, helped Florida attorney Bradley Edwards deal with a young woman’s indictment in 2018.

Little Black Book

Meanwhile, reports about Epstein’s address book are circulating again; a former employee named Alfredo Rodriguez had stolen the “Little Black Book” and tried to sell it for 50,000 dollars in 2009. Which earned him a conviction for obstruction of justice. As life goes, Rodriguez died behind bars after 18 months. In the book that was leaked to the “Gawker”, according to an article from 2015, there were hundreds of names with well-known personalities and presumed victims. And about 50 names had been encircled by Rodriguez. Besides Ehud Barak and Tony Blair also Donald Trump and Bill Clinton.

Democrats in the Sex Swamp

The “New York Post” wrote in 2016 that according to the logbooks of his orgy plane Bill Clinton, had been on board exactly 26 times between 2001 and 2003 alone. He is also said to have been a guest on the private sex island of Epstein. In 2006, Epstein is said to have donated 25,000 dollars to the Clinton Foundation. Clinton had recently asserted that he had flown only four times with Epstein and that he had not talked to Epstein for more than ten years.

The research work of the republican journalist Anne Coulter also makes other democrats and the media look bad. According to this, it was above all the public prosecutor Barry Krischer, who acted on the Democrats’ ticket, who choked off the case after investigations had been ongoing since 2005. Which led to an angry open letter from Palm Beach police chief Michael Reiter, who also addressed George W. Bush’s administration directly. The only activated Acosta in the context of a federal investigation – and Acosta has finally reached a pursuit, even if only the lazy deal, as Coulter judges. In addition, the democratic Palm Beach County had helped Epstein to an open arrest.

According to Coulter, all this was reported by Fox News and the Washington Times, but not by MSNBC or CNN. No wonder, Epstein was apparently above all a supporter of the Democrats. According to Coulter, Epstein is said to have transferred a total of 145,000 dollars to Bill Clinton, John Kerry, Hillary Clinton, and Chuck Schumer, today’s Democratic faction leader in the US Senate. According to Coulter, Ron Burkle, a billion-dollar investor and financier of the Democratic Party, also flew aboard the “Lolita Express”.

Furthermore, the address book already mentioned should contain the names of dignitaries and supporters of the Democrats. For example, the former governor of New Mexico, Bruce King. Dito the likewise former governor of New Mexico and former democratic Presidential candidate Bill Richardson. And also Peter Soros, the nephew of billionaire George Soros. But also billionaire Leslie Wexner, close business partner of Epstein, as well as supporters of the Republicans Mitt Romney and Jeb Bush.

Deep State at Work?

The case may have an unprecedented political component. The Daily Beast blog just reported that Acosta was whistled back in his investigations before 2008: Epstein is outside his pay grade and belonged to the secret service (“belonged to intelligence”), Acosta admitted in interviews about his appointment as White House Labour Minister. Anne Coulter also thinks in this direction. She told the radio station 790 KABC that Epstein was only the frontman of a powerful network. Epstein wanted the girls to tell him about the preferences of his guests. So there is blackmail in the room. The latest rumour: nobody on Wall Street really knows how Epstein got rich. By the way, the British “Mirror” reported as early as January 2015 that Prince Andrew had been secretly filmed having sex with a minor in an Epstein estate.

Despite the possible existence of incriminating material, Epstein was apparently dropped. Or the public prosecutor’s office of the Southern District of New York is stepping on the feet of extremely powerful people. The case is also monitored by the Public Corruption Unit according to the Daily Mail. Which could mean that in the Sweetheart deal of 2008 or in the time in between not everything was right.

So get your own picture of what’s going on here and which stock market scenario will be the most likely – and get ready. The Bernstein Bank wishes you successful investments despite this unappetizing affair!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

10.07.2019 – Daily report. No progress on the Frankfurt stock market. The stock market is eagerly awaiting the appearance of Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in the US House of Representatives. Is he letting the air out of the bloated hopes of interest rates? The welfare and woe of Wall Street and global trade currently depend on this performance.

Tedious business in Frankfurt

It’s all so tedious on the floor. The DAX crumbled by 0.3 percent on Wednesday afternoon. By the way, the German leading index closed a gap in the price chart the day before, we had already pointed out this possibility days ago.

No wonder that things didn’t move ahead recently: At 4 pm German time is the most important date of the week. US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivers his semi-annual report on the economic situation to the US Congress in Washington. Most recently, a strong labour market report had dampened hopes of an interest rate cut. Should Powell now disappoint Wall Street’s hope for fresh, cheap money, then you can expect – depending on Powell’s choice of words – a strong price slide. But as a CFD trader you can also earn good money when prices fall, unlike investors in online stock trading.

Standstill in Asia

In view of the hoped-for news from the Fed, a factlet in the trade dispute between China and the USA receded into the background. According to CNBC, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce confirmed that on Tuesday there had been a telephone conversation between Chinese Deputy Prime Minister Liu He and Trade Minister Zhong Shan on the one hand and US Representative Robert Lighthizer and Trade Secretary Steven Mnuchin on the other. After all – they are talking to each other again.

The fact that the Chinese can make good use of a deal is proven by the producer prices in China. They stagnated surprisingly in June. This development raised concerns about a slowdown in production.

Accordingly, the Chinese CSI-300 closed 0.2 percent lower at 3,786 points. The Nikkei 225 also slipped by 0.2 percent to 21,533 points.

A little courage in New York

Investors in New York had shown a little more courage the evening before. The leading US index, the Dow Jones, fell by 0.1 percent to 26,783 points on Tuesday. But the S&P 500 closed 0.1 percent higher at around 2,980 points. The Nasdaq 100 even advanced by 0.5 percent to 7,827 points.

A storm is on its way

If we look at the arrest of the paedophile billionaire Jeffrey Epstein, it could be a super tornado, messing up the stock market and sweeping away half of Washington. But probably not US President Donald Trump – even though the left-wing German and American media are currently trying to portray Trump as Epstein’s “friend”. Trump had praised Epstein as a buddy in 2002 and met him again and again at various parties of the trendy series. But Trump threw Epstein out of his golf club in Mar-e-Lago when he threw himself at a young girl. Trump was also the only one who, according to Florida lawyer Bradley Edwards, supported the reopening of dozens of rape cases in 2018.

No, it was apparently the Democrats who, after everything that is brought to the surface by small blogs outside the mainstream, held the protective hand over Epstein. And not only Bill Clinton, who is said to have flown 26 times with Epstein’s Orgien-Jet. If these points prove true, then the Democrats would probably be destroyed in the next presidential election.

This is what the day brings

Last but not least, the view of the well-filled appointment calendar remains.

At 04:00pm the stocks in the US wholesale are announced.

This is followed at 04:30pm by the weekly oil report. On the evening before the interest federation American Petroleum Institute (API) had already reported for the past week a decrease of the oil reserves around 8,13 million barrels.

At 08:00pm finally the minutes of the Fed meeting are published.

The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

09.07.2019 – Daily report. That’s how fast the wind turns on the stock market. Last week, the DAX had reached an annual high. And now the leading index is crumbling strongly. On the one hand, BASF’s profit warning is depressing sentiment. On the other hand, the Federal Reserve in particular is paralysing the stock market – as of today, a series of important dates is imminent. Will the Fed lower interest rates despite the strong US job data from Friday or not?

The Fed speaks – the market stops

The handbrake in the global market is expected to remain on until Thursday. Until then, the stock market will be listening to monetary policy makers. At first, all broker eyes will be on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell at 2.45 p.m. today. He will give a speech at 14.45 German time in Boston on the topic “Stress Testing: A Discussion and Review”. Perhaps he will drop one or the other hint in the opening speech of the Fed symposium on the subject of interest rate cuts.
Finally, at 4 pm, James Bullard, head of the St. Louis-Fed, who is entitled to vote in the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak at the OMFIF Foundation in St. Louis (Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum). Two weeks ago he had spoken out in favour of an insurance rate cut as security against falling inflation.
Tomorrow, Wednesday, Fed Chairman Powell will finally face the Senate’s Banking Committee in Washington. He will continue to answer questions on monetary policy from members of parliament until Thursday at the traditional six-monthly hearing.

The DAX dives into the abyss

Against this backdrop, no major equity exposures were expected on Tuesday. The DAX slipped by around 1.3 percent by noon.
In the previous week, the leading index had reached 12,656 points, its highest level since August last year. The DAX was also depressed by the negative target from New York and a profit warning from BASF. Earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) and before special items are expected to slide by up to 30 percent below the previous year’s level. Previously, the Group had expected an increase of between one and ten percent.

Minus in Asia

The Asia Dow closed 0.4 percent lower at around 3,300 points. The Asian stock markets were overshadowed by the conflict between Japan and South Korea. In the dispute over compensation payments for South Korean forced laborers, Tokyo has introduced export controls for materials needed by Korean chip manufacturers. Japan’s leading index, the Nikkei 225, nevertheless closed with a moderate plus of 0.1 percent to 21,565 points.

China buys gold

What remains is an interesting footnote from Beijing: the Chinese central bank has increased its gold holdings for the seventh consecutive month. As read in the financial blog “ZeroHedge” citing the People’s Bank of China website, it increased its reserves by 10.3 tons. In the six months to May, China had already bought almost 74 tonnes. Obviously another step by the Chinese away from the dollar and US Treasuries.

Losses in New York

The falling hope of a rate cut had weighed on Wall Street the previous evening. The Dow Jones Industrial fell by 0.4 percent to 26,806 points the previous evening. The S&P 500 fell by 0.5 percent to 2,976 points. The Nasdaq 100 slipped 0.7 percent to 7,786 points. All three indices set new records last Wednesday.

This is what the day brings

Apart from the Fed’s requests to speak mentioned at the beginning, only a few dates are scheduled for Tuesday.
Thus at 10:30pm of German time the weekly inventory data of crude oil, which are announced by the private American Petroleum Institute, line up.
The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

08.07.2019 – Daily report. Good is bad on Wall Street – and therefore also in Frankfurt. The American labor market is currently proving too robust. This lowers hopes of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve. And so the DAX is not making any real headway either.

Scepticism in Frankfurt

Buyers recently lacked the arguments to buy shares. The DAX, for example, moved sideways until noon. Apart from the Fed, Deutsche Bank provided most of the material for discussion. The money house wants to carry out a radical restructuring and cut 18,000 jobs worldwide by 2022, that would be one in five. In addition, the bank will withdraw completely from stock trading and make cuts in bond trading.
There was support for the DAX from the German economy: German exports in May rose by 1.1 percent month-on-month, as the Federal Statistical Office announced on Monday in Wiesbaden. In April, German exports fell by 3.4 percent. But wait – a German economy that is too strong should also slow down the European Central Bank in the event of further interest rate cuts. So good is bad again.

Asia is submerging

The Asian stock markets had already held back in view of the dwindling hope of US interest rates. The Japanese Nikkei recorded a minus of 1 percent to 21,534 points at the close of trading on Monday. Chinese stocks also slipped due to the radio silence in the trade talks between the USA and China. The CSI-300 closed with a minus of 2.3 percent to 3,803 points.

Dampers in New York

Of course, Friday’s surprisingly strong US labour market report also cooled Wall Street’s interest rate euphoria. According to the June report, the US economy created 224,000 jobs in June.
According to the news, the Dow Jones Industrial slipped by up to one percent at times. At the close of trading, however, the minus was only 0.2 percent to 26,992 points. The S&P 500 also fell by 0.2 percent to 2,990 points. The Nasdaq 100 also lost 0.2 percent to 7,841 points. All three indices had climbed to record highs on Wednesday.

Erdogan shoots down the lira

A fine example of politicians sinking their own currency was provided by Turkey. Autocrat Recep Tayyip Erdogan had fired the head of the central bank on Saturday – because interest rates were too high. Murat Cetinkaya has been the head of the central bank since April 2016 and has raised interest rates by a total of 6.25 percentage points to 24 per cent during this time to support the Turkish lira that is crashing. For Erdogan, on the other hand, high key rates were “mother of all evil”. The result: according to the news, the lira has gone into a descent. She had just recovered so nicely.

This is what the day brings

The table for CFD traders is not really rich today.
At best, the Conference Board’s Employment Trend Index could move Wall Street at 4:00pm.
And at 9:00pm consumer credit is due in the USA. That’s it.

The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

08.07.2019 – Special report. Buy when the cannons thunder – this is an old motto on the stock exchange. In fact, it could soon be that time again. Because Iran is making progress on the subject of nuclear armament. It remains to be seen whether the USA, Israel and Great Britain will stand idly by and watch the action. In the event of an intervention, the world faces an oil shock with exploding prices and a collapse of the stock market.

On the way to the mullah bomb

Yesterday, Sunday, a disturbing news hit the market: Iran wants to increase uranium enrichment beyond the permitted level. The 2015 nuclear treaty provides for a maximum limit of 3.67 percent. Iran’s President Hassan Ruhani had previously announced that he would again enrich uranium “indefinitely”. An earlier statement stated that Tehran would enrich to 20 percent. Previously, the country had already exceeded the 300 kilograms of low-enriched uranium it is allowed to retain under the nuclear treaty.
If uranium is 20 percent enriched, the road to the A-bomb is relatively easy. The degree of enrichment required for nuclear bombs is about 90 percent. But most of the problems are with the low percentages, after which things go quite smoothly. Documents available to the IAEA and documents procured by the Israelis prove that Tehran had worked on nuclear weapons and was relatively far advanced.

Sanctions against Iran

In the meantime, Tehran signaled that it would gladly fulfil the contract again. But first the USA would have to drop the sanctions. Which is unlikely. The sanctions recently reduced Tehran’s oil exports from 2.5 million barrels a day to about 300,000 barrels. However, smuggling is flourishing. And the British have just partially stopped it.
British Royal Marines had on Thursday the Iranian supertanker “Grace 1” because of violation of the sanctions before Gibraltar raised, he was on the way to Syria. Tehran announced that it would put a British ship on the chain as a liner. On Friday the clergyman Ayatollah Ali Mowahdei Kermani also threatened the USA that Iran would turn the Persian Gulf into a “red sea” in the event of an attack. He also announced a missile attack on the Israeli nuclear reactor Dimona.
Kermani reacted to a statement made by US President Donald Trump to journalists in Washington: “We will see what happens to Iran. Iran must be very, very careful.” This Wednesday, at the request of the USA, the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is to be convened for a special meeting.

Israel in the sights

Thus also the front course is drawn quite clearly. Iran will try to draw Israel into the war in order to draw Europe and Arabia, which are mostly hostile to Israel, to its side. Tel Aviv has warned on several occasions that it will not accept Iran’s nuclear armament and, if necessary, will act alone, as Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz recently told Isreal Army Radio. At the Herzliya Conference security forum a few days ago he stressed that Iran is leaving the “grey zone” and moving into the “red zone” – which means war.
By the way, Israel, in cooperation with Egypt, has been attacking IS networks and Iranian convoys on Sinai for months. The Egyptians have flooded dozens of tunnels into the Gaza Strip with sewage or sea water, the Israeli air force has destroyed several rocket-loaded truck convoys in the Sinai according to the “Jerusalem Post”.
One thing is clear: Iran has been equipping both Hamas and Hezbollah with short- and medium-range weapons for years – tens of thousands of them are said to be in the meantime. Should these missiles break through the Israeli Iron Dome interceptor on a large scale and even poison gas be used, the Israelis could respond in the worst case with a nuclear strike against the Gaza Strip and southern Lebanon. Hezbollah targets in Syria are also likely to be attacked, but the Russians are likely to get in the way.

Decapitation strike against Tehran

What else is going to happen? Europe is likely to fall back into the old appeasement reflexes and remain passive except for the British. Moscow, Ankara and Beijing will probably protest against an attack, but will probably not intervene in Iran’s favour. The Anglo-Saxons are likely to set off a huge fireworks display in the Persian Gulf. Nobody wants ground troops – so remains a massive, short air strike with bombers and cruise missiles against nuclear research facilities, Iranian naval bases and barracks. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates could take part in an attack. Meanwhile, Israel is likely to attack Hamas and Hezbollah.

Wall Street down – arms industry up

The scenarios for the financial market remain: Wall Street, DAX and co. will probably go to their knees immediately after an attack. Because at the beginning it will be unclear whether it will be a limited blow or a large-scale invasion. In the first case, prices should recover. In the second case, the stock market is likely to slide further. Because if the Americans send their soldiers into a ground war contrary to expectations, then it will probably be bad for a long time, even on the stock market. Oh yes: armaments shares would of course be the exception – a conflict here could send prices up, the longer the stronger.

$250 a barrel?

Which brings us to oil. Needless to say, in the event of a war, the price of oil would hiss upwards. How high? That depends. Iran could close the oil route through the Strait of Hormuz with mines or speedboats. In addition, Iranians could destroy oil facilities and ports of the Saudis and Emiratis.
In a guest article for Oilprice.com in May, Geopolitics Central, a management consultancy specialising in energy, estimated the price of oil at 250 dollars a barrel if exports of 18 million barrels a day through the Persian Gulf fail – at least one fifth of the world market. Note: In such a case, no chart analysis will help, as the worst case has never occurred before. The sky is the limit, therefore, applies to the price of oil.
Washington will probably open the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to reduce the oil shock. In the SPR, gigantic salt domes on the coast of Texas and Louisiana store around 727 million barrels of crude oil, which would cover the entire US consumption for about a month. In addition, US producers would increasingly pump oil. A counter-movement on WTI’s short side would therefore be likely. As high volatility is guaranteed, you should prepare yourself with Germany’s best CFD brokers with Bafin licenses and powerful servers for possible trades at the time of the possible new Gulf War.

Escape into Gold, Yen and Treasuries

Otherwise, investors are likely to flee to the usual safe havens: gold, Japanese yen and American government bonds. CFD traders should keep an eye on these assets in particular and on the crisis in general – and keep a close eye on regular market updates on your trading platform.
The Bernstein Bank wishes us all a peaceful outcome and successful investments in spite of everything!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

05.07.2019 – Daily report. The stock market is waiting for the latest figures on the US labour market. And the return of Wall Street – American trading had remained closed the day before because of “Independence Day”. Data from German industry is also disappointing. The DAX, for example, is stagnating on Friday noon.

Frankfurt moving sideways

No progress on the German stock market. The DAX recently held steady at 12,610 points with a minus of 0.2 percent. On Thursday, the leading index set a new record for the year at 12,659 points, its highest level since August 2018. A quick glance at the chart analysis: the DAX should not close below the 12,519 mark. This opens a gap – and price gaps are normally closed.

German industry not running smoothly

Finally, a damper for investors: German industry suffered a slump in orders in May. The Federal Statistical Office announced on Friday that a total of 2.2 percent fewer orders had been received than in the previous month. Economists had expected much less. It is therefore clear that German industry is in recession. Which some brokers quickly reinterpreted as an argument for a continued loose monetary policy of the European Central Bank.

Bond yields plummet

This confirmed the scepticism of many investors. Accordingly, a lot of capital flowed into the market for European government bonds in search of a safe haven. At minus 0.403 percent, the yield on the ten-year German government bond on Friday was again below the current ECB deposit rate and only slightly above its record low of Thursday. The French 10-year bond had just reached the yield mark of minus 0.12 percent, Belgian 10-year-olds recently recorded negative interest rates for the first time ever, and the Italian 10-year government bond slipped to a 14-month low of 1.67 percent. The comparatively high yield on Italo bonds is, by the way, the reason why it is precisely the crisis-ridden commercial banks that still stock up on such riskier securities.

Asia is holding back

In view of the lack of impetus from Wall Street, investors in Asia had also held back and turnover was quite thin. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 climbed by a moderate 0.2 percent to 21,746.38 points. The Hang Seng lost 0.1 percent to 28,775 points.

New records in New York

On Wednesday, the U.S. indices had set new records with interest rate fantasies spurred on. Three of the most important indicators stormed the price peak: the Dow Jones Industrial as well as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100. The Dow closed in the shortened trading session before Independence Day 0.7 percent higher on the final record of 26,966 points. The S&P 500 rose by 0.8 percent to 2,996 points. The Nasdaq 100 gained 0.7 percent to 7,858 points.

This is what the day brings

This is what the day brings
This afternoon is the economic high point of the Börsenwoche: The official US labour market report for the month of June will be announced at 2.30 pm. Should the report turn out to be too positive, this should let the air out of investors’ hopes for interest rates. Conversely, if the employment and wages figures were to disappoint moderately, this could fuel expectations of falling key interest rates in the USA and drive stock prices higher.

Otherwise, the calendar is only sparely filled. The Bernstein Bank wishes all CFD traders and investors successful investments in online stock trading!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

04.07.2019 – Daily report. Against the backdrop of positive targets from the USA and Asia, the German benchmark index starts today’s trading session with a small gain. At 12,628 points, the stock market barometer is currently trading around 0.2 percent higher. The US stock markets will remain closed today due to the independence day there.

A breather after yesterday’s high for the year

During yesterday’s trading session the Dax reached a temporary high at the level of 12,631 points. Investors expect a somewhat calmer day today. At the close of trading, the leading index lost ground with a gain of 0.7 percent at 12,616 points.

All-time highs before the holiday

For the American indices, yesterday’s trading day means one thing above all else: records. The Dow Jones, the broader S&P500 and the Nasdaq 100 technology exchange closed yesterday’s trading session at new all-time highs. The most recent price rises have been driven primarily by the current hope of further interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve. This hope is fuelled by the current President Trump, who hardly misses an opportunity to exert pressure on the current head of the FED, Powell. As a result of today’s Independence Day, no new impulses are expected from the USA for the trading day.

Mixed picture in Asia

The Japanese Nikkei index gained 0.3 percent over the course of trading, closing at 21,694 points. On the Shanghai Stock Exchange, prices fell slightly.

Small setback for gold

After the “safe haven” of the precious metal was able to gain a solid 1.3 percent to a value of 1436 US dollars per troy ounce on yesterday’s trading day, investors seem to be keeping their feet still for the time being. At present, the price of gold is falling to 1,413 US dollars. This corresponds to a decline of 0.3 percent.

The Bernstein Bank wishes successful trades!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.

03.07.2019 – Daily report. Lots of fresh, cheap money everywhere – that is the hope of investors in global trading. Stock prices are rising as a result. The market applauds Christine Lagarde, the designated new head of the ECB. And in the USA, US President Donald Trump has nominated an advocate of the gold standard for the board of the Federal Reserve – she also advocates the zero interest rate.

Frankfurt with moderate plus

The European Central Bank has given the stock market fresh impetus, the DAX rose by 0.8 percent by Wednesday afternoon. Most brokers predict an ultra-loose monetary policy if the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, takes over the management of the ECB. Lagarde is to succeed Mario Draghi at the helm of the ECB on 1 October, agreed by EU leaders in Brussels on Tuesday. In response, the interest rate on ten-year German government bonds slipped to a new low of minus 0.397 percent.

Losses in Asia

Investors in Asia were cautious in the face of domestic setbacks. The CSI-300 fell by 1.1 percent to 3,894 points. The Chinese Caixin PMI index for services fell below forecasts. The Nikkei 225 fell by 0.5 percent to 21,638 points in the middle of the week. Here reports caused uncertainty that the government in Tokyo wanted to expand export controls to Korea.

New York with profits

On Wall Street, the major indices made moderate gains the night before. The Dow Jones Industrial rose by 0.3 percent to 26,787 positions. The S&P 500 also advanced by 0.3 percent to 2973 points. And the Nasdaq 100 closed 0.4 percent higher at around 7,800 points. Like the Nasdaq indices, the Dow remained within reach of a new record high, thus following the S&P 500 benchmark. A quick look back: according to an evaluation by the Bank of America, the S&P 500 has produced its best June return since 1955.

Gold increasingly in the spotlight

The price of gold fell moderately to 1,425 dollars. In addition a message, which Goldbugs should be pleased: US President Donald Trump has nominated Judy Shelton for the Board of the Federal Reserve. Shelton is currently Executive Director of the European Bank of Reconstruction & Development. And above all, she is regarded as an advocate of the gold standard. Whether the gold cover of the US currency will ever be reintroduced is written in the stars. But gold reserves could rise under her influence. And the precious metal would thus absorb and sterilize a large part of the liquidity that the Fed could perhaps, perhaps more strongly, pump into the market. Just like in China and Russia, where, in addition to the yellow metal, the immense real estate boom has also absorbed freshly printed money and thus prevented hyper-inflation.

Shelton once wrote in the Wall Street Journal that the Fed must end the practice of parking huge amounts of money in district feds and paying them higher interest rates – this does not stimulate the economy. Shelton has also said elsewhere that if she were ever appointed to the Fed board, she would work to bring interest rates to zero within a year or two. The flood of money would be in the taste of Trump, who had repeatedly curbed the Fed because he thought interest rates were too high.

This is what the day brings

The appointment calendar is full to bursting on Wednesday afternoon. At 2:15pm on Wall Street, the ADP data as an indicator for the official labour market report on Friday will be in focus.
At 2:30pm the US trade balance for May will be published. At the same time the first applications for unemployment assistance in the USA are reported.
At 3:45pm , the Markit Purchasing Managers’ Indices for Services and the Combined Index are due.
This will be followed at 4:00pm by US manufacturers’ new orders. At the same time, the purchasing managers’ index for the non-manufacturing sector is reported by the Institute of Supply Management. At 4:30pm, the Energy Information Administration explains the storage volume for crude oil.
As you can see, there are plenty of investment opportunities for CFD traders – prepare yourself with Germany’s best CFD brokers with a Bafin license!

Important Notes on This Publication:

The content of this publication is for general information purposes only. In this context, it is neither an individual investment recommendation or advice nor an offer to purchase or sell securities or other financial products. The content in question and all the information contained therein do not in any way replace individual investor- or investment-oriented advice. No reliable forecast or indication for the future is possible with respect to any presentation or information on the present or past performance of the relevant underlying assets. All information and data presented in this publication are based on reliable sources. However, Bernstein Bank does not guarantee that the information and data contained in this publication is up-to-date, correct and complete. Securities traded on the financial markets are subject to price fluctuations. A contract for difference (CFD) is also a financial instrument with leverage effect. Against this backdrop, CFD trading involves a high risk up to the point of total loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, make sure that you have fully understood all the correlating risks. If necessary, ask for independent advice.